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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Naphillb 4y 27 | E G Samuels — 16% R633 W101 P354 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 50 | 67 (2) | 68 (2) | 55 (3) | 62 (2) | 44 (4) | 64 (6) | 18 (3) | 60 (2) | 64 (3) | - | 43 | 39 | 27 | 38 | 64 | 56 | 1 | 6/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Rosshill Annieb 2y 25 | K J Cobbold — 24% R152 W36 P97 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 39 | 45 (5) | 63 (2) | 61 (4) | 67 (5) | 50 (3) | 67 (6) | 87 (4) | 67 (1) | 63 (3) | - | 27 | 42 | 50 | 32 | 65 | 54 | 4 | 3/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Golden Passionb 3y 18 | K J Cobbold — 24% R152 W36 P97 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 71 | 52 | 80 (2) | 84 (2) | 70 (1) | 71 (3) | 72 (2) | 73 (4) | 91 (3) | 82 (1) | 68 (2) | - | 51 | 46 | 35 | 45 | 78 | 67 | 5 | 5/4F | |
| 4 | ▶ Hecrossedthesead 3y 15 | K L Windebank — 17% R548 W92 P308 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 46 | 65 (3) | 69 (2) | 78 (4) | 66 (1) | 70 (2) | 52 (1) | 49 (4) | 49 (4) | 50 (4) | - | 20 | 34 | 15 | 32 | 58 | 48 | 3 | 20/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Aayamza Cryptob 2y 7 | S Knights — 19% R123 W23 P65 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 57 | 56 (5) | 63 (1) | 67 (3) | 75 (3) | 76 (2) | 70 (3) | 57 (4) | 54 (4) | 42 (4) | - | 32 | 25 | 31 | 34 | 57 | 48 | 2 | 7/4 | |
| 6 | ▶ Rathcoole Nutzd 5yN/R 14 | I J Barnard — 23% R262 W59 P162 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 15 | 44 | 26 (5) | 28 (6) | 50 (1) | 15 (3) | 12 (5) | 34 (4) | 52 (1) | 38 (3) | 71 (1) | 28 (4) | 19 | 12 | - | 22 | 37 | 30 | - | - | |
The model's projected winner from an inside draw. An All-Rounder (EP 54, CS 47, consistency 84) with a solid form trajectory at this level: P60→P75→P78→P66 in recent runs, with the P78 coming from a T1 win at A4 (11 March) and the P75 from a 2nd at A3 from T1 (18 March). He knows this venue, this distance, and this trap — track suit 39, distance suit 38, trap suit 43 are all respectable without being outstanding. Trainer Samuels at 14% is below average. The case for Naphill rests on reliability and positioning: at Yarmouth's 462m, an inside-drawn All-Rounder with decent early pace (EP 54) can save ground through the bends and be in the right place approaching the home straight. His speed rating of 49 is mid-pack and bend rating of 50 is average. The P60 last time (3rd at A3) is a concern — that's below his best and came at this grade. But the two runs before (P75, P78) show his ceiling at A3/A4 is competitive. A Tentative selection because while the form supports the grade, there's no single dominant factor — no structural trap advantage (T1 is 18.6%/188 runs, neutral), no class gap, no elite speed. He's the pick by accumulation of small edges rather than one big one.
Class standout with avgPerf 78 in a field averaging ~55, drawn in DOMINANT T3 (25.6%/258). Speed 71 is unmatched. Only concern is 5+ weeks since last open race. The clear danger — she has the ability to win this by daylight if fit.
Extreme Closer with good speed (58) but EP 0 and weak T2 draw (16.3%/209 runs). P87 peak shows class but recent form has declined (P61, P50). Needs everything to fall right — too many conditionals for a selection.
Recent A4 winner stepping into A3 where his class suit is just 15. Speed 42 is lowest in field and trap suit 20 from a neutral draw offers no help. Likely outclassed at this grade — needs significant improvement.
Best early pace (EP 59) and will lead, but avgPerf 57 is mid-pack at A3 and structural position is weak from T5 (15.3%/222 runs). Honest front runner likely caught in the home straight by classier closers.
A9 dog in an A3 race from the DEAD T6 draw. AvgPerf 37 vs field average ~55. Speed 15 is the worst in the field by far. The structural and class mismatch is overwhelming — can be confidently opposed.
T3 dominates at A3 Yarmouth 462m at 25.6% from 258 runs — significantly above expected. R1 vs R3 gap is 6.4pp (normal) but R5 bizarrely wins 23.5% which suggests the model is somewhat noisy at this grade. T6 dead at 13.3% from a large 240-run sample.
T1:18.6% T2:16.3% T3:25.6% T4:17.9% T5:15.3% T6:13.3%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Naphill | 54 | 47 | All-Rounder |
2Rosshill Annie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Golden Passion | 52 | 83 | Closer |
4Hecrossedthesea | 48 | 53 | All-Rounder |
5Aayamza Crypto | 59 | 47 | Front Runner |
6Rathcoole Nutz | 38 | 36 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.