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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Westway Machod 2y 8 | J B Thompson — 19% R516 W96 P283 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 42 | 88 (1) | 77 (2) | 88 (1) | 71 (3) | 78 (2) | 46 (6) | 84 (1) | 78 (1) | 74 (1) | 51 (4) | 78 | 77 | - | 60 | 67 | 69 | 6 | 7/4F | |
| 2 | ▶ Bridefort Ladyb 3y 25 | N J Hunt — 20% R364 W71 P201 Trainer form — last 3 months | 78 | 54 | 62 | 80 (4) | 70 (4) | 64 (6) | 84 (2) | 52 (6) | 68 (4) | 75 (2) | 57 (5) | 66 (4) | 55 (5) | 27 | 51 | 37 | 40 | 64 | 55 | 2 | 4/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Beatties Casinod 2y 29 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R598 W112 P338 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 48 | 99 (1) | 75 (1) | 70 (2) | 67 (2) | 69 (3) | 68 (3) | 86 (5) | 87 (3) | 81 (2) | - | 61 | 54 | 54 | 64 | 73 | 68 | 1 | 13/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Longacres Diddyd 2y 5 | P J Doocey — 19% R134 W26 P70 Trainer form — last 3 months | 65 | 45 | 47 | 49 (4) | 62 (4) | 62 (3) | 59 (5) | 63 (3) | 64 (4) | 69 (2) | 62 (4) | 82 (1) | 78 (1) | 31 | 56 | - | 54 | 64 | 58 | 5 | 6/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Droopys Jotb 1y 25 | G A Griffiths — 20% R163 W32 P79 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 46 | 51 (5) | 57 (4) | 58 (5) | 64 (4) | 54 (6) | 58 (6) | 86 (1) | 63 (4) | 82 (1) | 65 (3) | 64 | 61 | 25 | 51 | 67 | 64 | 3 | 9/2 | |
| 6 | ▶ Definitely Goned 2y 27 | A K Jenkins — 16% R192 W31 P103 Trainer form — last 3 months | 74 | 51 | 53 | 55 (3) | 74 (5) | 54 (5) | 51 (5) | 49 (5) | 58 (4) | 85 (1) | 52 (6) | 82 (1) | 52 (5) | 47 | 48 | 18 | 45 | 66 | 59 | 4 | 3/1 | |
Definitely Gone has the structural advantage of the DOMINANT T6 draw, which wins 30.56% from 72 runs — nearly double the expected 16.7% rate. This is the standout signal in the race. His recent form is erratic (85→52→82→52→48) but critically includes two wins from T6 at this venue: A2 win in 28.85 and A3 win in 28.73. That A2 win from T6 is exactly the form line this race needs — he's proven he can win at this grade from this draw at this track. All-Rounder profile (EP 51, CS 50, PCon 65) means he won't need to close from last — he'll be tracking the Fader Longacres Diddy and positioned to strike when Diddy fades through the third and fourth bends. Speed 51 and bend 53 are mid-field but adequate from the widest draw where there's space to run. Trainer A K Jenkins at 22% is moderate. The concern is the inconsistency — those 52 and 48 performances are weak — but when he's on (85, 82), he's comfortably the best dog in this race. The convergence of dominant trap + proven form from that trap at this grade + adequate pace profile makes this the pick despite the form inconsistency.
DANGER: Highest-rated dog at avgP 73, 6 points clear of the field. Strong recent 480m form (81, 77 perfs). Closer profile works at Monmore. If Longacres Diddy fades as expected, she's the likeliest beneficiary. Held back from PICK by the dominant T6 draw.
Strong individual Monmore form but the A2 class step and dead T1 draw (14.68%) make him hard to pick. Needs the class to be weaker than the grade suggests. Mid-field finisher.
Class dropper from A1 but with poor recent form and no early pace. T2 is structurally decent but she hasn't shown she can use it. Needs a lot to go right.
Will lead but will fade. EP 90 guarantees the front but CS 0 and volatile form (40, 46 recent) mean the better closers will catch him. Doocey is the saving grace but not enough at A2.
Consistent pace profile but the dead T5 draw (13.11%) and deeply volatile form make him hard to back. The two A1 collapses suggest he's at his ceiling at A2.
T6 is overwhelmingly dominant at 30.56% from 72 runs — nearly double expected rate. R2 actually outperforms R1 (22.54% vs 20%), suggesting upsets are common at A2. T2 is the second-best trap at 22.48%. T1 and T5 are structurally disadvantaged.
T1:14.68%(109r) T2:22.48%(129r) T3:20.37%(108r) T4:15.56%(90r) T5:13.11%(61r) T6:30.56%(72r)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Westway Macho | 49 | 43 | All-Rounder |
2Bridefort Lady | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Beatties Casino | 0 | 60 | Closer |
4Longacres Diddy | 90 | 0 | Fader |
5Droopys Jot | 54 | 50 | All-Rounder |
6Definitely Gone | 51 | 50 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.