Loading...
The Slan Abhaile 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Confident Rockd 4y 33 | - | - | 50 | - | 48 (5) | 53 (4) | 44 (5) | 49 (4) | 38 (6) | 52 (5) | 39 (6) | 55 (3) | 40 (6) | 61 (4) | 1 | 11 | 16 | 3 | 48 | 25 | 3 | 6/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Mystic Bellab 4y 33 | - | - | 58 | - | 48 (6) | 53 (4) | 55 (4) | 46 (6) | 55 (4) | 63 (6) | 57 (5) | 63 (2) | - | - | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 53 | 32 | 1 | 5/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Satellite Tangod 7y 43 | - | - | 25 | - | 33 (5) | 46 (2) | 52 (3) | 43 (4) | 57 (3) | 35 (4) | 46 (4) | 54 (3) | 27 (6) | - | 27 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 44 | 12 | 6 | 3/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Walkers Boyd 3y 24 | - | - | 54 | - | 47 (4) | 40 (5) | 41 (6) | 35 (6) | 44 (5) | 38 (5) | 37 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 41 | 21 | 5 | 6/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Broadmill Krisb 2y 25 | - | - | 42 | - | 61 (1) | 45 (2) | 40 (3) | 43 (4) | 36 (6) | 39 (6) | 36 (5) | 49 (5) | 39 (5) | 45 (5) | 9 | 15 | 2 | 27 | 45 | 23 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Rathorpe Ashd 3y 14 | - | - | 56 | - | 42 (5) | 44 (4) | 36 (6) | 42 (6) | 46 (5) | 42 (6) | 38 (6) | 74 (6) | 58 (1) | - | - | 27 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 31 | 2 | 1/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Confident Rock | 29.79 | 30.09 | 30.25 | 50 | +0.46 | Model pick | |
| 2 | Mystic Bella | 29.53 | 29.87 | 30.24 | 58 | +0.71 | Knocked over LTO | |
| 3 | Satellite Tango | 30.05 | 30.51 | 31.07 | 25 | +1.02 | Slowest, off the boil | |
| 4 | Walkers Boy | 29.89 | 30.09 | 29.89 | 54 | 0.00 | Steps up from A8 | |
| 5 | Broadmill Kris | 30.08 | 30.39 | 30.12 | 42 | +0.04 | Won LTO at A8 | |
| 6 | Rathorpe Ash | 29.65 | 30.13 | 29.98 | 56 | +0.33 | Weakest trap |
This grade sits in the toughest patch to call all night — dogs at this level are often in transition, some dropping from harder company, others rising from below, and form here has proven historically unreliable to read. What is clear from the numbers is trap 1's advantage: it wins close to a quarter of the time at this grade and trip, while trap 6 barely wins one in twelve. Confident Rock occupies that prime box and has been holding his own in the tougher A6 grade recently. Mystic Bella has the best raw speed and rating in the race but sits in one of the weaker boxes and was knocked over in her most recent start. Broadmill Kris arrives on the back of a win last time out, albeit at the easier A8 level, and will need to prove that form translates up a grade.
Has been holding his own in the tougher A6 grade in recent starts, which counts as a class edge dropping back to A7 tonight. His speed is respectable rather than outstanding, but he's drawn in trap 1, comfortably the strongest box in the sample studied at this grade and trip — a huge structural plus at a level where the raw ratings have proven unreliable.
Owns the fastest recorded time and the highest speed rating in this field, and her average rating is also the best on show. Her last outing ended prematurely after being knocked over, so there's no true reflection of current form from that run, but the underlying figures are strong. Trap 2 has been one of the weaker boxes in the sample studied, which is the main knock against her.
Recent times have slipped notably, with his last run comfortably his slowest of the six shown here after being crowded early. There's been some encouraging placed form in the past, including a second at the easier A8 grade, but the current trend on the clock is firmly the wrong way.
Steps up from the easier A8 grade, where his form was modest at best, rarely threatening the front of the field. A reasonable enough time on the clock, but nothing in his recent record suggests he's ready to trouble the principals at this level.
Won last time out, but that was at the easier A8 grade, and his times remain the slowest of this six even in victory. Stepping up to A7 tonight is a fair test of whether that improvement holds at a tougher level.
Has a fair recent time on the clock and has been racing consistently at this level and above, but tends to do plenty early before fading in the closing stages. Trap 6 has been the weakest box in the sample studied at this grade and trip, which compounds the concern about holding on late.
Key insight: 545 runs at this grade and trip. Trap 1 is a clear structural edge at 23.71%, trap 6 close to a dead box at 8.79%. The model's own top-rated dog only wins 17.17% here, actually behind the third-rated dog, so this remains a grade where the raw rating alone shouldn't be trusted.
T1:23.71% T2:10.11% T3:13.48% T4:15.91% T5:18.68% T6:8.79%
545 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.