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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Princess Pipsieb 3y 36 | N F Carter — 17% R250 W42 P132 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 47 | 67 (1) | 33 (4) | 24 (2) | 23 (3) | 29 (1) | 23 (2) | 25 (2) | 22 (3) | 33 (5) | 20 (4) | 27 | 20 | - | 31 | 25 | 25 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Ropewalk Flyteb 1y 14 | M Mavrias — 18% R345 W63 P181 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 45 | 15 (5) | 18 (6) | 24 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 51 | 51 | - | 30 | - | 21 | 3 | 11/4 | |
| 3 | ▶ Stophers Trickd 1y 4 | G L Davidson — 13% R236 W30 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 27 (6) | 36 (4) | 35 (5) | 28 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 15 | 53 | - | 53 | - | 15 | 6 | 6/4F | |
| 4 | ▶ Stophers Wotsitd 4y 17 | G L Davidson — 13% R236 W30 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 19 (6) | 29 (2) | 26 (4) | 21 (4) | 30 (6) | 28 (1) | 25 (2) | 24 (3) | 27 (3) | - | 47 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 24 | 31 | 5 | 3/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Rydons Dreamb 2y 26 | D Puddy — 16% R91 W15 P46 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 53 | 54 (3) | 54 (4) | 44 (5) | 21 (6) | 25 (5) | 30 (4) | 29 (1) | 53 (2) | 33 (3) | - | 21 | 33 | 37 | 28 | 33 | 30 | 2 | 10/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Hollyhill Melodyb 3y 24 | N F Carter — 17% R250 W42 P132 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 51 | 32 (6) | 23 (2) | 19 (5) | 58 (6) | 45 (2) | 62 (6) | 68 (3) | 68 (2) | 61 (2) | - | 41 | 34 | 15 | 34 | 34 | 36 | 1 | 6/1 | |
Hollyhill Melody takes the pick with the best h3 score in the field at 62.0 — a significant gap over the nearest rival Rydons Dream at 56.8. She's a Closer (EP 51, CSR 59, pace consistency 59) which at 277m is a concern — sprints generally favour front-runners and early pace. However, her form of 2-1-6-4-2 shows she can win and place regularly, with that 1st-place finish demonstrating she has the ability to get to the front when things go right. Average performance of 34 is joint-best with Rydons Dream. Speed of 50 is mid-range and bend rating of 51 gives her reasonable turning ability. T6 wins 19.67% from 244 runs — structurally neutral but above average for this field. Trap suit of 41 is moderate. Trainer N F Carter at 16% is unremarkable. The Closer profile is the main risk — at 277m she needs the pace-setters to come back to her quickly, and the sprint distance may not give her enough runway. But the h3 advantage and form consistency justify the selection.
DANGER: Class drop from D3, best bend rating (53), All-Rounder profile, and Puddy at 28% all positive. But T5 is the second-weakest trap and trap suit of 21 confirms personal struggles from this draw. Clear danger but structurally disadvantaged.
Fascinating early-career runner from the dominant T2 (25%). Extreme Closer profile (CSR 100) with a win last time and trap suit 51 confirming the draw suits. Very limited sample size and weak trainer temper enthusiasm.
Class rise to D4 from the dead T1 box (12.7%). All-Rounder profile is appropriate for sprints but the structural headwind and low track suit (20) make this a tough ask. Capable at her level but not in this position.
Best speed in the field (56) is eye-catching but form has declined badly (3-2-5-4-6). No pace data and weak trainer at 14%. Speed alone isn't enough when the form says the dog isn't firing.
Three wins from four career starts looks impressive but avgP of 0 and trap suit of 15 from the dominant T3 suggest the model lacks confidence. Very early career — could improve dramatically or prove the wins were against weak fields.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 wins 22.85% vs R3 at 18.87% — just 3.98pp gap. But trap bias is very strong with T2 at 25% dominating. Note R2 beats R3 in reverse (14.92% vs 18.87%) — the composite ranks are unreliable at this grade. Trap position and pace profile are the primary factors.
T1:12.7% T2:25% T3:22.07% T4:16.02% T5:14.47% T6:19.67%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 277m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.