Friday Night Winning Deal @ Sunderland Dogs Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ How Ye Debsb 3y 27 | M K Bulmer — 20% R238 W47 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | 42 | 72 (1) | 55 (2) | 63 (2) | 65 (2) | 56 (5) | 64 (3) | 59 (3) | 62 (3) | 64 (2) | 71 (2) | 33 | 39 | 24 | 38 | 64 | 54 | 1 | 9/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Rebel Da Gamab 3y 6 | P Miller — 17% R501 W87 P263 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 57 | 26 (6) | 70 (1) | 54 (4) | 49 (4) | 45 (5) | 44 (5) | 61 (3) | 46 (5) | 45 (4) | 41 (6) | 52 | 38 | 38 | 35 | 49 | 46 | 4 | 7/4F | |
| 3 | ▶ Sunny Tabd 2y 28 | J Sutherst — 14% R91 W13 P47 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 56 | 46 (5) | 59 (2) | 37 (6) | 72 (1) | 70 (1) | 32 (5) | 57 (2) | 64 (1) | 31 (6) | 72 (1) | 72 | 60 | - | 58 | 56 | 59 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Dashing Elvisd 2y 6 | G Strike — 18% R410 W74 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 30 | 36 (6) | 46 (6) | 77 (1) | 58 (4) | 61 (3) | 52 (5) | 77 (1) | - | - | - | 7 | 15 | - | 15 | - | 4 | 6 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Marwood Magicb 2y 8 | G Strike — 18% R410 W74 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 47 | 79 (1) | 47 (6) | 77 (2) | 60 (1) | 54 (3) | 50 (5) | 56 (5) | 55 (5) | 62 (4) | - | 34 | 25 | - | 25 | - | 10 | 5 | 13/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Mascot Samsond 2y 10 | D Blackbird — 17% R1084 W182 P585 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 59 | 72 (1) | 60 (2) | 51 (4) | 53 (3) | 47 (4) | 43 (6) | 49 (4) | 57 (3) | 74 (1) | 59 (4) | 37 | 43 | 10 | 43 | 57 | 51 | 2 | 7/1 | |
Outstanding Closer (EP43, CS96, PC88) with the field's best average performance at 64 — a full 7 points clear of the next graded runner. That performance gap is significant: at A4 where composite R1 wins 20.16%, being the clear best dog matters. Form of 2-5-3-3-3 with performances of 65→56→64→59→62 is remarkably consistent — the floor is 56 and the ceiling is 65, meaning she produces near-identical effort every single run. Speed rating 61 is the field's best. Closing speed of 96 is extraordinary — among the highest at the meeting — and means she'll power through bends 3 and 4 with devastating acceleration. Suitability is solid: track 39, distance 38, trap 33, class 24. T1 wins 19.54% from 261 runs — the second-best trap. Trainer Bulmer at 30% is a strong-tier handler, the only 30%+ trainer in the race. The rail draw in T1 protects her through the difficult first bend even with EP43. The one concern is that her low EP means she'll be near the back through the first bend, but at Sunderland with its 24% all-the-way rate and two Front Runners setting a strong pace, the race will come to her through the closing stages. The class override doesn't apply in the traditional sense — she's not a Fader being overridden — she's a Closer whose entire profile aligns with Sunderland's track character.
DANGER: Best trap (T2, 23.36%) and Front Runner profile give her the pace to lead early. If she gets a clean first bend and builds a solid advantage, the moderate CS50 means she doesn't collapse as dramatically as a pure Fader. The 15-point perf gap to How Ye Debs is the problem — she needs trouble to win.
Outstanding suitability (track 60, trap 72) and capable of big performances (72, 70) but the 32 dip and low speed (45) keep her behind How Ye Debs. Place chance when she fires, but the inconsistency prevents a stronger assessment.
Novice with two sub-20 performances stepping into A4. The closing speed profile is interesting but there's no form to support a competitive assessment at this level.
Novice with two career runs well below A4 standard. No data point supports a competitive chance in this field.
Good Front Runner numbers (EP60, Bend59, P57) undermined by T6's wide path through the problem bend. Against How Ye Debs' CS96 closing speed, he'd need to build an insurmountable lead — and from T6 that's unlikely.
1,741 runs. T2 is the dominant trap at 23.36% from 304 runs — well ahead of the field. T1 also strong at 19.54%. T4 (15.65%) and T6 (16.31%) are the weakest positions. Composite R1 wins 20.16% — the favourite has an edge. Speed R1 is stronger at 22.83% — speed matters at A4. Ratings are moderately predictive.
T1:19.54% T2:23.36% T3:17.15% T4:15.65% T5:17.88% T6:16.31%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1How Ye Debs | 43 | 96 | Closer |
2Rebel Da Gama | 60 | 50 | Front Runner |
3Sunny Tab | 51 | 48 | All-Rounder |
4Dashing Elvis | 34 | 81 | Closer |
5Marwood Magic | 49 | 44 | All-Rounder |
6Mascot Samson | 60 | 50 | Front Runner |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.