| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Jinxedd 6y 15 | W E Link — 17% R6 W1 P4 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 30 (3) | 28 (3) | 31 (3) | 35 (1) | 27 (3) | 27 (3) | 31 (3) | 27 (3) | 36 (1) | 38 (4) | 39 | 33 | 33 | 41 | 62 | 53 | 1 | 9/4CF | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Slaine Lunab 3y 18 | S Watson — 31% R408 W126 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 38 (2) | 42 (1) | 42 (1) | 29 (4) | 32 (3) | 30 (5) | 42 (1) | 35 (3) | 32 (3) | 23 (4) | 27 | 38 | 47 | 37 | 62 | 52 | 3 | 11/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Hawthorn Speedb 4y 15 | R J Overton — 17% R325 W54 P195 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 31 (4) | 34 (2) | 31 (2) | 24 (4) | 36 (1) | 30 (3) | 33 (2) | 27 (2) | 26 (5) | 26 (2) | 43 | 32 | 30 | 36 | 56 | 49 | 5 | 9/4CF | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Ballymac Gailb 4y 34 | S Watson — 31% R408 W126 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 14 (5) | 27 (2) | 24 (3) | 29 (2) | 23 (5) | 32 (1) | 25 (3) | 14 (4) | 25 (2) | 22 (4) | 37 | 32 | 25 | 34 | 59 | 50 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Ardmoulin Flyerb 5y 26 | M Haythorne — 20% R76 W15 P38 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 27 (4) | 21 (5) | 36 (1) | 24 (1) | 29 (4) | 29 (2) | 28 (2) | 33 (2) | 29 (2) | 25 (4) | 41 | 37 | 53 | 37 | 63 | 54 | 2 | 9/4CF | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Liscarnan Flyerd 3yN/R 25 | M G Adamson — 40% R5 W2 P2 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 68 | - | 28 (5) | 30 (5) | 59 (1) | 42 (1) | 32 (3) | 35 (2) | 41 (1) | 27 (4) | 33 (3) | 42 (1) | 53 | 67 | - | 62 | 66 | 64 | - | - | - | |
Speed Rank 1 in the field at 68 — the single best predictor at 25.4% win rate nationally — combined with the field-best average performance of 66 and an outstanding course & distance record of 3 wins and 7 places from 10 runs at Doncaster 275m (30% win, 70% place rate). Grade context: recent form is from D2 grade where he was competitive (1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st in last 4 D2 runs), now dropping back to D3 where the opposition is weaker. Performance history of 78→59→66→76→50→62 shows elite peaks at 78 and 76 proving genuine top-level sprint ability. The 50 and 59 are class-level dips rather than ability concerns — his peaks remain high. T6 at 21.89% (233r) is decent though not the structural best in D3. The combination of Speed R1 + best avgP + strong C&D + grade drop from D2 creates multiple stacking signals. Trainer Adamson at 22% is moderate. At sprint distance, raw speed is the decisive factor and this dog has the most of it.
DANGER: T1 (27.22%) + early pace 100 = the sprint winning formula. Speed 50 (median) is the one factor holding him back from being the pick. If speed decides, the pick wins; if pace decides, Jinxed wins.
Outstanding C&D record (40% win, 80% place from 10r) but T5 at 17.95% in D3 conditions is a structural headwind. More likely to place than win from this draw.
Watson 30% trainer + T2 (23.51%, second-best) + D2 class drop = genuine contender. Peaks of 76 and 75 prove top-level ability. Narrowly behind the pick on speed and C&D consistency.
Watson 30% trainer helps but speed 44 (below median) and T4 draw limit her. Less compelling than stablemate Slaine Luna (better speed, better draw). Capable of placing.
Honest but limited — avgP 56 (field worst), 10% C&D win rate, T3 below average. Will be involved but unlikely to beat the class droppers from D2.
T1 dominates at 27.22% in D3 sprints — the best draw by a clear margin. D-grade is the composite's most reliable tier (31.1% nationally). Every runner has 9-10 C&D runs — form is honest and well-established.
T1:27.2% (169r) T2:23.5% (251r) T3:18.3% (274r) T4:21.2% (250r) T5:18.0% (195r) T6:21.9% (233r)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 275m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 275m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (275m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 275m | 450m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinxed | 0.637 | 0.634 |
| 2 | Slaine Luna | 0.630 | — |
| 3 | Hawthorn Speed | 0.636 | — |
| 4 | Ballymac Gail | 0.648 | — |
| 5 | Ardmoulin Flyer | 0.638 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.