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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Devonshire Ladd 2y 5 | D P Brabon — 23% R361 W82 P213 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 40 | 58 (4) | 76 (2) | 78 (2) | 52 (4) | 82 (1) | 70 (5) | 77 (3) | 69 (5) | 80 (1) | 53 (4) | 48 | 35 | 12 | 36 | 62 | 53 | 5 | 7/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Headford Tobyd 2y 16 | R Pattinson — 17% R124 W21 P73 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 34 | 54 | 46 (5) | 65 (4) | 85 (1) | 68 (2) | 73 (2) | 52 (5) | 63 (3) | 60 (2) | 53 (4) | 50 (5) | 64 | 50 | 25 | 39 | 59 | 57 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Beaming Bonob 4y 25 | N F Carter — 17% R250 W42 P132 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 45 | 69 (6) | 39 (3) | 62 (5) | 52 (4) | 47 (5) | 59 (6) | 83 (4) | 72 (1) | 67 (3) | - | 40 | 47 | 42 | 31 | 60 | 51 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Queen Gracieb 1y 12 | R Pattinson — 17% R124 W21 P73 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 47 | 60 (5) | 67 (3) | 85 (1) | 60 (2) | 59 (3) | 73 (3) | 67 (3) | 79 (1) | 67 (2) | 53 (5) | 59 | 51 | - | 40 | 65 | 60 | 2 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Waikiki Darrend 2y 7 | S Mavrias — 17% R242 W42 P134 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 66 | 86 (1) | 53 (6) | 87 (1) | 46 (5) | 67 (4) | 75 (2) | 66 (2) | 47 (6) | 72 (2) | 51 (5) | 43 | 38 | 39 | 38 | 70 | 57 | 1 | 11/4 | |
| 6 | ▶ Swift Glimmerb 2y 26 | D P Brabon — 23% R361 W82 P213 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 57 | 45 (5) | 71 (2) | 64 (3) | 42 (5) | 46 (5) | 52 (5) | - | - | - | - | 20 | 55 | 9 | 23 | 54 | 44 | 6 | 7/4F | |
Waikiki Darren takes the selection with the best h3 score at 87.2 and average performance of 70 — the class of the field by a clear margin. His last race perf of 73 shows he's in good current form, and the trajectory of 2-5-2-1-1 ends with two consecutive wins. He's a Fader (EP 57, CSR 23, PC 50) which at Central Park 491m is not the death sentence it might be at a galloping track — with 44% all-the-way winners, front-runners hold here. His bend rating of 66 is the BEST in the field and crucial at a venue where the first bend decides races. Speed of 54 is competitive. Suitability scores are decent without being outstanding (track 38, distance 38, trap 43, class 39). Trainer Mavrias at 12% is a weak signal. T5 at 15.91% from 176 runs is below average structurally, which is the main concern — but his class edge (avgP 70 vs field avg ~62) is large enough to potentially overcome the trap headwind. The Fader profile combined with that 66 bend rating suggests he'll lead through the first bend and hold on through the remaining bends.
DANGER: Dominant T4 draw (22.3%) with matching trap suit of 59 is the best structural alignment in this race. Consistent form (3-3-3-1-2) and strong track suit (51). But Closer profile at tight Central Park means she needs the pace to collapse, which may not happen with two Faders in the field.
Best trap suitability (64) and above-average T2 draw, but worst speed in the field (34) is a critical weakness at a distance where speed rank matters heavily. Two wins from five show ability but the pace deficit makes it hard to see a route to victory against quicker rivals.
Best speed (55) and class drop from A1 but pure Closer profile at tight Central Park is a severe mismatch. Form of 3-5-4-5-6 doesn't inspire confidence despite the high last race perf of 69. Needs a pace collapse that may not happen.
Last race perf of 81 is the field's best single figure and Brabon at 30% is the best trainer. But pure Closer from borderline dead T1 at a tight track is a fundamental mismatch. Would need everything ahead to stop — which the two confirmed Faders are unlikely to do.
Fader with strong early pace but the most extreme fade in the field (CSR 12). Weakest avgP at 54 and poor distance/trap suitability. Brabon at 30% and track suit 55 are positives but can't overcome the class deficit and extreme fading tendency.
LOW SEPARATION with INVERTED composite ranks — R2 and R3 both beat R1. The model's top pick underperforms at A2 grade, suggesting competitive fields where form is unreliable. T4 at 22.3% is the only structurally dominant trap. Speed rank 1 and 2 both win ~20.4%, confirming speed matters here.
T1:14.87% T2:19.77% T3:15.07% T4:22.3% T5:15.91% T6:18.78%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 491m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Devonshire Lad | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Headford Toby | 53 | 22 | All-Rounder |
3Beaming Bono | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Queen Gracie | 47 | 77 | Closer |
5Waikiki Darren | 57 | 23 | Fader |
6Swift Glimmer | 57 | 12 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.