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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Slippy Maudb 2y 12 | J M Liles — 19% R425 W79 P223 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 20 (6) | 25 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 22 | - | 17 | 53 | 41 | 6 | 11/4JF | |
| 2 | ▶ Hitthelids Mateod 2y 210 | N J Deas — 17% R449 W76 P247 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 58 (1) | 30 (5) | 47 (3) | 55 (5) | 36 (1) | 25 (4) | 25 (5) | 23 (5) | 36 (1) | 29 (3) | 27 | 38 | 23 | 38 | 56 | 48 | 1 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Brinkleys Lilab 2y 6 | V A Lea — 15% R191 W29 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 24 (2) | 23 (4) | 21 (4) | 19 (5) | 20 (5) | 28 (3) | 25 (5) | 25 (3) | 30 (2) | 23 (5) | 26 | 37 | 51 | 35 | 55 | 47 | 2 | 5/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Salacres Annb 3y 16 | P H Harnden — 18% R396 W71 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 20 (5) | 25 (3) | 19 (5) | 22 (4) | 20 (4) | 19 (6) | 26 (3) | 32 (1) | 22 (4) | 21 (5) | 30 | 32 | 28 | 32 | 51 | 44 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Unknown Allieb 1y 5 | D D Porter — 17% R523 W90 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 33 (4) | 37 (3) | 42 (1) | 28 (5) | 31 (4) | 29 (6) | 42 (1) | 28 (4) | 31 (3) | 29 (4) | - | 23 | - | 23 | 57 | 45 | 3 | 11/4JF | |
| 6 | ▶ Bay City Indyb 3y 27 | D D Porter — 17% R523 W90 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 9 (6) | 22 (3) | 28 (2) | 25 (3) | 24 (4) | 24 (4) | 24 (3) | 27 (3) | 24 (3) | 23 (5) | 21 | 17 | - | 17 | 55 | 42 | 5 | 7/2 | |
The best structural package in this race. P56 is the joint-best, speed 55 is the field's best, and he sits in the statistically best trap — T2 wins 23.38% from 385 runs at D3 270m. Track suitability 38 and distance suitability 38 are both the field's best, and class suitability 23 is respectable. Form of 50, 63, 52, 57, 43 is inconsistent with a 63 peak and a 43 low, and the latest 50 is mid-range — not inspiring but not alarming either. Trainer N J Deas at 16% is moderate. No pace data means the sprint dynamics are unknown, but speed 55 at 270m should translate to competitive positioning regardless of break quality. The combination of best speed, best trap, and best suitability creates a structural advantage that the competition's inconsistent form cannot reliably overcome. The pick is process-driven rather than form-driven — in a field where everyone is inconsistent, the runner with the best structural factors gets the nod.
DANGER: Class dropper with highest class suit (51) and a 76 peak that is the best single perf in this race. But the 43 latest and 40 three runs back show she is deeply inconsistent. If the class version turns up, she wins. The danger label reflects the upside ceiling rather than current form reliability.
Liles trainer signal and T1 draw provide a structural floor but 36 latest, zero trap and class suitability, and 41-point form collapse from the 77 peak make her the hardest runner to trust here.
Best trainer (Harnden 24%) and most consistent form but a declining trajectory (54 to 42) and no perf above 54 in five runs. The reliable floor makes her a place contender but the ceiling is too low for the win.
The P57 average flatters — current form of 38 latest is the field's worst and the trajectory from 76 to 62 to 38 is a sharp decline. Worst trap draw (13.95%) and zero suitability across trap and class. Impossible to support on current direction.
Will lead by daylight with EP 100 but worst trap (13.81%), CS 0, declining form (80 to 49), and weak suitability across every dimension. The 270m trip might help a Fader hold but the condition data and suitability strongly oppose. More likely to lead and be caught than to lead and hold.
T2 is the best trap at 23.38% from 385 runs. T5 and T6 heavily penalised — just 13.95% and 13.81%. Top trainer J M Liles wins 21.31% from 61 runs at this condition. Composite ranks are fairly flat (R1-R3 all 18-22%) suggesting competitive D3 racing with no overwhelming favourite advantage.
T1:21.95% T2:23.38% T3:21.8% T4:20.46% T5:13.95% T6:13.81%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.