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PAM'S BIRTHDAY STAKES
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Knockroe Emmab 3y 38 | J B Thompson — 19% R516 W96 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 59 | 32 (6) | 38 (5) | 48 (3) | 55 (4) | 47 (5) | 54 (4) | 69 (1) | 45 (5) | 66 (1) | 44 (6) | 56 | 43 | 37 | 44 | 53 | 51 | 1 | 9/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Anglesey Rebelb 2y 8 | N J Hunt — 20% R364 W71 P201 Trainer form — last 3 months | 87 | 53 | 40 | 67 (1) | 64 (1) | 41 (5) | 55 (3) | 54 (3) | 49 (3) | 52 (4) | 48 (3) | 59 (3) | 40 (6) | 4 | 40 | - | 30 | 48 | 40 | 3 | 11/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Kingoftheroadd 2y 7 | J M Walton — 20% R242 W49 P126 Trainer form — last 3 months | 90 | 46 | 50 | 61 (3) | 79 (1) | 60 (4) | 67 (2) | 61 (4) | 56 (4) | 57 (4) | 78 (1) | 73 (2) | 74 (1) | 35 | 28 | 9 | 28 | 49 | 42 | 5 | 7/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Aero Clipperb 1y 15 | R Taberner — 20% R716 W143 P418 Trainer form — last 3 months | 70 | 55 | 51 | 18 (6) | 51 (4) | 68 (2) | 65 (2) | 74 (1) | 56 (3) | 56 (3) | 52 (5) | 66 (2) | 65 (1) | 23 | 50 | - | 46 | 51 | 47 | 2 | 4/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Citadel Bobd 2y 17 | R Taberner — 20% R716 W143 P418 Trainer form — last 3 months | 67 | 48 | 53 | 34 (6) | 70 (1) | 37 (6) | 52 (4) | 64 (1) | 46 (5) | 52 (3) | 57 (3) | 47 (4) | 48 (5) | 30 | 38 | 27 | 36 | 49 | 44 | 4 | 15/8F | |
| 6 | ▶ Drumdoit Murphyd 3yN/R 26 | J B Thompson — 19% R516 W96 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | 81 | 43 | 37 | 43 (4) | 86 (2) | 87 (2) | 58 (1) | 80 (4) | 87 (2) | 97 (1) | 70 (4) | 76 (5) | 47 (2) | 39 | 50 | 16 | 33 | 70 | 60 | - | - | |
Drumdoit Murphy is the overwhelming class act in this field with avgP 70 — a staggering 17 points above the next best runner (Knockroe Emma at 53). This is a massive class override situation. His form reads 90→46→87→45→99, which is wildly inconsistent but critically shows that when he's on, he's operating at a completely different level to this A6 field. The 90, 87, and 99 performances are elite — far beyond anything these rivals have produced. His recent racing has been at 630m S2 where he placed 2nd twice (38.86 and 38.37), proving he's competitive at a much higher level. The drop to A6 480m is an enormous class relief. He's a pure Closer (EP 0, CS 100) which at Monmore 480m — the fair track with the long run to the bend — is viable, especially when the class gap is this large. From T6, which wins 20.92% from 239 runs (above expected), he'll be last early but his closing burst should overhaul dogs rated 17+ points below him. Trainer Thompson at 28% handles him well and places him deliberately. The risk is the 46 and 45 performances — when he switches off, he's mediocre. But even his bad days (45-46) are competitive with this field's best. Track suit 50 and distance suit 33 suggest he's more of a 630m dog, but the class gap compensates.
DANGER: Best trap (T1 at 23.18%), best speed (62), best EP (57) in the field. Won at A7 from T1 in 28.77. The Fader tag (CS 37) is the risk but she fades gradually, not catastrophically. If Murphy can't close from T6, she holds.
Two A6 3rds show he belongs at the grade but can't win. Trap suit 4 from T2 is damning. Outclassed by Murphy and out-paced by Knockroe Emma. Mid-pack finisher.
Wildly inconsistent form with a 30.61 from this exact trap and grade. Even the best recent perf (63) is well below Murphy's level. An unreliable runner who could finish anywhere from 3rd to 6th.
Two consecutive wins stepping up (A8→A7) with Taberner's elite A6 handler record. But the 24 and 27 perf ratings and the A7→A6 step make this speculative. Could surprise with Taberner's placement but needs to prove A6 ability.
Dead T5 draw, declining form, and a beaten favourite tag from this exact combination. Running twice tonight suggests connections are unsure. Hard to back with confidence.
T1 slightly dominant at 23.18% from 289 runs. Relatively flat bias overall. Composite R1 wins 22.36% — decent separation. Trainer Thompson at 28% is notable (two runners here: Knockroe Emma T1 and Drumdoit Murphy T6). Taberner at 35.29% from 34 A6 runs is the elite handler.
T1:23.18%(289r) T2:21.18%(288r) T3:17.91%(268r) T4:19.39%(263r) T5:16.44%(219r) T6:20.92%(239r)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Knockroe Emma | 57 | 37 | Fader |
2Anglesey Rebel | 42 | 74 | Closer |
3Kingoftheroad | 52 | 40 | All-Rounder |
4Aero Clipper | 48 | 60 | Closer |
5Citadel Bob | 52 | 39 | All-Rounder |
6Drumdoit Murphy | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.