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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Captainannieb 4y 24 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 20 (3) | 23 (2) | 13 (6) | 15 (4) | 18 (3) | 12 (6) | 11 (5) | 25 (2) | 15 (5) | 20 (3) | 18 | 24 | - | 25 | 17 | 19 | 6 | 8/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Lady Smithb 4y 15 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 20 (2) | 19 (3) | 15 (4) | 14 (4) | 16 (6) | 21 (6) | 12 (4) | 16 (5) | 17 (6) | - | 31 | 20 | 26 | 27 | 21 | 24 | 5 | 16/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Boherdota Flashb 2y 15 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | - | 15 (5) | 17 (4) | 22 (2) | 14 (5) | 23 (2) | 13 (5) | 30 (1) | 23 (3) | 23 (2) | 19 (4) | 52 | 36 | 18 | 37 | 29 | 36 | 3 | 11/8F | |
| 4 | ▶ Flomur Fionab 3y 3 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 22 (2) | 16 (6) | 26 (2) | 24 (2) | 16 (4) | 22 (2) | 19 (3) | 15 (5) | 18 (4) | 22 (2) | 29 | 26 | 61 | 26 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 9/4 | |
| 5 | ▶ Hawkfield Echob 1y 4 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 54 | 20 (6) | 28 (4) | 25 (1) | 12 (6) | 19 (3) | 21 (6) | 27 (4) | 19 (3) | - | - | 30 | 27 | 35 | 31 | 47 | 39 | 1 | 9/4 | |
| 6 | ▶ Pandy Jensond 5y 15 | C Darch — 22% R381 W85 P215 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 45 | 14 (5) | 20 (4) | 25 (2) | 18 (5) | 15 (5) | 26 (1) | 18 (3) | 16 (4) | 13 (6) | 12 (6) | 28 | 26 | 23 | 27 | 36 | 32 | 2 | 9/2 | |
Hawkfield Echo is the model's predicted winner despite fighting significant structural headwind from trap 5, which is DEAD at 14.85% from 101 runs—more than 2 percentage points below expected baseline. Performance 47 is mid-range and the model's selection suggests the pick has genuine advantages—possibly speed, bend rating, or recent form—that overcome the trap disadvantage. Trainer A N J Morgan at 14% is the field's weakest, which reduces confidence further. At 260m, trap position is nearly as important as form itself; starting from a dead trap in an extreme sprint is a meaningful obstacle. The prediction model's backing here seems to be banking on something beyond the basic metrics—exceptional speed or consistency that the data doesn't fully surface. Performance 47 is 10+ points below dominant-trap dogs if they have competitive form, which creates a class ceiling that's hard to overcome from a dead draw.
Pandy Jenson is a DANGER with caveat: he's ranked 2nd despite 11-point performance deficit to the pick, suggesting the model sees structural advantages (trap + trainer) outweighing form disadvantage. At 260m, if he has Front Runner profile with decent bend rating, he could upset the pick from T6. However, the 36 performance is weak and T6 (17.44%) is not dominant like T1/T4. Consider as a place-betting option rather than win.
Boherdota Flash is unlikely to feature. Performance 29, weak trainer, and neutral trap all suggest third-line contender. Avoid unless massive odds for place angle.
Flomur Fiona is a structural danger with caveat: she's drawn in a dominant trap but has weak form (36 performance) and weak trainer (14%). At 260m, the dominant trap (22.45%) is powerful enough to make her competitive, but she's not a rated threat. Consider as a place-betting angle if odds reflect the form weakness despite trap advantage.
Lady Smith can be confidently opposed. Dead trap, very weak form (21), and weakest trainer create structural mismatch that would require extraordinary bend ability to overcome. Avoid.
Captainannie is the structural underdog with caveat: she has the best trap but the worst form. At 260m, the form gap (30 points behind the pick) is likely too large for trap advantage alone to overcome. Only consider if odds are massive (10+ times) and she's a proven Front Runner with track form.
Valley 260m D6 shows strong trap dominance. T1 and T4 are 8+ percentage points above expected baseline. T5 and T2 are 3+ pp below expected. At extreme sprint distance, this trap differentiation is CRITICAL—a dead trap requires overwhelming speed/bend advantage to overcome. Composite rank 1 wins 29.84% vs rank 3 at 14.71%—massive separation suggesting ratings matter, but trap position creates a hard ceiling.
T1:22.37% DOMINANT (76 runs) | T4:22.45% DOMINANT (98 runs) | T6:17.44% (86 runs) | T3:17.07% (82 runs) | T5:14.85% DEAD (101 runs) | T2:13.95% DEAD (86 runs)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.