| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hollyhill Autumnb 3y 17 | M Mavrias — 17% R317 W53 P159 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 25 (4) | 26 (3) | 29 (3) | 26 (3) | 17 (6) | 28 (3) | 32 (2) | 25 (3) | 21 (5) | 31 (1) | 39 | 34 | 5 | 34 | 26 | 31 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Broadway Worldd 6y 25 | M Mavrias — 17% R317 W53 P159 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 28 (6) | 20 (3) | 32 (6) | 37 (3) | 28 (1) | 31 (3) | 26 (4) | 33 (4) | 32 (3) | - | 65 | 44 | - | 41 | 30 | 41 | 3 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ballyhimikin Skyb 3y 45 | D P Brabon — 22% R366 W79 P218 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 36 (5) | 47 (4) | 46 (5) | 23 (5) | 35 (1) | 32 (1) | 25 (4) | 28 (3) | 44 (3) | 44 (2) | 69 | 28 | 23 | 14 | 29 | 37 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Effortless Roseb 3y 24 | G L Davidson — 14% R227 W31 P101 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | - | 26 (5) | 36 (1) | 27 (4) | 25 (4) | 44 (6) | 36 (6) | 51 (4) | 62 (3) | 46 (6) | 54 (4) | 23 | 36 | - | 31 | 50 | 40 | 1 | 14/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Lemon Lunab 1y 15 | B D O'sullivan — 19% R538 W102 P302 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 68 (2) | 57 (3) | 68 (3) | 71 (2) | 64 (3) | 50 (4) | 57 (4) | 28 (5) | 24 (5) | 28 (2) | 13 | 20 | 14 | 20 | 25 | 21 | 6 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Greatdown Ladd 4y 17 | G L Davidson — 14% R227 W31 P101 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 63 | - | 36 (1) | 33 (2) | 29 (2) | 29 (4) | 27 (4) | 27 (4) | 25 (4) | 36 (4) | - | - | 34 | 28 | - | 24 | 33 | 32 | 2 | 1/1F | - | |
Effortless Rose has a commanding class override in this LOW SEPARATION race — avgP 50 vs field average 32, an 18-point gap that makes her the standout pick. Her form shows she's been competing at A3 491m level (6th, 6th, 4th) and her recent trials suggest the trainer is sharpening her speed for 277m: 2nd at T2 277m (P20), won T1 209m (P23). The Fader profile (EP 100, CS 0) is actually ideal for a 277m sprint — maximum explosion from the boxes and the distance is too short for any meaningful fade. Speed 42 is the field's lowest, which looks like a red flag but speed ratings are distance-specific, and she's been running 491m; her 277m speed will only become apparent with competitive runs. From T4 at 17.9% — the best structural position in this flat-bias race — the positioning aligns. Trainer Davidson at 6% is the one weakness, but the class gap overrides trainer concerns.
DANGER: Field-best speed (63) and D2 form dropping to D3. If the class leader encounters any issues in her first competitive 277m run, Greatdown Lad has the pace from T6 to capitalise. The highest-quality alternative in the field.
Honest framer who'll likely run 3rd-4th again. Declining form (P18 last time) and 24-point class gap to the pick make winning impossible. Will compete for minor places.
Interesting structural-individual split — T2 is borderline dead but his personal trap suit 65 suggests he can defy the aggregate. Still, avgP 30 is 20 points below the class leader. Place candidate at best.
Best trap suit (69) + best trainer (Brabon 30%) but worst distance suit (14) and avgP 29. The trap-specific advantage can help him place but can't overcome the class gap or overall venue unsuitability.
Field-worst suitability (mean 17), field-worst avgP (25), steepest declining form in the race. Every metric — structural, individual, and form — works against her. One to oppose.
1,757 runs. LOW SEPARATION — R1 19.2% vs R3 16.0% = 3.2pp gap. Very flat trap bias with no dominant traps — all between 14.2% and 17.9%. In a race where neither ratings nor traps offer strong signals, the class override from Effortless Rose (avgP 50 vs field avg 32) is the primary analytical factor. N F Carter 30.0% from 20 runs and L E Morrison 28.6% from 14 runs are the notable trainers.
T1:17.8% T2:14.2% T3:17.2% T4:17.9% T5:15.9% T6:17.2%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 277m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 277m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (277m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 275m | 277m | 450m | 491m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hollyhill Autumn | — | 0.620 | — | — |
| 2 | Broadway World | — | 0.615 | — | — |
| 3 | Ballyhimikin Sky | 0.636 | 0.619 | 0.637 | 0.623 |
| 4 | Effortless Rose | — | 0.615 | — | 0.618 |
| 5 | Lemon Luna | — | 0.613 | — | 0.610 |
| 6 | Greatdown Lad | — | 0.611 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.