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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Great Nightd 1y 4 | James O'Regan — 26% R23 W6 P13 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 63 | - | 53 (4) | 60 (2) | 44 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 20 | 15 | - | - | 53 | 50 | 1 | 1/f | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Quiet Corbettd 1y 1 | - | - | - | - | 41 (6) | 49 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 20 | 15 | - | 14 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 6/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Mystic Echod 1y 24 | - | - | 45 | - | 53 (3) | 52 (2) | 38 (4) | 47 (3) | 32 (6) | 47 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | 11 | 46 | 30 | 3 | 6/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Leaha Viewb 2y 1 | - | - | - | - | 39 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 39 | 33 | 6 | 6/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Stormy Baled 2y 34 | - | - | 55 | - | 59 (4) | 54 (5) | 59 (4) | 75 (1) | 70 (2) | 53 (4) | 63 (2) | 60 (3) | 56 (3) | 43 (5) | 12 | 20 | - | - | 60 | 31 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Tan Hill Kingd 2y 34 | - | - | 16 | - | 38 (4) | 37 (5) | 38 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 38 | 13 | 4 | 7/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Great Night | 29.53 | 29.53 | 29.53 | 63 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 2 | Quiet Corbett | — | — | — | — | — | Big class jump | |
| 3 | Mystic Echo | 29.80 | 29.99 | 29.84 | 45 | +0.04 | Best trap | |
| 4 | Leaha View | — | — | — | — | — | Big class jump | |
| 5 | Stormy Bale | 29.64 | 29.80 | 29.64 | 55 | 0.00 | Best average rating | |
| 6 | Tan Hill King | 30.38 | 30.47 | 30.56 | 16 | +0.18 | Stepping up in grade |
A big sample at this grade and trip throws up a genuine surprise: the model's own top-rated dog actually wins LESS often than the second and third-rated dogs here, so the raw rating is not to be trusted blindly tonight. What does work is speed — the fastest dog in the field wins close to a quarter of the time, streets ahead of every other single factor. Great Night owns that speed edge by some distance and races for a trainer with a strong overall strike rate. Trap 3 has been the best-performing box in the sample, occupied tonight by a grade-rising Mystic Echo, while trap 4 is nearly as good and falls to a big class-jumping newcomer in Leaha View — both structural pluses on paper for dogs short on raw ability. Stormy Bale carries the best average rating in the race and will look to be involved throughout.
Owns the fastest recorded speed rating in this field by a clear margin, and races for James O'Regan, whose 29% strike rate is a genuine positive. He was blocked at the first bend last time out and still only lost fourth by a length or so, which reads better than the bare result suggests. Trap 1 is only a middling box at this grade and trip, but at a combination where raw speed has proven far more reliable than the model's own rating, his clock time is the standout factor.
Carries the highest average rating in the field, built on solid if unspectacular efforts at this grade mixed with some sharper runs at the shorter sprint trip, including a win in April. Been doing plenty early in recent starts but weakening late rather than finishing it out. Trap 5 is one of the weaker boxes in the sample studied, which is the main knock against her.
Stepping up sharply from ON2 grade into this considerably tougher company, and neither of his two starts to date offers anything to suggest he's ready for the jump. Trap 2 has been the weakest box in the sample studied for this grade and trip, adding to the case against him.
Moves up from the easier A7 and A8 grades, where he's shown modest but honest form, including a third last time out despite being crowded at the fourth bend. Trap 3 has been the best-performing box in the sample studied for this grade and trip, giving him a structural plus, but his ability on the clock is some way behind the pace-setters here.
A significant step up from a single run at ON2 grade, and there's essentially nothing to judge her against tonight's rivals on. Trap 4 has been a productive box in the sample studied for this grade and trip, which offers some structural encouragement, but the class jump is a real question mark.
Steps up from the easier A8 grade off modest form there, and his recorded times are comfortably the slowest in this field. Nothing in the recent record suggests he's ready to compete at this level.
Key insight: 1,106 runs at this grade and trip. Unusually, the model's top-rated dog wins less often (13.48%) than both the second (16.67%) and third-rated dogs (19.1%) — a genuine weak spot for the raw rating here. The fastest dog in the field, by contrast, wins 23.57% of the time, the strongest single signal at this combination by a distance.
T1:14.13% T2:11.56% T3:17.3% T4:16.76% T5:12.11% T6:11.64%
1,106 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Great Night | 0.555 | 0.562 |
| 2 | Quiet Corbett | — | 0.563 |
| 3 | Mystic Echo | — | 0.573 |
| 4 | Leaha View | — | 0.578 |
| 5 | Stormy Bale | 0.560 | 0.568 |
| 6 | Tan Hill King | — | 0.578 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.