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Suffolk Downs Sprint
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Savana Pepsid 2y 27 | J M Ray — 16% R249 W39 P146 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 100 | 70 | 63 (2) | 70 (2) | 74 (1) | 45 (3) | 53 (5) | 80 (2) | 70 (3) | 67 (5) | 100 (1) | 67 (4) | 76 | 43 | 31 | 50 | 75 | 69 | 1 | 9/4F | |
| 2 | ▶ Lissatouk Blaked 5y 35 | D B Whitton — 26% R312 W81 P196 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 40 (1) | 29 (3) | 24 (5) | 31 (2) | 34 (2) | 40 (1) | 40 (1) | 33 (2) | 36 (2) | 39 (1) | 62 | 31 | 41 | 41 | 36 | 42 | 4 | 5/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Rapido Ariab 3y 14 | J J Gornall — 18% R72 W13 P46 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 13 | 60 | 38 (5) | 59 (1) | 30 (6) | 61 (1) | 39 (5) | 60 (1) | 44 (5) | 66 (2) | 58 (2) | 31 (3) | 50 | 30 | 34 | - | 51 | 47 | 3 | 11/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Savana Spriteb 3y 35 | J M Ray — 16% R249 W39 P146 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 100 | 30 | 87 (1) | 55 (5) | 32 (2) | 34 (3) | 29 (4) | 33 (3) | 15 (5) | 21 (2) | 72 (4) | 69 (4) | 38 | 53 | 46 | 44 | 81 | 64 | 2 | 7/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Headford Oisind 5y 23 | M J Rice — 21% R125 W26 P76 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 28 | - | 22 (3) | 25 (4) | 26 (4) | 33 (1) | 23 (4) | 28 (3) | 29 (2) | 33 (1) | 23 (5) | 33 (1) | 57 | - | 28 | - | 27 | 41 | 6 | 33/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Ritzy Queenb 4y 34 | D B Whitton — 26% R312 W81 P196 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 39 (2) | 30 (2) | 30 (3) | 40 (1) | 39 (1) | 40 (2) | 29 (1) | 30 (4) | 39 (4) | - | 56 | - | 39 | - | 34 | 44 | 5 | 11/4 | |
Savana Pepsi emerges as the selection despite moderate composite (69) and the obvious T1 inside advantage on this extreme tight circuit. The all-rounder profile with solid avgPerformance 75 and neutral bending (70) suggests capability to shape early pace and hold integrity through the critical first bend. Trap suitability 76 is the standout metric—T1 alignment with Suffolk's established inside-domination pattern provides baseline expectancy. The recent form sequence (P54→P80→P70→P68→P100→P68, excluding trials) demonstrates consistency in actual racing conditions at this level. Trainer J M Ray's 18% win rate provides modest confidence. The pick is grounded in trap positioning advantage and reasonable consistency, not standout class. Speed rating 100 suggests mid-field pace, limiting dominant front-running threat. Confidence is tentative given low separation in the 220m OR cohort and the reliance on spatial rather than quality-based advantage. This selection prioritizes trap positioning and form steadiness over exceptional quality metrics, suitable for a race where structural factors dominate. Suffolk's extreme tightness makes the T1 advantage decisive for a runner with proven consistency in actual racing.
Danger threat centres on superior avgPerformance (81 vs pick 75) and form consistency, yet compromised by T4 trap positioning. The 220m OR cohort shows T4 at catastrophic 10.34% win rate—the deadest trap. Closer profile (earliestPace 0, classSpeed 100) requires controlled pace for late run, unlikely when T1-T3 dominance establishes early control. Form peaks (100,95) are genuine, but recent trajectory suggests form stability rather than upswing. Trainer J M Ray provides baseline competence. Danger rating MEDIUM reflects this paradox: superior form metrics negated by structural trap liability. Late runs will not materialise if early pace establishes dominance from inside traps.
The paradox here is clear: T3 enjoys 36% strike rate in 220m OR, yet Rapido Aria's composite (47) and performance (51) are sub-standard. Fader designation (earliestPace 100, classSpeed 0, speed 13) indicates minimal capacity for the front-running role. Form volatility (66,58,31,77,39 range) suggests inconsistency; the 31-run represents capability collapse. T3 structural advantage is insufficient when individual dog quality is missing. Trainer J J Gornall provides baseline competence. This runner appears unlikely to threaten, despite occupying the statistically strongest trap. Quality gap exceeds trap advantage significantly.
Lissatouk Blake's profile is compromised by grade/distance transition uncertainty. All recent form (34,40,39,33,36) is from A3/D3 238m—grade and distance downgrades to 220m OR. Composite 42 is below field average, and the missing pace metrics suggest data gaps or incomplete profile. T2 trap suitability (62) provides middle advantage without T1 dominance. Trainer D B Whitton (30% wr) is strong but cannot offset composite deficit. This runner lacks proven OR-grade form or recent competitive evidence at this level. Unknown territory at grade/distance combined with modest composite places Blake outside realistic contention despite inside-trap advantage.
Headford Oisin is doubly disadvantaged: composite 41 and avgPerformance 27 mark below-OR quality, while T5 positioning (suitability just 57) creates structural headwind on extreme-tight circuit. Form data (22,33,24,26,31) is all D4-grade, confirming this runner competes well below target grade. Speed 28 suggests limited early-pace capacity. Trainer M J Rice (16% wr) is below average. Both quality and positioning work against this runner on Suffolk's tight layout. T5 is documented weak trap (220m OR performance data shows T5 as under-represented). Unlikely to threaten field.
Ritzy Queen represents the clearest outsider: composite 44 is lowest in field, avgPerformance 34 is well below standard, and T6 positioning (suitability 56) creates structural disadvantage on extreme-tight circuit. Form sequence (39,29,29,39,39) from D3 grade confirms below-OR quality with repetitive mid-range consistency. Absent pace/bend metrics suggest data gaps. T6 trap historically weak in 220m OR (under-represented in condition data). Trainer D B Whitton (30% wr) provides competence offset but insufficient to overcome dual deficits (quality and positioning). Clear outsider ranking.
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 220m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.