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Betway 460
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Arthur Lobsterb 3y 23 | P N Godfrey — 10% R40 W4 P17 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 57 | 71 (3) | 72 (4) | 67 (2) | 61 (5) | 68 (3) | 72 (3) | 70 (5) | 61 (5) | 67 (4) | 69 (4) | 7 | 10 | 5 | - | 67 | 34 | 5 | 25/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Start The Engined 3y 13 | K R Hutton — 26% R117 W31 P65 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 69 | 55 | 77 (2) | 95 (1) | 47 (3) | 66 (1) | 45 (6) | 100 (1) | 47 (6) | 81 (2) | 59 (6) | 100 (1) | 77 | 70 | 95 | 70 | 72 | 68 | 1 | 1/3F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Arthur Portionb 1y 14 | P N Godfrey — 10% R40 W4 P17 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 46 | 80 (2) | 91 (1) | 71 (2) | 71 (2) | 56 (5) | 64 (4) | 57 (5) | - | - | - | 7 | 28 | 26 | 41 | 71 | 35 | 3 | 50/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Coppice Ferryd 2y 27 | K R Hutton — 26% R117 W31 P65 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 64 | 57 | 95 (1) | 73 (2) | 65 (4) | 78 (3) | 94 (1) | 87 (2) | 72 (2) | 47 (6) | 70 (3) | 69 (3) | 19 | 45 | 67 | 55 | 78 | 51 | 2 | 2/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Droopys Pioneerd 1y 15 | M L Locke — 25% R309 W78 P184 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 43 | 67 (3) | 91 (1) | 67 (3) | 31 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | 25 | 10 | 24 | 75 | 38 | 4 | 12/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Gurteen Decd 3y 31 | J Campbell — 6% R33 W2 P18 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 12 | 0 | 82 (4) | 54 (5) | 47 (6) | 79 (2) | 85 (2) | 56 (5) | 83 (1) | 54 (4) | 69 (2) | 65 (2) | 19 | 15 | - | - | 68 | 35 | 6 | 50/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Start The Engine | 26.44 | 26.47 | 26.44 | 69 | 0.00 | Odds-on heat winner | |
| 4 | Coppice Ferry | 26.44 | 26.70 | 26.44 | 64 | 0.00 | Biggest engine, weak trap | |
| 5 | Droopys Pioneer | 26.82 | 26.86 | 26.82 | 50 | 0.00 | Fast early, thin form | |
| 1 | Arthur Lobster | 26.84 | 26.84 | 26.84 | 49 | 0.00 | Weak suitability profile | |
| 3 | Arthur Portion | 26.86 | 27.25 | 26.86 | 41 | 0.00 | Won own heat, best trap | |
| 6 | Gurteen Dec | Last run was a 695m marathon - times not comparable at this trip. | — | Dropping from 695m | ||||
This Open race looks a proper decider - three of the six runners, Start The Engine, Arthur Portion and Coppice Ferry, all won their qualifying heats over this course and distance on 5 July, and two different yards (K R Hutton with Start The Engine and Coppice Ferry, and P N Godfrey with Arthur Lobster and Arthur Portion) each field a pair. Towcester's 460 metre trip still rewards a sharp getaway into the first bend, and on the numbers from this grade trap 3 and trap 2 have produced the most winners while trap 6 has drawn a blank altogether, albeit from a small sample. Start The Engine travelled workmanlike as the well-backed heat winner and looks the type to sit close and pounce, while Coppice Ferry, the biggest engine on raw figures, likes to press forward and could be involved throughout. Gurteen Dec drops down sharply from a marathon trip last time and is the outsider of the six on pace fit.
Won his qualifying heat over this exact course and distance readily as a 2/5 favourite, travelling in touch throughout before asserting - the sort of performance that puts a target on his back tonight. Carries the fastest recorded time in this field and, unusually for a race with so much unproven form, his suitability figures across trap, class, track and distance are all strong, suggesting the conditions genuinely suit him. Trap 2 has been the second-best box in this grade, and trainer K R Hutton, who also saddles Coppice Ferry, has a decent 20% strike rate. The clear market leader on recent evidence.
Carries the highest average performance figure in the entire field and, like his stablemate Start The Engine, comes here off a heat win over this course and distance. Shows fast early pace but has a tendency to lose ground late, and trap 4 has been comfortably the weakest of the busier boxes in this small sample at just 11.8%. On raw ability he's the one to beat the selection, and with the same trainer fielding both of the market principals, this could easily go the other way.
Finished only fourth in his qualifying heat and, while his average performance figure of 67 keeps him in touch on official figures, his suitability scores for this track, class and distance are all poor. A confirmed closer who needs the race run hard in front of him. Trainer P N Godfrey also has Arthur Portion in this field, but this looks the weaker of the pair on the balance of the evidence.
Won his own qualifying heat readily as a 5/4 favourite, leading throughout from a quick break, and gets the historically best-performing box in this grade at 30%. His suitability figures away from raw speed are modest, and he's shown a fading tendency once headed, but a proven fast starter from the strongest trap on offer can't be dismissed. One of two runners for trainer P N Godfrey alongside Arthur Lobster.
Shows the fastest early pace profile in the race on paper and was third in his heat without ever threatening the principals. Form is limited to just four recorded runs so it's early days on assessing him properly, but a previous rating of 91 shows he has ability when things click. Trainer M L Locke has a useful 24% strike rate. Others have stronger recent claims.
Steps down sharply from a 695 metre marathon last time out to this 460 metre sprint trip, a big change of gear that leaves his suitability figures for this distance at zero - a genuine unknown. Trap 6 hasn't produced a winner from 17 attempts in this grade, the worst record on the card, and his recorded times simply aren't comparable at this shorter trip. Hard to have any confidence in him finding the pace needed here.
Key insight: A small sample at this level - only 114 runs - but trap 3 and trap 2 have been the strongest boxes at 30% and 28.6% respectively, while trap 6 hasn't produced a single winner from 17 attempts. The top-rated dog on the day wins 30% of the time here.
T1:20.0% T2:28.6% T3:30.0% T4:11.8% T5:21.1% T6:0.0%
114 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 460m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Arthur Lobster | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Start The Engine | 27 | 100 | Closer |
3Arthur Portion | 74 | 0 | Fader |
4Coppice Ferry | 73 | 0 | Fader |
5Droopys Pioneer | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6Gurteen Dec | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 460m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (460m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 270m | 277m | 305m | 400m | 450m | 460m | 476m | 480m | 500m | 515m | 650m | 695m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arthur Lobster | — | 0.604 | — | 0.605 | 0.616 | — | 0.583 | — | 0.601 | 0.596 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Start The Engine | 0.600 | 0.600 | — | — | — | 0.594 | 0.574 | — | 0.603 | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | Arthur Portion | — | — | — | — | 0.612 | — | 0.590 | — | 0.611 | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | Coppice Ferry | — | — | — | — | — | 0.604 | 0.580 | — | 0.593 | 0.584 | — | — | — |
| 5 | Droopys Pioneer | — | — | 0.605 | — | — | 0.611 | 0.584 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | Gurteen Dec | — | — | — | — | — | 0.607 | — | 0.608 | — | 0.599 | 0.595 | 0.616 | 0.620 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.