| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Shannas Coved 3y 5 | R Taberner — 20% R722 W142 P418 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 100 | 100 | 99 (1) | 44 (4) | 77 (2) | 68 (5) | 76 (4) | 82 (3) | 79 (3) | 64 (4) | 16 (5) | 49 (3) | 50 | 37 | - | - | 53 | 50 | 2 | 5/2F | |
| 2 | ▶ Sugar Roseb 3y 8 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R609 W113 P343 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 29 | 17 | 49 (3) | 93 (1) | 77 (3) | 57 (5) | 61 (6) | 54 (3) | 59 (2) | 44 (5) | 58 (2) | 61 (3) | 40 | 27 | - | - | 58 | 49 | 6 | 8/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Longacres Smokeb 2y 37 | P J Doocey — 21% R140 W29 P76 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 28 | 75 (4) | 55 (3) | 81 (3) | 73 (3) | 86 (1) | 76 (4) | 49 (3) | 80 (4) | 51 (4) | 60 (3) | 28 | 37 | - | 10 | 70 | 54 | 4 | 7/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Finborough Flyerd 4y 55 | N J Hunt — 19% R372 W72 P205 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 71 | 56 (4) | 76 (4) | 58 (3) | 67 (5) | 82 (2) | 90 (4) | 66 (2) | 53 (3) | 100 (4) | - | 31 | 26 | 30 | 31 | 71 | 56 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Aero Ellab 3y 56 | R Taberner — 20% R722 W142 P418 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 67 | 57 (3) | 60 (5) | 63 (1) | 38 (6) | 46 (5) | 52 (6) | 69 (5) | 77 (3) | 58 (3) | 98 (1) | 27 | 34 | 68 | 45 | 78 | 63 | 1 | 3/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Drumdoit Murphyd 3y 16 | J B Thompson — 19% R518 W97 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 14 | 43 (4) | 86 (2) | 87 (2) | 58 (1) | 80 (4) | 87 (2) | 97 (1) | 70 (4) | 76 (5) | 47 (2) | 39 | 35 | 35 | 39 | 70 | 59 | 5 | 7/2 | |
Aero Ella is the class act with avgP 78 — 7-8 points clear of the next best (Finborough Flyer at 71 and Smoke/Murphy at 70). Form of 98→66→74→83→71 is outstanding consistency at a high level, and that 98 is an elite peak. She won S2 from T5 in 38.82 last time — exactly this grade, this trap, this distance. That's the single most relevant form line in the race. She's a pure Closer (CS 100, EP 0) which at 630m is the ideal profile — closers thrive at staying trips where the front runners inevitably tire, and with three Faders in this race, the early pace will be fierce. She'll be last through the first two bends but will be closing relentlessly through the final stages. Speed 52 and bend 67 are both strong — the bend rating means she navigates the multiple turns efficiently while gaining ground. Distance suit 45 is the best in the field — she has proven 630m form. Trainer Taberner at 24% specifically at 36.36% from 11 S2 runs is the elite handler signal. T5 wins 18.75% from 32 runs — a small sample that sits near expected. Class suit 68 is the highest in the field, confirming she belongs at this level. The convergence is overwhelming: best avgP by 7+, S2 win from T5 last time, Closer profile in a race with three Faders, elite trainer record.
DANGER: Second-best avgP (71), best bend (71), and the structurally strong T4 draw (23.4%). The 90 most recent perf shows peak form. Yes, he's a Fader at 630m — but with two other Faders setting the pace from T1 and T2, he might sit third early and benefit from a modest fade rather than a catastrophic one. The upset threat.
First time at 630m as a Fader with zero distance experience. Will lead early but certain to weaken. The staying trip will find her out. An experiment, not a contender.
Stepping up from A6 480m to S2 630m — too big a jump on both class and distance. Fader profile at a staying trip with zero distance experience. Will fade.
Strong form (76→55→81→73→86) and an S2 3rd at 38.26, but the dead T3 draw (13.04%) and poor bend rating (28) create a structural barrier. Doocey's placement skill is the saving grace but the data says T3 is the worst draw at this trip.
Best trap structurally (T6 at 26.53%) with two S2 2nds, but 8 points below Aero Ella on avgP and the worst bend rating in the field (14). His pattern is clear — runs well from T6 but can't win. Likely 2nd or 3rd again. Running twice tonight adds a fatigue variable.
T6 dominant at 26.53% from 49 runs. T4 strong at 23.4%. T3 is dead at 13.04% from 46 runs. R2 outperforms R1 (26.03% vs 21.57%) — the second-best rated dog wins more often than the favourite. Speed R1 at 19.18% is relatively low while Speed R2 dominates at 29.73% — raw speed isn't the primary factor, pace profile and closing ability matter more. Taberner at 36.36% from 11 runs is the elite handler.
T1:19.3%(57r) T2:22.81%(57r) T3:13.04%(46r) T4:23.4%(47r) T5:18.75%(32r) T6:26.53%(49r)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 630m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Shannas Cove | 100 | 0 | Fader |
2Sugar Rose | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Longacres Smoke | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Finborough Flyer | 100 | 0 | Fader |
5Aero Ella | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Drumdoit Murphy | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.