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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Skin Faded 2y 19 | I E Walker — 16% R223 W35 P104 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 60 | 57 (3) | 58 (3) | 43 (6) | 52 (5) | 52 (4) | 54 (3) | 82 (1) | 55 (6) | 54 (5) | 81 (1) | 41 | 36 | 32 | 16 | 56 | 40 | 3 | 6/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Sky Blue Jeffd 2y 16 | J R Hall — 18% R308 W54 P161 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 40 | 49 (5) | 60 (4) | 59 (4) | 63 (2) | 79 (1) | 57 (3) | 71 (3) | 51 (6) | 69 (4) | 72 (5) | 23 | 31 | 32 | 25 | 61 | 44 | 5 | 9/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Breezerd 2y 6 | R Lambe — 26% R124 W32 P76 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 49 | 76 (1) | 64 (2) | 55 (4) | 57 (3) | 60 (3) | 56 (5) | 60 (2) | 78 (1) | 46 (5) | 65 (2) | 32 | 13 | 7 | 37 | 63 | 50 | 4 | 9/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Bombay Tildab 2y 35 | D T Smith — 15% R383 W58 P183 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 53 | 19 (2) | 97 (1) | 54 (4) | 64 (3) | 72 (1) | 46 (5) | 60 (3) | 15 (3) | 20 (2) | 14 (5) | 27 | 21 | 23 | 19 | 51 | 32 | 6 | 9/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ False Warriord 3y 7 | J R Hall — 18% R308 W54 P161 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 61 | 66 (2) | 49 (5) | 71 (2) | 66 (3) | 52 (6) | 71 (2) | 85 (1) | 85 (1) | 81 (1) | 68 (2) | 45 | 52 | 32 | 47 | 66 | 58 | 1 | 7/4F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Seomra Opheliab 2y 28 | C A Gilbert — 24% R50 W12 P26 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 45 | 59 (6) | 72 (4) | 89 (3) | 84 (2) | 93 (3) | 70 (3) | 58 (5) | 100 (1) | 48 (6) | 55 (5) | 22 | 28 | - | - | 74 | 48 | 2 | 9/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skin Fade | 28.72 | 29.12 | — | 45 | — | Best trap | |
| 2 | Sky Blue Jeff | 28.78 | 29.01 | — | 48 | — | ||
| 3 | Breezer | 28.74 | 29.00 | — | 53 | — | Worst trap | |
| 4 | Bombay Tilda | 28.99 | 29.21 | — | 39 | — | dist change | |
| 5 | False Warrior | 28.75 | 28.97 | — | 55 | — | Model pick | |
| 6 | Seomra Ophelia | 28.91 | 29.03 | — | 51 | — | dist change |
Dunstall Park's 480 metres has a short run to the first bend, and at A3 level the draw is stark — the red jacket has won close to a quarter of races here while the white jacket has managed less than one in eleven, one of the biggest trap gaps at this track. This looks a strong race for the grade, and False Warrior stands out on almost every measure — the highest average performance figure, clear top scoring across every rating model in the dataset, and the best suitability figures in the field. Seomra Ophelia arrives fresh off a marathon distance at open grade and carries eye-catching raw figures, but that form comes from a completely different type of race. Expect the fast starters to dictate matters early, with the class acts looking to assert from the middle stages.
Steps down from A2 grade after finishing 2nd two weeks ago, and the class drop looks a real positive — she carries the highest average performance figure of anyone in this field and every rating model in this dataset lines up behind her, a rare level of unanimous support. Her suitability figures for this course, trip and class are also the strongest in the race by some distance. Fast away but tends to lose ground in the closing stages, so the concern is whether she's caught if things turn into a war of attrition — but with this much quality in hand over the rest of the field, that fade may simply not matter.
Drops in sharply from open-grade company over a much longer marathon trip, and her raw average performance figure is actually the highest of anyone in this race — but that needs a heavy caveat, because it was built against much stronger opposition over nearly 200 extra metres, a completely different test. Her course and distance suitability figures here are close to nothing, reflecting the total lack of experience at this specific trip. A patient closer who does her best work late, which could suit if the pace up front is genuinely strong. If any of that open-grade quality carries over to the minimum-plus trip, she's dangerous, but it's a leap of faith rather than a proven form line.
Won last time out and her recent scoring has been solid, finishing in the frame regularly. Carries a strong trainer with a healthy strike rate and a decent turn of foot on the clock too. The white jacket, though, has been close to a structural elimination at this course, trip and grade, winning barely one in eleven — that's the single biggest concern working against her today. Fast early but fades late, which combined with the poor draw makes this a tough spot.
Finished 5th last time out and form has been indifferent through recent starts. Holds the best average time of anyone in this field, a point in his favour, but a patient finisher who needs the race to fall right in front of him. The blue jacket is a fair, unremarkable draw at this trip. Competitive but without the standout factor the top two runners bring.
Finished 3rd last time out, three weeks ago, and form has been consistent through recent starts. Holds the fastest individual time recorded of anyone in this field. Drawn in the red jacket, the best-performing box at this course, trip and grade, which is a genuine structural plus. Fast early but tends to lose ground in the closing stages, so needs to get away cleanly and make the most of the good draw before the class runners arrive.
Returns after a run in Ireland at a slightly longer trip, so there's a small element of the unknown about how she settles back in at this course. The slowest speed rating of anyone in this field is the headline concern. The black jacket is a fair, workable draw at this trip. On the figures presented, she has the most to find of anyone in this line-up.
Key insight: The trap 3 draw is close to a structural elimination at this grade and trip, winning under one in eleven, while the selection combines total model agreement with the best suitability figures in the field.
Trap 1 strongest at 22.4%, trap 3 weakest at just 8.9% — one of the widest gaps at this track
710 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Skin Fade | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Sky Blue Jeff | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Breezer | 100 | 0 | Fader |
4Bombay Tilda | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5False Warrior | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6Seomra Ophelia | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 480m | 500m | 660m | 661m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skin Fade | 0.607 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Sky Blue Jeff | 0.604 | — | 0.616 | — |
| 3 | Breezer | 0.604 | 0.619 | — | — |
| 4 | Bombay Tilda | 0.609 | 0.616 | 0.616 | — |
| 5 | False Warrior | 0.604 | — | — | — |
| 6 | Seomra Ophelia | 0.605 | — | 0.613 | 0.634 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.