| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Westway Bacchusd 2y 28 | J B Thompson — 19% R518 W97 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 50 | 53 (4) | 74 (1) | 53 (3) | 65 (2) | 31 (2) | 55 (4) | 59 (3) | 55 (3) | 73 (1) | 59 (3) | 44 | 41 | 39 | 31 | 52 | 47 | 4 | 9/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Aero Bertied 3y 17 | G A Griffiths — 20% R163 W32 P79 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 58 | 51 (5) | 48 (5) | 44 (5) | 51 (4) | 73 (5) | 48 (1) | 28 (5) | 22 (3) | 21 (6) | - | 43 | 50 | 27 | 36 | 41 | 42 | 2 | 18/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Coppice Tatianab 3y 33 | N J Hunt — 19% R372 W72 P205 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 47 | 41 (5) | 40 (5) | 40 (5) | 49 (4) | 58 (3) | 44 (5) | 29 (3) | 29 (3) | 32 (3) | 24 (6) | 47 | 51 | 31 | 45 | 39 | 42 | 5 | 9/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Thats Us Nowd 2y 29 | N J Hunt — 19% R372 W72 P205 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 27 | 100 (1) | 100 (1) | 100 (1) | 74 (4) | 76 (3) | 78 (1) | 59 (2) | 62 (2) | 51 (4) | 69 (2) | 71 | 71 | 51 | 58 | 61 | 63 | 1 | 6/5F | |
| 6 | ▶ Aero Fumib 2y 19 | R Taberner — 20% R722 W142 P418 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 55 | 82 (1) | 76 (2) | 44 (6) | 43 (1) | 56 (6) | 53 (5) | 66 (5) | 74 (6) | - | - | 21 | 34 | 15 | 34 | 55 | 46 | 3 | 7/4 | |
Thats Us Now is the class of this field with avgP 61 — 6 points clear of the next best (Aero Fumi at 55). That's a genuine class gap that triggers the override consideration, especially in a low-separation grade where R3 wins 22.55%. She's a pure Closer (EP 11, CS 100) which at Monmore 480m — a fair track with a long run to the first bend — is a viable profile. Recent form is strong: A5 T5 2nd (28.87), A5 T6 2nd (28.65), trial T6 1st (29.28). Those 28.87 and 28.65 times are excellent for A5 and the consecutive 2nds from wide draws show she can close from behind even when drawn outside. Track suit 71, distance suit 58, trap suit 71 are all the highest in the field — she has deep Monmore equity at this trip and from this draw. The concern is EP 11 and the fact that she'll be last early, relying on the two Faders (Bacchus and Bertie) to weaken ahead. But at Monmore 480m this happens more often than not, and her 28.65 time shows she has the raw speed to get there. Trainer Hunt at 14% is weak — the one negative — but the dog's individual quality overrides. In a LOW SEPARATION grade where ratings don't reliably predict, her 6-point class edge AND the highest suitability scores AND proven CD form is the strongest convergence of signals.
DANGER: Best trap (T1 at 22.14%), class drop from A4 with competitive recent runs, and best trainer (Thompson 28%). The Fader profile at 480m is the main risk but CS 32 means a gradual fade. In a low-separation grade, the structural advantages make him a serious threat.
Collapsing form (three sub-25 perfs) and coming from 264m sprints to 480m. Speed 55 flatters — it's sprint-derived. Will push early but likely to weaken badly over the longer trip. Hard to make a case.
Dead T3 draw, collapsed form, and weakest trainer in the field. The early A4 promise has evaporated. Would need a major revival to feature. Can be opposed.
Second-best avgP (55) and decent T6 structural position, but the one A5 T6 run was a 6th as beaten favourite. Inconsistent form (43-69 range) and low trap suit (21) make her unreliable. Has the ability but not the reliability.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 wins just 17.38% while R3 wins 22.55% — the third-best dog wins more often than the favourite at A5. This is a grade where upsets are common and ratings offer minimal predictive value. T1 and T6 are the best traps. T3 is dead at 14.84% from 283 runs. Trainers Griffiths (40%) and Doocey (37.5%) dominate but from small samples.
T1:22.14%(262r) T2:17.34%(248r) T3:14.84%(283r) T4:18.07%(238r) T5:16.94%(183r) T6:21.62%(222r)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Westway Bacchus | 61 | 32 | Fader |
2Aero Bertie | 61 | 39 | Fader |
3Coppice Tatiana | 50 | 59 | Closer |
5Thats Us Now | 11 | 100 | Closer |
6Aero Fumi | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.