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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Dinton Fredd 4y 27 | R A Baker — 19% R70 W13 P33 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 49 | 60 (1) | 40 (2) | 59 (1) | 57 (1) | 55 (5) | 91 (5) | 85 (1) | 81 (1) | 87 (2) | - | 28 | 61 | - | 59 | 62 | 42 | 1 | 7/4F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Gurtnacrehy Noahd 1y 5 | R A Baker — 19% R70 W13 P33 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 49 | 45 (4) | 57 (1) | 34 (5) | 27 (5) | 49 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | 44 | 28 | - | 29 | 43 | 33 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Deerland Flyerd 2y 16 | D D Porter — 16% R467 W76 P251 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 50 | 36 (5) | 37 (5) | 36 (4) | 43 (3) | 44 (3) | 45 (4) | 48 (4) | 48 (6) | 52 (6) | - | 24 | - | - | - | 42 | 37 | 2 | 8/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Cragbrien Herod 2y 16 | D D Porter — 16% R467 W76 P251 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 50 | 48 (3) | 46 (3) | 44 (3) | 30 (4) | 31 (4) | 24 (6) | 36 (1) | 27 (2) | 32 (1) | 24 (2) | 20 | 21 | - | - | 35 | 45 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cragbrien Hero | 27.40 | 27.42 | 27.40 | 60 | 0.00 | Dropping in grade | |
| 1 | Dinton Fred | 27.38 | 27.64 | 27.86 | 50 | +0.48 | Best trap, model pick | |
| 5 | Deerland Flyer | 27.40 | 27.74 | 27.91 | 46 | +0.51 | Modest form | |
| 3 | Gurtnacrehy Noah | 27.63 | 27.98 | 27.63 | 43 | 0.00 | Won last time, up in grade | |
| 2 | Darraghs Dream | No competitive races or trials on file - a complete unknown. | — | True unknown | ||||
| 4 | Countess Velvet | No competitive races or trials on file - a complete unknown. | — | True unknown | ||||
Towcester's 460 metre trip still rewards the dogs that get across into the first bend cleanly, and in this B3 grade trap 1 has been the standout box, winning a quarter of races from 32 runs, while trap 6 has struggled at just 10.7%. Two of the six here, Darraghs Dream and Countess Velvet, are complete unknowns with no competitive or trial form on file at all, which makes this as much a guessing game for them as an analytical one. Dinton Fred gets the plum draw and has the strongest all-round profile on offer. Cragbrien Hero steps down in grade after knocking on the door at the level above and has the sharpest early pace of anyone with proven form, so expect him to be prominent from the box, even though trap 6 is working against him.
Gets trap 1, comfortably the best-performing box in this grade at 25% from 32 runs, and carries the best average performance figure of anyone with proven form. His most recent runs have been workmanlike rather than spectacular, but he hit peaks of 91 and 85 a handful of races back, showing he has more in the tank than his last couple of efforts suggest. Good suitability figures for this track and distance, and trainer R A Baker, who also saddles Gurtnacrehy Noah in this field, has a solid 20% strike rate. The best-rounded package on offer.
Drops down from the grade above after knocking on the door there, and carries the fastest recorded time of anyone with proven form in this race. A fader by profile with a very consistent, sharp early pace, he should be right on terms from the box early. The one significant knock is trap 6, which has been the weakest box in this grade at just 10.7%, and stepping down a level doesn't always translate immediately. Still, the drop in class plus the pace figures make him the biggest threat to the selection.
A genuine mystery box with no competitive races and no trial form recorded anywhere on file. Trainer D D Porter also has two other runners in this field, so there's clearly been thought put into this one's placement, but with literally nothing to go on there's no way to assess how she'll cope with genuine race traffic. Trap 2 has been moderate in this grade. Impossible to make a case either way.
Won impressively last time out at the grade below, a rating of 57 that represents a career-best, and now steps up to face this tougher B3 company. Shows fast early pace but fades in the closing stages, and his suitability figures away from the trap itself are modest. Trainer R A Baker doubles up here with Dinton Fred. Worth including on the strength of that recent win, but stepping up in grade off one good run is exactly the kind of case that can go either way.
Like her fellow debutant in trap 2, this one arrives with absolutely no competitive form and no trial data on file anywhere. Trainer K R Hutton has a reasonable overall strike rate, but there is nothing concrete here to build a case on. Trap 4 has been the weakest of the busier boxes in this grade at just 13.3%, which only adds to the questions hanging over this runner. Could have ability, but it's impossible to say from the paperwork alone.
Form has been consistently modest, with figures in the mid-30s to mid-40s across his last six starts and no real peak above 48 to suggest untapped ability. A closer who needs the race to be run hard up front, but with several faster types drawn around him tonight that scenario looks less likely than usual. Trap 5 is a fair box in this grade. Hard to build a case for him beating the more progressive runners here.
Key insight: Trap 1 has been clearly the best box in this grade, winning 25% from 32 runs, while trap 6 has managed only 10.7%. The composite top pick has actually underperformed in this specific grade sample, so the trap and form data carry more weight than the raw model here.
T1:25.0% T2:15.6% T3:21.9% T4:13.3% T5:17.9% T6:10.7%
182 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Dinton Fred | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Gurtnacrehy Noah | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Deerland Flyer | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Cragbrien Hero | 55 | 32 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 450m | 460m | 476m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinton Fred | — | 0.612 | 0.599 | 0.602 |
| 3 | Gurtnacrehy Noah | — | — | 0.606 | — |
| 5 | Deerland Flyer | — | 0.619 | 0.603 | 0.614 |
| 6 | Cragbrien Hero | 0.608 | — | 0.597 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.