Sunday Roast Lunch at Sunderland Dogs Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Timmys Duod 2y 24 | S Linley — 17% R373 W65 P191 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 50 | 40 (6) | 56 (5) | 86 (1) | 84 (1) | 62 (2) | 59 (3) | 81 (1) | 78 (1) | 40 (5) | 62 (3) | 52 | 67 | - | 53 | 72 | 67 | 2 | 9/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Dairyhill Suzib 4y 34 | D Blackbird — 17% R1084 W182 P585 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 36 | 49 (5) | 49 (5) | 49 (6) | 76 (3) | 76 (2) | 71 (3) | 79 (3) | 54 (5) | 78 (3) | 92 (1) | 63 | 41 | 40 | 31 | 64 | 57 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Roaming Arianab 2y 6 | C Mcnicholas — 17% R516 W88 P265 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 41 | 44 (5) | 66 (2) | 55 (4) | 57 (4) | 51 (4) | 53 (4) | 59 (3) | 52 (3) | 63 (3) | 74 (1) | 22 | 32 | 18 | 26 | 58 | 47 | 5 | 6/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ In Between Daysd 2y 29 | E Y Bell — 22% R520 W113 P293 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 53 | 63 (3) | 42 (5) | 80 (1) | 43 (5) | 80 (1) | 62 (2) | 53 (5) | 70 (3) | 77 (1) | 63 (2) | 56 | 51 | 25 | 41 | 62 | 58 | 1 | 6/4F | |
| 5 | ▶ Brenval Elleb 2y 28 | C Jackson — 25% R92 W23 P58 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 57 | 72 (4) | 55 (2) | 74 (4) | 61 (1) | 59 (6) | 45 (2) | 54 (2) | 59 (6) | - | - | 50 | 27 | - | 22 | 58 | 49 | 4 | 4/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Greenhill Patchd 5yN/R 16 | E Y Bell — 22% R520 W113 P293 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 59 | 33 (5) | 45 (5) | 51 (4) | 53 (4) | 55 (4) | 45 (4) | 36 (5) | 36 (6) | 71 (1) | 52 (3) | 36 | 30 | 18 | 32 | 59 | 50 | - | - | |
Outstanding Closer (EP49, CS56, PC95) with the field's best average performance at 72 — a massive 8-point gap to the next runner (Dairyhill Suzi at 64). That gap is among the largest on the entire card. Form of 1-1-3-1-1 with performances of 75→69→13→17→24 needs careful reading: the 75 and 69 are exceptional at A4, but the 13, 17, and 24 came at higher grades or different conditions (she was clearly outclassed there). The recent A4 form of 75→69 is what matters, and it's dominant. Speed rating 58 is the field's best. Suitability is outstanding: track 67 — the highest we've seen all meeting — distance 53, trap 52, class 0 (new to this grade level but clearly dropping in). Pace consistency of 95 is the best in the field — she runs her race identically every time. Trainer Linley at 20% is moderate. T1 wins 19.54% from 261 runs — the second-best trap. The Closer profile suits Sunderland perfectly, and with two Faders setting an honest pace ahead of her, the race shape is ideal. The rail draw in T1 protects her through the difficult first bend even with EP49. The 8-point perf gap to the field is a class override level advantage — her form floor at A4 (69) would be the ceiling for most of this field.
DANGER: Best trap (T2, 23.36%), extreme closing speed (CS100), and second-best perf (64). The 76 performance shows a dog capable of threatening Timmys Duo. But EP0 and PC0 make her a complete wildcard — she could run 76 or 17, and there's no way to know which version appears.
Ultra-consistent 3rd-place finisher (3-3-2-3-3) with a reliable Closer profile. Will be in the frame but the form ceiling of 63 is well below Timmys Duo's 72 average. Solid place prospect, not a winner.
Strong when leading (77, 70) but the Fader profile from the worst trap means she'll set the pace for others. Against Timmys Duo's closing speed, she's running the race for someone else's benefit.
Best trainer in the field (Jackson 44%) and capable of 74-level performances, but the 24 dip and 14-point perf gap to Timmys Duo make her a place prospect at best. The boom-or-bust pattern undermines the trainer signal.
Will lead early but the T6 draw + extreme Fader profile (CS29) + Sunderland's problem bend = caught in the closing stages. Two wins (71, 72) show ability but the 41 and 50 show what happens when the fade kicks in against better closers.
1,741 runs. T2 dominant at 23.36%. T1 solid at 19.54%. T4 weakest at 15.65%. Composite R1 wins 20.16% — ratings predictive. Speed R1 wins 22.83% — speed is the strongest single predictor at A4.
T1:19.54% T2:23.36% T3:17.15% T4:15.65% T5:17.88% T6:16.31%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Timmys Duo | 49 | 56 | Closer |
2Dairyhill Suzi | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Roaming Ariana | 47 | 66 | Closer |
4In Between Days | 57 | 43 | Fader |
5Brenval Elle | 51 | 44 | All-Rounder |
6Greenhill Patch | 60 | 29 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.