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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 2 | ▶ Codingb 2y 29 | C Darch — 22% R381 W85 P215 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 59 | 38 (1) | 38 (1) | 20 (5) | 26 (5) | 34 (1) | 23 (4) | 33 (2) | 25 (5) | 34 (1) | 15 (4) | 53 | 27 | - | - | 39 | 41 | 1 | 5/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Slid Johnd 4y 33 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 33 | 56 (2) | 44 (3) | 55 (3) | 43 (4) | 20 (3) | 19 (5) | 24 (3) | 47 (4) | 49 (3) | 54 (2) | 52 | 30 | 46 | 34 | 33 | 37 | 4 | 6/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Miltown Hopeb 4y 15 | A N J Morgan — 14% R1165 W168 P574 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 59 | 47 (4) | 56 (3) | 49 (4) | 41 (5) | 50 (2) | 44 (5) | 33 (6) | 16 (3) | 9 (6) | 40 (4) | 24 | 34 | - | 31 | 39 | 34 | 3 | 10/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Crokers Ciand 2y 29 | C Darch — 22% R381 W85 P215 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 50 | 71 (1) | 71 (1) | 39 (6) | 69 (1) | 53 (3) | 46 (4) | 43 (4) | 52 (4) | 58 (4) | 58 (2) | 5 | 39 | 15 | 33 | 57 | 41 | 2 | 4/7F | |
| 6 | ▶ Livingonaprayerb 3y 26 | C Darch — 22% R381 W85 P215 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 37 | 30 (1) | 24 (2) | 18 (5) | 22 (3) | 23 (3) | 16 (6) | 31 (6) | 23 (1) | 20 (2) | - | 35 | 18 | - | - | 34 | 32 | 5 | 8/1 | |
Coding is the model's predicted winner but faces critical structural mismatch: drawn in T2 which is DEAD at 13.73% from 102 runs (3.97pp below expected baseline), and performance 39 is 18 points behind rank 2 runner Crokers Cian (57). This is a puzzle—why predict Coding when Cian has better form and better trap? The model must see hidden advantages: possibly superior speed rating, bend ability, or recent form not captured in performance 39. Trainer C Darch at 22% is moderate-tier. At Valley 460m, the dead trap (13.73%) combined with weak form (39) creates a structural barrier that's difficult to overcome. The prediction's backing is the only reason to include Coding in contention—the basic metrics suggest Cian is the superior runner.
Crokers Cian is DANGER with high confidence. Superior form (57 vs 39), dominant trap (20.41%), and good trainer make him the structural favourite. Model rank 2 behind dead-trap/weak-form Coding suggests the model sees merit in Coding's pace/bend profile, but Cian's convergence of form + trap + trainer is compelling. Likely value play at any odds that don't price him as favourite.
Miltown Hope is unlikely to figure. Same form as Coding but worse structural position (neutral trap vs dead trap) makes Coding relatively attractive. Avoid.
Slid John has trap advantage but weak form and weakest trainer. The dominant T3 position is a plus but insufficient to overcome form gaps. Unlikely to figure.
Livingonaprayer is unlikely to figure. Weak form, moderate trap, and rank 5 prediction suggest marginal contention. Avoid.
Valley 460m A6 shows clear trap hierarchy: T1/T5/T3 dominant at ~20.4%, T2 dead at 13.73%. The predicted pick (Coding) is drawn in the dead trap despite 18-point form deficit to rank 2 runner (Crokers Cian in dominant T5). This is highly unusual. Composite R1 wins 25.19% from 168 runs—separation is real and suggests ratings matter, yet the pick is in the worst draw with worst form. Flag for potential mismatch between prediction and structural reality.
T1:20.43% (93 runs) | T5:20.41% (98 runs) | T3:20.21% (94 runs) | T6:18.33% (60 runs) | T4:17.92% (106 runs) | T2:13.73% DEAD (102 runs)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
2Coding | 62 | 17 | Fader |
3Slid John | 39 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Miltown Hope | 63 | 28 | Fader |
5Crokers Cian | 50 | 62 | Closer |
6Livingonaprayer | 42 | 59 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.