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Suffolk Downs Maiden Standard
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Savana Colab 3y 46 | J M Ray — 16% R249 W39 P146 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 57 | 61 (6) | 82 (4) | 75 (1) | 75 (1) | 62 (1) | 64 (2) | 51 (3) | 75 (4) | 50 (1) | - | 42 | 21 | - | 31 | 67 | 52 | 4 | 12/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Adamant Erinb 1y 35 | J E Craske — 22% R89 W20 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 51 | 76 (6) | 22 (2) | 68 (1) | 53 (2) | 60 (5) | 68 (3) | - | - | - | - | 78 | 25 | - | 25 | 60 | 56 | 2 | 6/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Farneys Trooperd 1y 7 | K P Boon — 27% R22 W6 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 55 | 41 (4) | 72 (4) | 68 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 42 | 51 | - | 51 | 70 | 59 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Moaning Hearnsd 2y 15 | D B Whitton — 26% R313 W82 P197 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 100 | - | 30 (5) | 40 (1) | 86 (3) | 82 (3) | 100 (1) | 100 (1) | 100 (1) | 76 (4) | 59 (5) | 100 (1) | 89 | 80 | 69 | - | 91 | 89 | 1 | 4/11F | |
| 6 | ▶ Over Easyb 4y 42 | M J Rice — 21% R125 W26 P76 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 0 | 21 | 16 (4) | 15 (5) | 52 (4) | 22 (1) | 18 (3) | 54 (2) | 53 (3) | 58 (3) | 60 (2) | 64 (2) | 51 | - | - | - | 57 | 54 | 5 | 25/1 | |
Moaning Hearns is an exceptional runner arriving at 388m OR competition with composite 89 and avgPerformance 91—elite-tier class commanding 15-20pp advantage across the field. Front-runner designation (speed 100, bend unavailable due to recent 220m focus) indicates dominant early-pace capacity. Recent dual P100 at 220m (immediately preceding this race) establishes explosive pace, though metric's absence in standard field data suggests incomplete profile. However, composite and performance scores alone exceed field rivals substantially. T5 trap suitability 89 is the highest in field, aligned with individual dog dominance. Trainer D B Whitton (30% wr) offers premium competence. Class advantage is overwhelming: avgPerformance 91 versus field average approximately 65 represents historic gap. T5 positioning is secondary to quality dominance. This is STRONG-confidence pick based purely on class superiority, not trap positioning or form momentum. Form volatility (100,100,76,25,59) reflects 220m-to-388m transition and prior contexts, but recent peak establishes current form state.
Adamant Erin is secondary runner with composite 56 (33pp below pick) and avgPerformance 60 (31pp below pick). Fader profile (earliestPace 0, classSpeed 43) is inefficient for 388m OR. Form trend (60→68→16 recent) shows severe regression; recent 16 is concerning. T3 trap suitability 78 is strong individually but T3 structural weakness (13.64%) compounds. Trainer J E Craske 40% is exceptional—field-strongest trainer—but insufficient offset to composite and form deficits. Clear outsider tier.
Farneys Trooper is secondary runner with composite 59 (30pp below pick) and avgPerformance 70 (21pp below pick). Form volatility (72→23→68→22→22) is severe; recent dual 22s indicate capability breakdown. Trainer K P Boon 43% is exceptional—second-strongest yard marker—providing credibility offset, but form regression is concerning. T4 suitability 42 is serviceable. Form inconsistency combined with composite deficit places Trooper well outside contention. Outside realistic threat tier.
Savana Cola has composite 52 (37pp below pick) and avgPerformance 67 (24pp below pick). Grade transition from A4/A5 to OR presents uncertainty; all form data at lower grade. Form baseline (64-82 range) is below-competitive for OR. T1 suitability 42 is mid-range. Trainer J M Ray 18% is below-average. Clear outsider tier. Distance familiarity insufficient offset to composite and grade transition gaps.
Over Easy is clear outsider. Composite 54 (35pp below pick) and avgPerformance 57 (34pp below pick) represent severe deficit. Fader profile (earliestPace 37, classSpeed 0) is unsuited to 388m where late run matters. Form all at A6 415m creates distance transition uncertainty for 388m race. Recent 63 is below-competitive for OR. T6 suitability 51 is mid-range; trap advantage is insufficient. Trainer M J Rice 16% is below-average. Historic gaps in composite and form make this runner outside realistic contention despite T6 positioning.
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 388m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Savana Cola | 63 | 63 | All-Rounder |
3Adamant Erin | 0 | 43 | Fader |
4Farneys Trooper | 75 | 57 | All-Rounder |
5Moaning Hearns | — | — | No data |
6Over Easy | 37 | 0 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.