Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Cathals Rockd 4y 43 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 19 | 50 | 31 (4) | 31 (2) | 30 (4) | 38 (1) | 36 (3) | 35 (3) | 61 (2) | 33 (3) | 64 (2) | - | 57 | 35 | 31 | 43 | 37 | 42 | 6 | 14/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Southfield Kateb 2y 16 | J A Danahar — 18% R312 W55 P177 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 30 | 21 | 54 (4) | 50 (4) | 41 (5) | 73 (1) | 49 (4) | 47 (5) | 52 (4) | 79 (1) | 76 (1) | 57 (2) | 51 | 53 | 27 | 27 | 61 | 55 | 5 | 20/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Optic Bucksd 4y 15 | D S Davy — 22% R417 W91 P260 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 53 | 76 (2) | 61 (4) | 81 (1) | 80 (1) | 68 (4) | 64 (3) | 68 (2) | 83 (1) | 67 (3) | 57 (2) | 52 | 45 | 55 | 43 | 59 | 54 | 1 | 3/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Quivers Rafad 3y 5 | J A Danahar — 18% R312 W55 P177 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 53 | 33 (4) | 73 (2) | 92 (1) | 46 (6) | 86 (1) | 60 (5) | 62 (4) | 91 (1) | 78 (3) | 71 (3) | 32 | 51 | - | 39 | 67 | 54 | 4 | 7/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Ashway Marshyd 3y 36 | A G Rawlings — 20% R228 W46 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 45 | 63 (4) | 70 (4) | 88 (1) | 87 (1) | 87 (1) | 56 (2) | 57 (4) | 79 (3) | 60 (3) | 16 (3) | 33 | 43 | 9 | 38 | 71 | 56 | 3 | 5/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Pandy Chrisd 3y 17 | C Darch — 22% R381 W85 P215 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 54 | 44 (1) | 39 (3) | 27 (5) | 32 (6) | 59 (4) | 43 (1) | 50 (4) | 70 (2) | 60 (4) | 25 (4) | 45 | 52 | 65 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 2 | 1/1F | |
Optic Bucks is the site's predicted winner with solid fundamental credentials despite being ranked below two higher-rated runners. Performance rating 59 is respectable and the model's h3Score backing (predictedPosition 1) suggests strong form or recent improvement trajectory. Drawn in T3 which wins 18.43% from 217 runs—neutral trap, right at the league average. Trainer D S Davy at 20% win rate is in the awareness tier. The prediction advantage: the model sees convergence here that ratings alone don't show—perhaps recent form upswing, or pace profile advantage over the higher-rated rivals. At Valley 460m, a dog with 59 performance and 20% trainer in a neutral trap facing 71-rated and 67-rated rivals is an underdog, but the model's h3Score suggests Optic Bucks brings a hidden edge—possibly speed rating, bend ability, or consistency at this specific distance that outweighs raw performance numbers.
Ashway Marshy is a class overweight DANGER—his 71 performance is undeniable, but the model's rank 3 placement suggests he doesn't fit these specific conditions (likely a Closer profile unsuited to Valley's tight geometry). If he's a Front Runner with 71 performance, the model got the ranking wrong and he should be PICK. DANGER assessment assumes he's a Closer whose class edge is offset by unsuitable pace profile. Either way, he cannot be completely dismissed at 71 rating.
Pandy Chris is a legitimate DANGER with marginal performance difference to the pick (60 vs 59) but superior trap position (19.07% vs 18.43%). Model rank 2 is appropriate given these factors. He presents genuine value if odds don't reflect the combined advantages of near-pick form and best-trap draw.
Quivers Rafa has genuine ability (67 perf) but fights a structural headwind from T4 (16.02%). Model rank 4 is appropriate—he could win if the favoured dogs stumble, but from a dead draw with below-prediction performance, he's a third-line contender at best. Avoid unless chasing a place angle.
Southfield Kate is unlikely to feature. Rank 5 from the model, weak trainer support, and slight dead trap all converge to suggest she's a fourth-line contender at best. Avoid.
Cathals Rock can be confidently opposed. Performance 37 in an elite A3 race is a fundamental mismatch. Even from a slightly-favourable trap, he lacks the ability to contend with any of the five runners above him. Avoid completely.
Valley 460m A3 shows relatively flat trap bias with no trap exceeding 19.1%—traps are nearly neutral. Composite separation is solid: R1 22.01% vs R3 17.82% (4.19pp gap). Ratings matter here. Performance gaps between runners carry significant predictive weight. Favorite wins 32.5% at this grade from historical data.
T1:18.9% (127 runs) | T2:16.96% (171 runs) | T3:18.43% (217 runs) | T4:16.02% (181 runs) | T5:18.75% (160 runs) | T6:19.07% (194 runs)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Cathals Rock | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Southfield Kate | 0 | 53 | All-Rounder |
3Optic Bucks | 100 | 34 | Fader |
4Quivers Rafa | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Ashway Marshy | 0 | 74 | Closer |
6Pandy Chris | 100 | 47 | Front Runner |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.