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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tickity Tillyb 5y 26 | S Atkinson — 20% R245 W50 P167 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 57 | 47 (5) | 70 (2) | 75 (1) | 55 (4) | 59 (3) | 56 (3) | 66 (2) | 46 (4) | 46 (5) | 50 (5) | 43 | 23 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 48 | 1 | 2/1JF | |
| 2 | ▶ Bogger Cutieb 2y 16 | S Atkinson — 20% R245 W50 P167 Trainer form — last 3 months | 80 | 48 | 53 | 67 (3) | 56 (4) | 79 (1) | 63 (2) | 77 (1) | 53 (4) | 56 (4) | 48 (4) | 56 (4) | 75 (1) | 28 | 24 | 37 | 20 | 62 | 49 | 4 | 6/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Nicothebumblebeed 2y 15 | G Ralton — 18% R11 W2 P5 Trainer form — last 3 months | 66 | 56 | 44 | 60 (6) | 64 (4) | 69 (5) | 62 (5) | 48 (5) | 60 (6) | 93 (1) | 70 (3) | 84 (2) | 67 (2) | 24 | 41 | 18 | 24 | 69 | 55 | 3 | 10/3 | |
| 4 | ▶ Caseys Barbrab 4y 24 | S Atkinson — 20% R245 W50 P167 Trainer form — last 3 months | 86 | 52 | 50 | 71 (1) | 53 (3) | 43 (5) | 53 (4) | 71 (1) | 56 (2) | 61 (3) | 75 (1) | 74 (1) | 50 (4) | 26 | 22 | 27 | 24 | 62 | 49 | 2 | 3/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Burgess Siunb 3y 25 | C M Dibb — 12% R309 W38 P154 Trainer form — last 3 months | 67 | 49 | 58 | 22 (6) | 41 (1) | 64 (2) | 38 (1) | 36 (1) | 33 (2) | 34 (2) | 50 (4) | 69 (1) | 49 (4) | 16 | 43 | 18 | - | 40 | 36 | 5 | 2/1JF | |
The Pred1 projected winner but a selection that requires careful analysis. Tickity Tilly is an extreme Fader (EP 100, CS 0, pace consistency 92) who will blaze to the front from T1 and hold the rail through every bend. Form reads 69-52-80-67-70 by performance ratings — inconsistent but with a high ceiling. The recent A5 runs returned P56 (3rd) and P66 (2nd), showing she is competitive at this level. Average performance 58 is mid-field but speed 51 and bend 57 are solid. Trainer S Atkinson at 12% is weak. T1 wins 18.2% from 66 runs — neutral, no structural help. The Fader concern at 435m is real — CS 0 means she has zero closing ability. However, the pace consistency of 92 is exceptional — she runs the same race every time, and from T1 the rail savings through every bend may help her sustain the lead longer than normal. Track suit 23 and distance suit 23 are below average. This is a Tentative pick because the Fader profile at 435m is inherently risky, and the condition data shows R1 wins only 16.7% while R2 wins 28.3% — favourites get beaten here.
DANGER — Massive class drop from OR/S2 with field-best speed (56) and track suit (41). The extreme Closer profile (EP 0, CS 100) means she starts last but the quality gap to this field could overcome it. Trainer at 6% is very weak but the dog has the raw ability to win.
Best avg perf in the field (62) with CS 100 closing kick, but EP 0 from the near-dead T2 (15.5%) is a severe combination. Needs everything to fall right. Will close strongly but the starting position and draw count against her.
Strong structural position — T4 dominant at 25.6% and R2 wins 28.3% at A5. The All-Rounder profile avoids the Fader/Closer extremes. Recent P74 A5 win confirms she can win at this grade. The second-best dog in the best draw — a real value angle.
Will provide fierce early pace alongside Tickity Tilly but CS 0 ensures she weakens from bend 3. Distance suit 0 suggests she is a sprint specialist out of her depth at 435m. Pace-maker only.
Unusual rank profile — R2 beats R1 (28.3% vs 16.7%). T4 DOMINANT at 25.6% from 78 runs. This grade rewards the second-best dog who avoids the trouble the favourite attracts. Speed rank 1 is less decisive here (22.6%).
T1:18.2% T2:15.5% T3:18.9% T4:25.6% T5:17.5% T6:18.1%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 435m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tickity Tilly | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Bogger Cutie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Nicothebumblebee | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Caseys Barbra | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Burgess Siun | 100 | 0 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.