| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Lava Kingd 2y 18 | G S Byford — 23% R237 W54 P142 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 35 | 67 (1) | 62 (1) | 49 (3) | 53 (1) | 46 (2) | 36 (5) | 42 (2) | 47 (1) | 28 (5) | 43 (2) | 24 | 45 | 15 | 37 | 35 | 35 | 4 | 7/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Fauna Raeb 3y 36 | B S Green — 20% R422 W83 P248 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | 58 | 29 (4) | 30 (5) | 43 (3) | 39 (3) | 43 (3) | 44 (2) | 44 (3) | 30 (5) | 36 (4) | 43 (2) | 44 | 37 | 10 | 26 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 15/8F | |
| 3 | ▶ Melbury Tyrd 2y 15 | J J Heath — 21% R377 W81 P238 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 42 | 47 (3) | 41 (6) | 43 (5) | 61 (1) | 52 (3) | 36 (5) | 48 (3) | 45 (3) | 57 (1) | 41 (4) | 35 | 51 | 18 | 28 | 45 | 43 | 1 | 4/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Punkrock Pitstopb 3y 8 | S Maplesden — 17% R276 W47 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 57 | 37 (2) | 39 (2) | 40 (3) | 35 (3) | 40 (4) | 26 (5) | 32 (4) | 40 (2) | 31 (5) | 48 (1) | 28 | 33 | 28 | 31 | 36 | 34 | 5 | 5/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Tuono Poppyb 2y 111 | D D Knight — 18% R236 W42 P135 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 52 | 61 (1) | 56 (1) | 40 (4) | 31 (6) | 52 (1) | 44 (1) | 34 (2) | 39 (2) | 31 (4) | 31 (5) | 28 | 44 | - | 44 | 36 | 37 | 3 | 5/2 | |
Best AP in the race at 45, which at A9 level where the composite ranks are almost indistinguishable (21.2% to 19.88%), means even small AP advantages matter. CS94 is elite closing speed on a galloping track — the second-strongest closer in the field behind only Lava King's CS91, but crucially attached to a dog with 10 more AP points. TSuit 51 is the best in the race, confirming strong Hove form. Form reads 45→11→12→19→22 — the recent runs are poor and the 11 and 12 are genuinely alarming. But the 45 opening and the two wins in his broader history (P1, P1) show this dog CAN run competitively. The slight upward trend from 11→12→19→22 isn't convincing but it's at least moving in the right direction. T3 at 19.81% from 106 runs is moderate. Trainer J J Heath at 14% is lower-tier. This is a Speculative pick — the AP advantage and closing speed suit the track, but the recent form means confidence is low. In a race this weak, the bet is on the dog with the highest ceiling finding something close to it.
DANGER: Best trap (23.65%), best speed (60), best bend (58), best trainer (24%). The Fader profile is the concern but in a weak A9 field, the closers may not be fast enough to catch her. Very live threat.
CS91 closer on a galloping track is the right profile, but performances of 13, 15, and 19 in the last three runs make winning almost impossible regardless of closing ability. Too far below competitive level.
Fader with CS19 on a galloping track — the pace profile is wrong for the venue. AP36 and inconsistent form (27-48 range) don't provide the raw ability to overcome the structural mismatch.
Decent speed and suitability but declining form (two consecutive 31s) from the worst trap. The All-Rounder profile keeps her honest but the trajectory is downward.
Very compressed composite breakdown — R1 to R4 are all between 19.88% and 21.2%. This means at A9, the top-rated dog has almost no advantage over the fourth-rated dog. Upset central. T2 at 23.65% and T6 at 24.21% are the best traps from larger samples.
T1:18.18%(77) T2:23.65%(148) T3:19.81%(106) T4:17.17%(99) T5:16.09%(87) T6:24.21%(95)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Lava King | 39 | 91 | Closer |
2Fauna Rae | 58 | 33 | Fader |
3Melbury Tyr | 38 | 94 | Closer |
4Punkrock Pitstop | 58 | 19 | Fader |
5Tuono Poppy | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.