Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tobergal Gemb 3y 14 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 28 (4) | 25 (3) | 33 (2) | 26 (4) | 34 (2) | 22 (6) | 37 (1) | 33 (2) | 29 (3) | 26 (4) | 21 | 36 | 28 | 36 | 26 | 27 | 4 | 1/1F | |
| 2 | ▶ Shunters Peaceb 3y 5 | D S Davy — 22% R417 W91 P260 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 23 (3) | 25 (2) | 22 (3) | 21 (6) | 32 (2) | 34 (2) | 20 (6) | 27 (2) | 25 (2) | 59 (6) | 46 | 34 | 30 | 34 | 33 | 36 | 1 | 6/4 | |
| 3 | ▶ Most Dapperd 4y 14 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 24 (5) | 33 (1) | 23 (6) | 26 (6) | 24 (3) | 21 (3) | 26 (4) | 24 (3) | 31 (3) | - | 29 | 21 | 36 | 35 | 28 | 28 | 3 | 6/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Tagalong Jessb 3y 5 | D S Davy — 22% R417 W91 P260 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 15 (6) | 12 (6) | 18 (6) | 16 (5) | 15 (6) | 20 (3) | 25 (3) | 28 (1) | 20 (3) | 27 (2) | 24 | 20 | 32 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 6 | 8/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ To Brightb 3y 3 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 19 (5) | 25 (2) | 30 (1) | 25 (3) | 21 (3) | 26 (2) | 21 (4) | 17 (4) | 18 (6) | 20 (5) | 22 | 33 | 10 | 42 | 32 | 31 | 2 | 14/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Kippagh Epicb 3y 13 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 28 (3) | 17 (6) | 21 (5) | 22 (3) | 27 (6) | 26 (2) | 24 (3) | 27 (3) | 23 (2) | - | 51 | 31 | 40 | 31 | 23 | 31 | 5 | 9/2 | |
Shunters Peace is the site's predicted winner but carries genuine structural uncertainty at Valley 260m. The critical issue: stamina data is entirely null (no early pace, no closing speed ratio, no pace consistency metrics), which suggests he's either new to the tracking system or hasn't been raced enough to generate baseline stamina profiles. However, the model gave him the highest h3Score (44.02) and predictedPosition 1, implying strong form or exceptional speed credentials. Speed rating 55 is respectable but not dominant—To Bright (rank 2) has similar implied speed. Performance rating 33 is mid-field and avgPerformance 33 ranks 2nd in the field behind Shunters Peace at 33 (they're tied). Trainer D S Davy at 20% is in the awareness tier. Drawn in T2 which wins 19.35% from 310 runs at these conditions—not dominant but respectable, about 2.7pp above expected baseline. The lack of stamina data is the primary concern: without knowing his early pace or closing profile, it's impossible to assess whether he's a Front Runner who'll dominate the bend or an All-Rounder who'll be swamped by faster runners.
To Bright can be confidently assessed as the structural danger of the race. He sits in the dominant trap (24.54%), has marginally better speed (56 vs 55), and is only one point behind the pick on performance (32 vs 33). The null stamina data affects both the pick and this runner equally. However, To Bright's structural position is significantly stronger—trap advantage alone suggests he should be favored at these conditions. If To Bright has genuine bend ability (unknown from data), he's the probable winner. The model ranked him 2nd, which is appropriate for a dog with slightly inferior performance rating but superior draw position. DANGER: Consider as primary alternative to the pick; likely value play at any odds longer than 3/1.
Most Dapper is unlikely to trouble the top runners. Speed 50 is significantly slower than To Bright (56) and the pick (55)—at 260m, 6 points of speed is roughly a length of daylight at bend 1. His All-Rounder profile and decent consistency are positive traits for race staying power, but he lacks the early pace to be competitive at this extreme sprint. Avoid unless the odds reflect genuine value for a third-place finisher.
Tobergal Gem can be confidently opposed. Dead trap (14.74%), lowest performance (26), low speed (37), and low trap suitability (16) converge to suggest minimal winning chance. At Valley 260m, where early position at the bend is everything, starting from the worst trap with the slowest metrics means he'll be at least 2-3 lengths down at bend 1. Only consider if attempting to engineer a place accumulator at massive odds.
Kippagh Epic is unlikely to feature. Speed 41 is dangerously slow at a 260m sprint, performance 23 is weak, and A N J Morgan's 14% trainer strike rate is the field's weakest. The T6 draw is neither a help nor a severe hindrance, but combined with poor form metrics he should be avoided. The model ranked him 5th, suggesting even their prediction systems see limited upside.
Tagalong Jess is the model's lowest-ranked runner and should be avoided. Performance 23, the lowest model h3Score (36.51), and rank 6 prediction all converge to suggest minimal contention in what is already a weak-to-moderate D4 field. Even the 18.25% neutral T4 can't help a dog with these form metrics.
Valley 260m shows strong trap bias with T5 dominant at 24.54% from 273 runs (well above expected 16.7%), while T1 is dead at 14.74%. Composite rank 1 dogs win at 25.64% vs rank 3 at 14.33%—strong separation. At this extreme sprint distance, Front Runners and early-pace dogs historically outperform Closers by a huge margin (Front Runners ~25%, Closers ~12% from aggregates). The tight track and minimal time to close means that whoever leads into the 260m bend typically wins.
T1:14.74% (346 runs) | T2:19.35% (310 runs) | T3:16.79% (268 runs) | T4:18.25% (263 runs) | T5:24.54% (273 runs) | T6:18.85% (244 runs)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.