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Pam Newbolds Big Birthday Race
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Co Down Beautyb 2y 26 | K Hodson — 20% R255 W51 P140 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 50 | 52 (5) | 62 (4) | 63 (2) | 52 (5) | 57 (4) | 60 (4) | 60 (2) | 59 (4) | 79 (1) | 47 (6) | 45 | 43 | 43 | 31 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 7/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Not Pennys Boatb 2y 27 | K Hodson — 20% R255 W51 P140 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 57 | 43 (5) | 57 (3) | 49 (5) | 77 (1) | 55 (4) | 75 (1) | 72 (1) | 49 (4) | 61 (2) | 55 (2) | 31 | 44 | 35 | 41 | 61 | 53 | 2 | 6/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Droopys Nellb 3y 16 | K Hodson — 20% R255 W51 P140 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 58 | 36 (5) | 43 (5) | 82 (1) | 49 (5) | 41 (5) | 39 (5) | 55 (3) | 81 (1) | 55 (3) | 30 (6) | 33 | 26 | 12 | 22 | 46 | 39 | 5 | 11/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Trickys Nalab 4y 25 | R Holt — 15% R40 W6 P25 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | 40 | 59 (2) | 54 (4) | 55 (4) | 63 (2) | 70 (2) | 45 (4) | 57 (4) | 76 (1) | 64 (3) | 64 (3) | 44 | 39 | 54 | 37 | 63 | 55 | 1 | 1/1F | |
| 5 | ▶ Clonkil Smokeyd 4y 33 | D L Fretwell — 16% R162 W26 P102 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 42 | 60 (3) | 56 (3) | 63 (3) | 77 (1) | 71 (2) | 73 (2) | 57 (4) | 78 (1) | 71 (2) | 49 (4) | 31 | 45 | 51 | 34 | 62 | 53 | 3 | 5/2 | |
The predicted winner — a Closer (EP 0, CS 100) with solid A4 form and the best trainer in the field. AvgPerf 63 is the joint-best. Recent form reads P2(70)→P4(45) 660m IV→P4(57)→P1(76)→P3(64) at A4, with a strong 76 perf win three back showing she can compete at the sharp end. Trainer Holt at 35% is strong-tier — a significant positive in A4 grade where trainer placement matters. Track suit 39 and distance suit 37 are below average, but trap suit 44 and class suit 54 are both positive — she's competitive at this level. Speed 61 is the best in the field, and at Sheffield 500m where the longer run gives Closers a fair chance, her CS 100 profile should let her pick up the pieces when the Faders tire. T4 wins 19.7% from 310 runs — above average. The combination of field-best speed + strong trainer + Closer profile at 500m supports the prediction.
DANGER — three recent A4 wins with improving form. Best bend in the field. Mild Fader who has enough closing ability to potentially hold. Genuine threat to the pick.
Inside rail advantage from T1 helps structurally but below-average form from A3 suggests she's at the bottom of A4 too. May place but winning looks beyond her.
Weakest runner by avgPerf (46) with declining form and poor suitability. The improving trajectory hasn't reached competitive levels. Can be opposed.
Competitive A3 form dropping to A4 with an All-Rounder profile. T5 is a slight structural negative. Place claims likely but winning against the pick's speed advantage is a stretch.
NORMAL separation — R1 22% vs R3 13% = 9pp gap. T1 dominant at 23.5% from 251 runs. Composite rank does separate dogs at A4 level. Speed rank 1 also adds value.
T1:23.5% T2:18.3% T3:17.5% T4:19.7% T5:15.4% T6:16.6%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Co Down Beauty | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Not Pennys Boat | 56 | 21 | Fader |
3Droopys Nell | 60 | 0 | Fader |
4Trickys Nala | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Clonkil Smokey | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.