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WATCH PGR ON SKY SPORTS RACING
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Mercia Stiorrab 3y 16 | K S Harrison — 18% R345 W62 P184 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 48 | 44 (5) | 42 (6) | 57 (3) | 57 (3) | 54 (2) | 58 (6) | 61 (1) | 57 (1) | 53 (2) | 56 (1) | 38 | 38 | 12 | 38 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 8/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Scarsdale Sueb 2y 16 | P Meek — 19% R83 W16 P38 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 49 | 39 (5) | 46 (4) | 61 (1) | 55 (1) | 23 (5) | 27 (3) | 27 (2) | 56 (4) | 38 (6) | 57 (4) | 40 | 36 | 11 | 34 | 49 | 44 | 2 | 5/2JF | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Distant Pablod 2y 15 | J R Hall — 18% R308 W54 P161 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 47 | 60 (2) | 45 (5) | 44 (3) | 51 (2) | 51 (3) | 54 (3) | 43 (5) | 39 (6) | 20 (6) | 47 (5) | 1 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 49 | 40 | 4 | 5/2JF | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Swift Olympiab 2y 15 | D T Smith — 15% R383 W58 P183 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 50 | 47 (4) | 47 (4) | 40 (5) | 58 (2) | 46 (3) | 45 (5) | 47 (4) | 65 (1) | 49 (3) | 33 (6) | 38 | 24 | 20 | 18 | 48 | 41 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Bluntys Blue Eyed 2y 15 | M T Field — 20% R229 W46 P119 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 59 | 56 (3) | 58 (1) | 6 (6) | 39 (4) | 40 (4) | 56 (1) | 37 (4) | 48 (2) | 36 (5) | 46 (3) | 18 | 22 | - | 29 | 43 | 37 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Lynnia Maisieb 2y 7 | M T Field — 20% R229 W46 P119 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 61 | 47 (4) | 53 (2) | 42 (6) | 40 (5) | 44 (4) | 61 (3) | 35 (6) | 70 (1) | 67 (1) | 46 (4) | 31 | 32 | 40 | 26 | 49 | 47 | 1 | 4/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercia Stiorra | 29.29 | 29.44 | 29.90 | 51 | +0.61 | ||
| 2 | Scarsdale Sue | 29.24 | 29.51 | — | 48 | — | ||
| 3 | Distant Pablo | 29.32 | 29.52 | — | 53 | — | Worst trap | |
| 4 | Swift Olympia | 29.32 | 29.62 | — | 47 | — | ||
| 5 | Bluntys Blue Eye | 29.19 | 29.96 | — | 43 | — | ||
| 6 | Lynnia Maisie | 29.22 | 29.53 | — | 51 | — | Best trap, model pick |
Over Dunstall Park's 480 metres, the draw pattern at A6 level favours the stripes box, which has produced the most winners of any trap, with the white jacket the weakest performer by some way. The ratings here are a genuinely shaky guide too — the top-rated dog wins under one in five at this grade and trip, well below what you'd hope for, so this is a race where the draw and the clock carry extra weight. Lynnia Maisie ticks both those boxes — drawn in the best-performing trap and rated highly across the board. Distant Pablo is the quickest on the clock but comes from the very worst draw, while Mercia Stiorra brings the strongest recent scoring but from a middling box. Expect the fast-starters to set things up early, with the finishers looking to pick up the pieces late.
Finished 4th last time out and form has been fair without a recent win, but the trap here does a lot of the talking — the stripes box has been the most productive draw at this course, trip and grade by a healthy margin. Fast early but tends to lose ground late, so she'll want to press on and make the most of that pace before the closers arrive. Carries a respectable speed figure, sitting just behind the fastest in the field, and this is where the various ratings models find the most agreement in this race. The draw advantage combined with that model support gives her the best-rounded case.
Finished 2nd two starts back and carries the fastest speed rating of anyone in this field, a genuine standout on the clock. A patient finisher who does his best work from off the pace, closing off his races strongly. The concern is the draw — the white jacket has been comfortably the least productive box at this course, trip and grade, which is a real structural knock against him. If he can overcome the draw and get a clean passage, the raw speed makes him the biggest threat to the selection.
Finished 5th last time out and carries the highest average performance figure in this field, built on a run of solid scores a few starts back, even if the very latest efforts haven't matched that peak. A patient closer who relies on the pace holding up in front of her. The red jacket is a moderate draw at this trip, not among the leading or the weakest boxes. Worth including given the strength of her recent peak form, even if the last couple of runs have tailed off.
Finished 4th last time out and her form has been steady without threatening to win recently. A balanced runner who can race prominently or come from off the pace as the race dictates. The black jacket is a moderate draw at this trip. Nothing in her figures stands out as a leading factor, but she's competitive enough to feature in the finish if things fall right.
Finished 5th last time out and her recent form has been patchy, though there's a peak performance in the low 60s a handful of starts back showing she has more when things click. Races in a balanced style, capable of both leading and coming from off the pace. The blue jacket is a moderate draw at this trip. A useful trainer with a healthy strike rate adds a touch of encouragement, but the recent form is inconsistent.
Finished 3rd last time out and form has been erratic, including a standout run of 6th-from-top performance a few starts back sandwiched between much weaker efforts — genuinely inconsistent rather than in decline. She holds the single fastest individual time of anyone in this field, even though her average times are the slowest here. Fast early but tends to fade late, and her closing figures confirm that pattern. The orange jacket is a reasonable draw at this trip.
Key insight: The top-rated dog wins under one in five at this grade and trip — a weak guide on its own — so the trap draw and the clock carry extra weight this evening.
Trap 6 strongest at 22.4%, trap 3 weakest at 13.7%
872 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Mercia Stiorra | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Scarsdale Sue | 51 | 46 | All-Rounder |
3Distant Pablo | 47 | 81 | Closer |
4Swift Olympia | 49 | 54 | All-Rounder |
5Bluntys Blue Eye | 58 | 0 | Fader |
6Lynnia Maisie | 63 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 480m | 660m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercia Stiorra | — | 0.613 | 0.635 |
| 2 | Scarsdale Sue | 0.621 | 0.615 | — |
| 3 | Distant Pablo | 0.623 | 0.615 | — |
| 4 | Swift Olympia | — | 0.617 | — |
| 5 | Bluntys Blue Eye | — | 0.624 | — |
| 6 | Lynnia Maisie | — | 0.615 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.