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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Salacres Merkelb 3y 5 | P H Harnden — 18% R396 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 47 | 43 (5) | 62 (2) | 31 (3) | 53 (4) | 73 (1) | 60 (2) | 57 (4) | 71 (1) | 57 (3) | 47 (5) | 45 | 36 | 31 | 43 | 63 | 55 | 1 | 7/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Temporary Fixd 2y 25 | S J Rayner — 18% R179 W33 P103 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 53 | 52 (2) | 59 (1) | 46 (2) | 26 (5) | 21 (6) | 40 (5) | 63 (2) | 68 (2) | 58 (4) | 55 (4) | 38 | 44 | 44 | 38 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Raparee Yuliab 2y 19 | D D Porter — 17% R522 W90 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 66 | 66 (3) | 81 (2) | 81 (1) | 71 (3) | 68 (2) | 64 (2) | 63 (3) | 83 (1) | 81 (1) | 77 (1) | 37 | 45 | 46 | 45 | 59 | 53 | 4 | 2/1F | |
| 4 | ▶ Fabulous Rakiyab 2y 36 | L G Tuffin — 25% R275 W69 P144 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 40 | 68 (5) | 75 (3) | 88 (2) | 67 (3) | 56 (5) | 80 (1) | 61 (2) | 56 (4) | 65 (4) | 54 (5) | - | 40 | - | 34 | 62 | 53 | 5 | 11/4 | |
| 5 | ▶ Amka Jaxd 2y 6 | D Jeans — 13% R243 W31 P110 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 49 | 60 (2) | 44 (5) | 64 (2) | 43 (5) | 62 (2) | 48 (4) | 40 (6) | 46 (6) | 64 (2) | 65 (2) | 25 | 56 | 14 | 56 | 62 | 56 | 3 | 9/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Wellstreet Cathb 3y 38 | K J Crocker — 16% R143 W23 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 55 | 49 (5) | 79 (1) | 85 (2) | 55 (3) | 98 (1) | 59 (4) | 68 (3) | 63 (2) | 52 (5) | 58 (4) | 40 | 34 | 28 | 27 | 63 | 53 | 2 | 11/4 | |
The standout selection to close the card. P63 is joint-best, and the form is the most impressive in this field: 73, 59, 55, 71, 72 — three of the last five runs above 71, and the latest at 73 is the best current perf of any runner in this race. A Closer (CS 66, pC 75) from T1 at Towcester 500m — the track profile confirms this is the ideal combination, with Closers from inside draws (T1-T3) favoured and the rail saving ground through every bend. T1 wins 23.25% from 228 runs at A4 500m — joint-best trap. Trap suitability 45 is the field's best. Distance suitability 43 is also the field's best. Trainer P H Harnden at 22% is moderate-plus. The race shape with two Faders setting genuine early pace (Raparee Yulia and Amka Jax) creates the closing scenario that Merkel thrives in. The CS 66 ensures she finishes strongly, and the rail geometry means she loses less ground than wider-drawn Closers. The form consistency is the decisive factor — running to 71+ in three of five runs is elite at A4 level.
DANGER: The 87 peak and CS 100 make her the most explosive finisher in this race — possibly the most explosive finisher on the entire card. But Closer from T6 at Towcester 500m is a fundamental structural mismatch. If she fires to her 87 level, she wins from any draw. The danger reflects the ceiling rather than the probability.
Most consistent form (54-66 range) and best condition suitability across track and class, but CS 23 means he cannot finish strongly at a distance where Closers dominate. Will hold a position mid-race but likely to be caught in the closing stages by the genuine Closers.
Best bend rating (66) and improving form (69, 65 latest) but the Fader profile (CS 38) at 500m means she will lead and weaken. Strong suitability suggests she belongs at this level but the pace profile is wrong for a staying finish. Pace-maker for the race.
Best trap percentage (23.53%) and outstanding pace consistency (87) with Tuffin trainer signal, but 48 latest and zero trap and class suitability undermine the structural case. The Closer profile from T4 is less advantaged than T1 Closers at Towcester 500m.
Outstanding venue suitability (track and distance both 56) and best EP (65) but CS 11 at 500m is the lowest in the field and will produce a dramatic fade from bend 3. His role is pace-maker — he sets the race up for the Closers and then weakens.
T1 and T4 lead at 23.25% and 23.53% from 228 and 238 runs respectively — near-identical top-trap advantage. T5 and T6 penalised at 15-16%. R1 composite at 23.58% but R2 drops sharply to 15.01% — the favourite has a clear edge but the second-favourite rarely wins, making this a race where the top-rated runner carries significant value.
T1:23.25% T2:19.43% T3:17.82% T4:23.53% T5:15.42% T6:16.2%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Salacres Merkel | 47 | 66 | Closer |
2Temporary Fix | 53 | 23 | All-Rounder |
3Raparee Yulia | 55 | 38 | Fader |
4Fabulous Rakiya | 46 | 62 | Closer |
5Amka Jax | 65 | 11 | Fader |
6Wellstreet Cath | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.