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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Baby Cupcakesb 3y 6 | S Atkinson — 20% R245 W50 P167 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 54 | 59 (5) | 69 (2) | 85 (1) | 86 (1) | 65 (3) | 47 (6) | 85 (1) | 65 (3) | 77 (2) | 83 (1) | 45 | 38 | - | 28 | 69 | 58 | 1 | 5/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Fruity Ner Nerd 2y 28 | S R Miller — 14% R216 W30 P99 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 56 | 63 (3) | 58 (3) | 51 (4) | 69 (2) | 56 (4) | 52 (4) | - | - | - | - | 26 | 33 | - | 23 | 57 | 47 | 4 | 8/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Gurtnara Jaxd 3yN/R 5 | K A Kennedy — 24% R95 W23 P55 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 46 | 65 (2) | 66 (3) | 82 (1) | 53 (4) | 49 (5) | 66 (3) | 76 (1) | 69 (2) | 56 (2) | 56 (4) | 35 | 40 | - | 40 | 63 | 54 | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Inclement Magicb 2y 15 | G A Foot — 19% R294 W56 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 44 | 34 (6) | 55 (3) | 47 (6) | 40 (5) | 81 (5) | 58 (1) | 55 (4) | 62 (4) | 46 (3) | - | 25 | 38 | - | 28 | 56 | 47 | 2 | 16/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Dyno Bluebelleb 2y 25 | G A Foot — 19% R294 W56 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 46 | 44 (6) | 56 (4) | 72 (1) | 38 (6) | 44 (6) | 52 (4) | 48 (6) | 54 (4) | 65 (2) | 78 (1) | 43 | 41 | 11 | 38 | 63 | 55 | 3 | 8/13F | |
The Pred1 projected winner and the structural pick. Gurtnara Jax is a Closer (EP 40, CS 73) drawn in T3 — the DOMINANT trap at Star Pelaw 435m A4, winning 27.3% from 55 runs. That is a powerful structural advantage for a dog with the closing speed to exploit it. The form trajectory shows a dog on the upgrade — 61-49-72-47-59 with that P76 last time out winning in A5 before stepping up to A4. Trainer K A Kennedy at 26% is the best trainer win rate in this race by a clear margin, a moderate-tier signal that adds genuine confidence. Suitability scores confirm the fit: track 40, distance 40, trap 35 — comfortably the best suitability mean in the field at 28.75. The class step up from A5 is the only question mark (class suit 0 reflecting the unfamiliar grade), but the P76 last time suggests she is ready for it. At 435m, the Closer profile should time perfectly — sitting behind the pace-setters before picking them off from bend 3 onwards.
DANGER — Best avg perf in field (69) with genuine early pace from the rail. The class drop from A3 gives her a real edge, but CS 50 leaves her vulnerable to the Closer in the dominant T3.
The weakest contender on recent form. Collapsed from P69 to P16-P20 through trials and returned with a modest P51. Speed 43 is field-worst and the Fader profile means she will show early then retreat.
Honest closer but compromised by the T5 draw. The 12.9% trap win rate from 70 runs is the worst on the card and her ratings lack the class edge to overcome it. Will run on for a place at best.
Improving trajectory is compelling (49-56-63-65-72) but the last run suggests the run may be over. No structural trap advantage and the All-Rounder profile leaves her in no-mans-land here. Place chance.
T3 is strongly dominant at 27.3% from 55 runs. R1 composite wins 23.2% with good model separation. Speed rank 1 wins 23.8%, confirming fastest dog usually wins at this trip.
T1:15.7% T2:17.3% T3:27.3% T4:20.0% T5:12.9% T6:15.7%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 435m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Baby Cupcakes | 55 | 50 | Front Runner |
2Fruity Ner Ner | 56 | 41 | Fader |
3Gurtnara Jax | 40 | 73 | Closer |
5Inclement Magic | 43 | 58 | Closer |
6Dyno Bluebelle | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.