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Arena Racing Company Gents 480m Trophy Heat 1
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tiermana Rockyd 3y 6 | D E Fradgley — 15% R97 W15 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 68 | 35 (5) | 50 (2) | 48 (3) | 48 (2) | 73 (3) | 72 (2) | 75 (2) | 49 (2) | 52 (2) | 42 (3) | 53 | 30 | 21 | 63 | 58 | 55 | 3 | 5/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Stonepark Wesd 4y 33 | D E Fradgley — 15% R97 W15 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 70 | 41 | 68 (3) | 48 (3) | 67 (3) | 91 (1) | 54 (6) | 74 (3) | 67 (2) | 74 (3) | 90 (1) | 67 (4) | 58 | 62 | 33 | 18 | 65 | 58 | 1 | 11/4 | |
| 3 | ▶ Tiermana Blazed 3y 13 | D E Fradgley — 15% R97 W15 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 2 | 56 (2) | 53 (3) | 59 (4) | 78 (4) | 89 (2) | 64 (1) | 65 (1) | 64 (3) | 70 (2) | 55 (5) | 76 | 40 | - | 23 | 73 | 64 | 2 | 3/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Swift Maxwelld 3y 26 | J R Hall — 21% R330 W69 P186 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 81 | 62 (4) | 52 (6) | 68 (3) | 44 (2) | 50 (6) | 54 (3) | 77 (6) | 91 (2) | 67 (1) | - | 12 | 15 | - | 41 | 66 | 51 | 6 | 12/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Ballymac Ogd 2y 25 | J R Hall — 21% R330 W69 P186 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 79 | 67 (4) | 63 (4) | 59 (5) | 67 (6) | 54 (4) | 62 (1) | 66 (5) | 55 (4) | - | - | 40 | - | 15 | 44 | 66 | 58 | 4 | 16/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Peregrine Messid 3y 25 | E O Driver — 21% R319 W66 P198 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 67 | 0 | 60 (5) | 83 (2) | 78 (3) | 58 (6) | 55 (4) | 93 (1) | 72 (6) | 89 (4) | 54 (1) | - | 42 | 46 | 37 | 37 | 74 | 63 | 5 | 9/4F | |
Stonepark Wes is the Pred1 selection with H3 of 99.0 — the highest in the field, driven primarily by his outstanding speed rating of 70 (best by some distance) and strong suitability (mean 42.8, best in field). He's a Fader (EP 100, CS 0) who'll share the early pace with Rocky (T1) and Swift Maxwell (T4). His form is trial-heavy: P22 at Nottingham 500m T2 was a trial win, and recent competitive form at Doncaster/Sheffield reads 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd — consistent placing at OR3/IV level. Average performance of 65 is the second-highest in the field. Track suit 62 (best, confirming some Nottingham form) and trap suit 58 are both strong. The concern is T2: it wins just 15.4% from 26 runs at 480m OR3 Nottingham — structurally the weakest occupied trap (T5/T6 aside). His bend rating of 41 is below average — at a track where bend is decisive, this is a genuine limitation. Trainer Fradgley at 28% is strong. The pick rests on the speed advantage (70 vs field) being large enough to overcome the structural trap deficit. At 480m where the track plays tight, that's a bigger ask than at 500m.
DANGER (AI PICK): DOMINANT T1 (30.0%) + best bend (68) + EP 100 at 480m where first-bend position is paramount. The structural case is stronger than for the Pred1 pick. Mid-field perf (58) is the main limitation but the structural advantage at this specific distance/track partially compensates.
Best perf (73) in the DOMINANT T3 (35.0%), but Closer profile (EP 0, CS 100) with bend 2 at tight-playing 480m is a fundamental mismatch. The trap wins when occupied by early-pace dogs — she's the opposite. Class could override at a fair track but 480m Nottingham plays tight.
Outstanding bend (81) and EP 100 in structurally strong T4 (25.0%), but steeply declining form (91→66→54→33) and zero Nottingham form (track suit 15). The pace tools are there but the current trajectory suggests he can't deliver.
DEAD T5 (5.6%) with Closer profile at tight-playing 480m and zero venue form. Mid-field perf (66) with declining Dunstall form. One to oppose — the structural position alone is near-fatal.
A1 form (P93 win) and best perf in the field (74), but T6 has ZERO wins from 12 runs at these conditions. Closer from the widest draw at tight-playing 480m. The class is real but the structural position has literally never produced a winner here.
Small sample (112 runs) but the inside/middle trap dominance is stark. T3 at 35.0% and T1 at 30.0% are structurally dominant. T6 has ZERO wins from 12 runs. T5 barely wins at 5.6%. At tight-playing 480m Nottingham, inside traps and early pace decide races. Composite R1 wins 30.0% — strong separation.
T1:30.0%(20) T2:15.4%(26) T3:35.0%(20) T4:25.0%(16) T5:5.6%(18) T6:0.0%(12)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tiermana Rocky | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Stonepark Wes | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Tiermana Blaze | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Swift Maxwell | 100 | 0 | Fader |
5Ballymac Og | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Peregrine Messi | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.