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Connect 6 Jackpot Leg 4 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Mexican Blaked 5y 32 | - | - | 32 | - | 35 (6) | 56 (6) | 38 (5) | 89 (6) | 79 (1) | 65 (2) | 85 (3) | 49 (1) | 68 (5) | - | 1 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 59 | 18 | 6 | 5/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Fire Height Drewb 1y 33 | Brian O'Sullivan — 0% R5 W0 P3 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 63 (4) | 61 (5) | 59 (4) | 73 (2) | 76 (2) | 73 (2) | 70 (2) | 72 (2) | 62 (4) | 53 (4) | 39 | 42 | 6 | 33 | 66 | 32 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Sets Inthe Cityb 1y 31 | Michael Daly — 14% R7 W1 P3 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 53 (6) | 57 (4) | 75 (3) | 61 (4) | 56 (4) | 48 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 59 | 30 | 4 | 1/1f | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Fishing Timingb 1y 33 | - | - | 59 | - | 44 (6) | 71 (3) | 50 (2) | 66 (1) | 65 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 58 | 23 | 3 | 2/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Cancateatoatsb 2y 43 | - | - | 48 | - | 52 (5) | 80 (2) | 69 (4) | 58 (5) | 72 (3) | 34 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | 11 | 10 | - | 62 | 28 | 5 | 2/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Blue Elvisd 3y 35 | - | - | 44 | - | 57 (6) | 56 (5) | 49 (5) | 90 (1) | 52 (6) | 85 (1) | 77 (2) | 55 (5) | 78 (3) | 80 (1) | 39 | 44 | 23 | 29 | 65 | 26 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexican Blake | 29.10 | 29.59 | 30.50 | 32 | +1.40 | Well off best LTO | |
| 2 | Fire Height Drew | 29.17 | 29.43 | 29.50 | 48 | +0.33 | Best average rating | |
| 3 | Sets Inthe City | 29.06 | 29.26 | 29.35 | 56 | +0.29 | Best trap | |
| 4 | Fishing Timing | 29.17 | 29.17 | 29.17 | 59 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 5 | Cancateatoats | 29.36 | 29.42 | 29.36 | 48 | 0.00 | Recent form at 500m | |
| 6 | Blue Elvis | 29.03 | 29.44 | 29.93 | 44 | +0.90 | Fastest ever, but flat lately |
A big, reliable sample at this grade and trip shows trap 3 as the best-performing box at 16.76% and trap 1 the weakest at 10.99%, but the standout factor here is that the fastest dog in the field on raw speed wins nearly twice as often as the fastest dog does at most other combinations studied — speed rating matters more than the composite score at this level. Fishing Timing owns that speed edge and has been racing to a remarkably consistent clock, finishing with two wins on the spin before an unrelated blip over a completely different trip. Fire Height Drew carries the best average rating in the race but keeps finding one too good, with five straight runs in the frame without winning. Blue Elvis has the fastest raw time ever recorded among this six and a big win in him, but his last two starts have been well below that level.
The fastest dog in the field on recorded speed, and remarkably consistent with it — every one of her last four runs over this trip has been clocked within three-tenths of a second of the others. Two wins on the bounce feature in that sequence before an unrelated run over a much longer trip that shouldn't be held against her. At this grade and trip, the fastest dog in the field has historically won more often than the model's own top-rated pick, and trap 4 is a solidly productive box to go with it.
Carries the best average rating in the field and has been the model of consistency, finishing in the frame in five of his last six starts without quite getting his head in front — three seconds and two fourths in that run. Track and distance suitability figures are both the strongest in the race. Trap 2 is only moderate in the sample studied, but on raw quality he's the biggest danger to the selection.
Has shown big form in the past, including a 89-rated effort last September, but his last two runs have both ended in fading finishes and his most recent time was well over a second slower than his career best. Trap 1 has been the weakest box in a large sample at this grade and trip, adding to the case against him tonight.
Consistent on the clock across his last four starts, all within three-tenths of each other, and stayed on having been bumped early last time out. Drawn in trap 3, the strongest-performing box in a large sample at this grade and trip, which adds a genuine structural plus to a workmanlike form line.
Has been racing well over the slightly shorter 500m trip lately, including a strong second, but her true 525m form is a level below the pace-setters here. Reasonable without being spectacular, and trap 5 is only a middling box in the sample studied for this grade and trip.
Has the fastest time ever recorded among this six and produced a big win from the front back in January, so there's a high ceiling here on his day. But his last two starts have both been flat — crowded and never really involved, then never showing at all — and he looks short of the form that won him that race. Suitability figures are strong across the board, so a bounce-back wouldn't be a shock, just not the most likely outcome tonight.
Key insight: Over 1,100 runs at this grade and trip — a large, reliable sample. The fastest dog in the field wins 22.15% of the time, clearly the strongest single signal here, ahead of both the top performance rating (21.39%) and the model's composite score (17.2%). Trap 3 is the best box, trap 1 the weakest, though the gap between traps is modest compared to the speed signal.
T1:10.99% T2:14.69% T3:16.76% T4:15.79% T5:13.27% T6:13.2%
1,127 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 500m | 525m | 750m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexican Blake | 0.569 | — | 0.564 | — |
| 2 | Fire Height Drew | — | — | 0.561 | — |
| 3 | Sets Inthe City | 0.560 | — | 0.560 | — |
| 4 | Fishing Timing | — | — | 0.558 | 0.583 |
| 5 | Cancateatoats | 0.566 | 0.555 | 0.560 | — |
| 6 | Blue Elvis | — | — | 0.561 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.