Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Inner Cityb 3y 5 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | - | 32 (3) | 29 (3) | 30 (3) | 31 (3) | 29 (3) | 25 (4) | 35 (1) | 32 (3) | 37 (1) | 31 (2) | 47 | 52 | 42 | 53 | 34 | 41 | 4 | 11/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Hawkfield Jackieb 2y 16 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 29 (4) | 33 (4) | 25 (6) | 38 (1) | 33 (2) | 80 (3) | 29 (4) | 33 (1) | 19 (6) | 23 (3) | 40 | 34 | - | 36 | 33 | 35 | 5 | 4/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Toems Hourb 4y 43 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 50 | 30 (5) | 55 (3) | 25 (4) | 23 (4) | 23 (4) | 27 (5) | 26 (4) | 22 (4) | 27 (3) | 22 (5) | 27 | 30 | 19 | 35 | 34 | 32 | 1 | 6/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Burkos Busterd 2y 16 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 53 (5) | 34 (3) | 34 (2) | 33 (3) | 33 (2) | 31 (3) | 34 (3) | 23 (4) | 100 (1) | 38 (1) | 29 | 40 | 46 | 44 | 32 | 33 | 2 | 8/11F | |
| 5 | ▶ Roanna Jackd 4y 46 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 0 | 50 | 72 (1) | 51 (4) | 42 (5) | 32 (1) | 71 (1) | 69 (1) | 17 (6) | 31 (1) | 16 (4) | 50 (4) | 20 | 31 | 40 | 46 | 56 | 44 | 3 | 12/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Hawkfield Tiptoed 2yN/R 15 | A L Jeffery — 20% R388 W77 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 70 | - | 22 (6) | 37 (2) | 31 (4) | 43 (1) | 34 (2) | 35 (2) | 27 (5) | 35 (6) | - | - | 59 | 50 | 37 | 50 | 37 | 45 | - | - | |
Hawkfield Tiptoe is the model's predicted winner from T6 which is DOMINANT at Valley 260m with 23.87% win rate from 222 runs. This is a strong structural advantage: at extreme sprint distance, trap position is nearly as important as form itself. Performance 37 is weak to mid-range, but the combination of dominant trap + A L Jeffery (26%, strong trainer) creates convergence despite form weakness. Trainer Jeffery at 26% places her in the strong tier—he's demonstrated ability to place winners. Rank 1 prediction makes sense given the dominant trap overrides the moderate form. At 260m, if Tiptoe has decent early pace and bend rating (unknown from data but likely given the prediction), the T6 advantage (nearly 7pp above expected) is sufficient to win over better-formed runners from weaker traps.
Roanna Jack is a DANGER with caveat: superior form (56 vs 37, 19pp advantage) but worse trap (17.93% vs 23.87%, 5.94pp disadvantage) and weakest trainer (14% vs 26%). At 260m, the trap disadvantage is meaningful. Jack would need exceptional bend ability and early pace to overcome the structural position of the pick. Consider as a place-betting option if odds suggest value for the form advantage.
Burkos Buster is unlikely to figure. Dead trap (15.65%), weak form (32), and rank 3 prediction all suggest third-line contention. Avoid.
Toems Hour is unlikely to figure despite rank 2. Form 34 is weak, trap neutral, trainer weakest. Avoid.
Hawkfield Jackie has second-best trap but worst form and weakest trainer. Unlikely to figure. The pick's T6 is stronger, and even worse-trapped runners like Jack (T5, perf 56) are more dangerous due to superior form. Avoid.
Inner City is unlikely to feature. Rank 6, weak form, neutral-to-slight-minus trap. Avoid.
Valley 260m D3 shows T6 as the strongest trap at 23.87%—nearly 7pp above expected baseline—with T2 also dominant at 22.06%. T4 is dead at 15.65%. At extreme sprint distance, the pick (T6, dominant trap) has a structural edge even from weaker form. Composite R1 wins 25.41% vs R3 at 14.75%—strong separation, but trap bias (T6 23.87%) is almost as powerful as performance ratings. Front Runners with high bend ratings in dominant traps are nearly unstoppable at 260m.
T6:23.87% DOMINANT (222 runs) | T2:22.06% DOMINANT (281 runs) | T3:19.70% (269 runs) | T5:17.93% (251 runs) | T1:16.13% (279 runs) | T4:15.65% DEAD (262 runs)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.