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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ As Happy As Brynd 1y 28 | H J Dimmock — 25% R195 W48 P108 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 50 | 90 (1) | 78 (1) | 46 (5) | 54 (3) | 46 (3) | 34 (4) | 59 (1) | 50 (3) | 19 (6) | 22 (5) | 5 | 9 | - | 27 | 55 | 34 | 5 | 2/1F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Fabulous Masieb 3yN/R 22 | L G Tuffin — 21% R261 W55 P132 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 28 (4) | 31 (3) | 28 (4) | 73 (3) | 63 (4) | 83 (3) | 89 (2) | 66 (3) | 66 (2) | 61 (6) | 39 | 30 | - | 19 | 52 | 37 | - | - | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Fabulous Liviab 3yREP 5 | L G Tuffin — 21% R261 W55 P132 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 52 | 89 (1) | 67 (3) | 33 (5) | 81 (1) | 81 (1) | 56 (5) | 34 (4) | 37 (3) | 43 (1) | 55 (4) | 40 | 50 | 20 | 40 | 66 | 53 | 1 | 9/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Last Moonb 2y 13 | L J Pruhs — 21% R24 W5 P12 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 44 | 58 (4) | 67 (3) | 42 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 26 | 38 | - | - | 62 | 49 | 3 | 5/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Blitz Hurricaneb 3y 27 | J J Gornall — 13% R68 W9 P29 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 54 | 52 (4) | 57 (4) | 48 (6) | 56 (4) | 72 (2) | 59 (1) | 45 (4) | 45 (4) | 42 (3) | 75 (3) | 29 | 15 | - | 8 | 56 | 43 | 2 | 12/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Frankton Daisyb 3y 26 | C Weatherall — 17% R98 W17 P53 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 36 | 68 (5) | 63 (5) | 79 (1) | 74 (4) | 83 (2) | 88 (1) | 77 (1) | 73 (1) | 54 (3) | 65 (2) | 34 | 33 | 52 | 57 | 73 | 45 | 6 | 9/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Jaz Styled 2y 16 | J J Gornall — 13% R68 W9 P29 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 58 | 49 (3) | 53 (2) | 36 (5) | 54 (5) | 65 (4) | 44 (6) | 50 (6) | 48 (6) | 81 (1) | 38 (6) | 11 | 11 | - | 10 | 52 | 41 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jaz Style | 29.07 | 29.77 | 29.67 | 55 | +0.60 | Up in grade and distance | |
| 4 | Blitz Hurricane | 29.30 | 29.67 | 29.69 | 53 | +0.39 | Consistent at today's conditions | |
| 3 | Last Moon | 29.48 | 29.52 | 29.56 | 56 | +0.08 | Dropping from Open grade | |
| 1 | As Happy As Bryn | 29.54 | 29.96 | 29.54 | 46 | 0.00 | Best trap, best trainer | |
| 2 | Fabulous Masie | 29.63 | 29.64 | 29.65 | 50 | +0.02 | Sprint interlude, back up in trip | |
| 5 | Frankton Daisy | 29.59 | 29.76 | 29.88 | 45 | +0.29 | Down sharply from a marathon trip |
This is a solid, honest A3 grade over Towcester's 500 metres, and the model tends to hold up reasonably well at this level. Trap 1 has been comfortably the best box in this grade, winning nearly 26% from 190 runs, while trap 5 has been the weakest at under 14%. As Happy As Bryn gets that favoured trap and arrives on the back of a win at the grade below for the yard's best trainer on the card. Last Moon drops down in class after running in Open company and could easily prove ahead of his current rating if it translates, though a big drop like that always comes with a health warning. Frankton Daisy steps down sharply in trip from a marathon last time out, while Jaz Style faces a step up in both grade and distance from B3 company.
Won last time out at the grade below and now steps up into this stronger A3 company, a natural progression rather than a stretch. Gets trap 1, comfortably the best-performing box in this grade at nearly 26% from 190 runs, and is trained by H J Dimmock, who has the best strike rate of any handler in this race at 28%. Shows fast early pace but tends to fade late, and his suitability figures away from the trap itself are modest, but the combination of the best draw and the best trainer on the card is hard to overlook.
Drops down into this A3 grade after running in Open company last time out, and carries the second-best recorded speed in the field. A drop of this size can flatter a rating built against much stronger opposition, so his figures should be treated with a little caution rather than taken entirely at face value, but there is clearly real quality underneath if it translates at this level. Trainer L J Pruhs has a useful 20% strike rate. The one most likely to upset the favourite if the drop in class is genuine.
Her recent runs have been poor, but they came over a much shorter sprint trip at a lower grade - a different puzzle entirely to tonight's assignment. Further back, at more conventional conditions, she was running to a rating of 73, only a handful of starts ago, so this looks more like a mismatched recent booking than a genuine loss of form. Her suitability figures for this specific distance are still on the light side. Trap 2 has been a reasonable box in this grade.
Already racing at this exact grade and distance last time out, finishing fourth, so there's no guesswork involved in assessing him - he simply is what his recent form suggests, a fair but not outstanding A3 performer. Shows fast early pace but fades in the closing stages. Trap 4 has been a middling box in this grade. Solid without being spectacular.
Drops down sharply from a marathon 712 metre trip last time out to this standard 500 metre distance, a big change of gear, though her own distance suitability figure suggests she does have some proven ability at this shorter trip from further back in her form. Trap 5 has been the weakest box in this grade by some distance, which is the biggest knock. Trainer C Weatherall has a useful 22% strike rate. Hard to fully trust given the trip change and the poor draw.
Steps up in both grade and distance tonight after racing at B3 level over 460 metres, a tougher ask on paper than his recent form suggests he's ready for. Shows fast early pace and the best recorded time in the field, which at least gives him a puncher's chance from the traps. His suitability figures away from raw speed are weak across the board. Trainer J J Gornall also saddles Blitz Hurricane in this field.
Key insight: Trap 1 has been the clear standout box in this grade, winning nearly 26% from 190 runs, and the composite top pick also performs reasonably here at 22.1% - this is a grade where the model can be trusted more than most.
T1:25.8% T2:21.3% T3:19.0% T4:17.4% T5:13.7% T6:16.7%
1,130 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1As Happy As Bryn | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Fabulous Masie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Fabulous Livia | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Last Moon | 43 | 66 | Closer |
4Blitz Hurricane | 100 | 0 | Fader |
5Frankton Daisy | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Jaz Style | 100 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 270m | 460m | 500m | 712m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | As Happy As Bryn | 0.627 | 0.600 | 0.596 | — |
| 2 | Fabulous Livia | 0.593 | — | 0.590 | — |
| 3 | Last Moon | 0.590 | — | 0.590 | — |
| 4 | Blitz Hurricane | — | 0.594 | 0.595 | — |
| 5 | Frankton Daisy | — | — | 0.596 | 0.620 |
| 6 | Jaz Style | — | 0.598 | 0.596 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.