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Sunday 29th March
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Wholovesyed 4y 27 | D L Fretwell — 16% R162 W26 P102 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 35 | 61 (2) | 55 (3) | 54 (5) | 62 (2) | 49 (5) | 49 (4) | 65 (2) | 52 (4) | 53 (4) | 60 (3) | 43 | 29 | 24 | 29 | 56 | 48 | 3 | 6/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Killduff Pippab 2y 5 | M A P O'donnell — 19% R293 W55 P167 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 57 | 65 (3) | 69 (2) | 85 (1) | 81 (1) | 54 (4) | 60 (4) | 59 (4) | 82 (1) | 82 (1) | 77 (1) | 20 | 27 | - | 24 | 53 | 43 | 6 | 6/4F | |
| 3 | ▶ Swift Megab 1y 28 | S C Oxley — 18% R153 W27 P92 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 53 | 64 (3) | 56 (3) | 53 (4) | 47 (4) | 74 (1) | 44 (5) | 54 (3) | 38 (5) | 68 (2) | 45 (4) | 44 | 52 | - | 38 | 55 | 51 | 1 | 7/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Trickysteddybeard 4y 13 | R Holt — 15% R40 W6 P25 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 38 | 64 (4) | 80 (1) | 68 (2) | 52 (4) | 58 (4) | 65 (2) | 60 (3) | 68 (2) | 74 (1) | 44 (6) | 37 | 41 | 70 | 35 | 62 | 53 | 2 | 10/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Trickys Matildab 4y 24 | R Holt — 15% R40 W6 P25 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 67 | 50 | 60 (4) | 63 (4) | 55 (5) | 65 (3) | 86 (1) | 64 (3) | 72 (2) | 68 (2) | 68 (2) | 79 (2) | 1 | 52 | 30 | 48 | 67 | 55 | 4 | 9/4 | |
| 6 | ▶ Vale Speedyd 3y 4 | D L Fretwell — 16% R162 W26 P102 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 56 | 79 (2) | 68 (2) | 39 (3) | 53 (5) | 63 (3) | 66 (3) | 86 (1) | 65 (2) | 32 (2) | 51 (5) | 3 | 47 | - | 46 | 62 | 52 | 5 | 8/1 | |
The Pred1 projected winner, and the case rests primarily on suitability convergence. Track suit 52 is the joint-best in the field, distance suit 38 is solid, and trap suit 44 is the second-best — she knows Sheffield 500m and has proven she can win here with that 74 perf last time out. Trainer S C Oxley at 20% is unremarkable, but the 50% win rate at these specific conditions (2 from 4) is noteworthy from small sample. She's a Fader (EP 56, CS 22) but a mild one compared to Killduff Pippa — the closing speed of 22 means she doesn't completely die. The concern is wild inconsistency: 74→44→54→38→68 over last five. When she's on, she wins by lengths. When she's off, she's nowhere. In a handicap where the stagger should give her a fair start from T3, the suitability edge gives her the best structural claim.
DANGER — strong Closer profile with class edge (cls70) dropping from A3 to HP. Trainer Holt at 35% is a significant positive. Needs the Faders to tire but with three in the field, pace should be there to close into.
Below-average runner with closing profile that needs pace collapse to feature. Moderate trap suit but weak speed and form trajectory don't support a place chance.
Classic Fader who will show early speed then weaken. Low suitability scores across the board and no closing ability make it hard to see a winning scenario.
Best raw ability in the field (perf 67, speed 67, A2 class) but trap suit of 1 is an overwhelming negative. Consistent placer who may run 2nd again but winning looks unlikely from this position.
Big-race ability when on (86, 82 perf peaks) but trap suit of 3 from T6 and Fader profile at 500m limit confidence. Could win if everything aligns but inconsistency and poor trap fit suggest against.
HANDICAP — staggered starts de-weight trap bias. Speed rating and pace profile elevated. Composite R1 at 22.7% shows the model still has decent predictive value here despite the handicap format.
T1:23.1% T2:20.6% T3:16.3% T4:16.8% T5:15.3% T6:18.6%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Wholovesye | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Killduff Pippa | 63 | 0 | Fader |
3Swift Mega | 56 | 22 | Fader |
4Trickysteddybear | 44 | 64 | Closer |
5Trickys Matilda | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Vale Speedy | 60 | 36 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.