| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Carpe Diemd 2y 17 | E T Parker — 23% R173 W39 P102 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 18 | 28 | 56 (3) | 37 (5) | 51 (4) | 69 (1) | 41 (5) | 70 (1) | 56 (4) | 33 (6) | 32 (6) | 45 (4) | 46 | 21 | - | 24 | 50 | 31 | 3 | 10/3 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Wholovesyed 4y 26 | D L Fretwell — 14% R160 W23 P95 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 43 | 43 (4) | 59 (2) | 51 (2) | 48 (5) | 61 (2) | 55 (6) | 54 (3) | 62 (5) | 49 (2) | - | 20 | 29 | - | 30 | 55 | 42 | 5 | 6/4F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Slippy Shaned 3y 22 | M A P O'donnell — 16% R262 W43 P145 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 28 | 50 | 40 (5) | 33 (5) | 40 (5) | 56 (2) | 61 (3) | 49 (4) | 72 (1) | 28 (3) | 27 (3) | 56 (3) | 1 | 35 | - | 24 | 47 | 30 | 4 | 25/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Diamond Santad 2y 6 | L A Taylorson — 16% R263 W41 P148 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 64 | 53 (5) | 58 (2) | 51 (4) | 54 (4) | 46 (5) | 60 (3) | 69 (2) | 60 (4) | 63 (2) | 75 (1) | - | 35 | - | 23 | 57 | 48 | 2 | 2/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Vale Speedyd 3y 7 | D L Fretwell — 14% R160 W23 P95 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 78 | 78 | 65 (3) | 63 (2) | 63 (4) | 55 (3) | 79 (2) | 68 (2) | 39 (3) | 53 (5) | 63 (3) | 66 (3) | 13 | 38 | - | 33 | 62 | 62 | 1 | 10/3 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Vale Speedy | 29.25 | 29.52 | 29.62 | 78 | +0.37 | Model pick | |
| 5 | Diamond Santa | 29.74 | 30.04 | 30.09 | 53 | +0.35 | ||
| 2 | Wholovesye | 29.87 | 30.10 | 30.07 | 50 | +0.20 | 0 wins from 10 | |
| 4 | Slippy Shane | 30.24 | 30.42 | 30.75 | 28 | +0.51 | ||
| 1 | Carpe Diem | 30.49 | 30.73 | 30.76 | 18 | +0.27 |
Sheffield 500 metres is a fairer test than the shorter 480-metre trip, with a longer run to the first bend giving those drawn wide more time to find position. At handicap level, trap 1 dominates with a 25.0% win rate from 208 runs, while trap 5 is the dead draw at just 13.9% from 209 runs. The composite rank 1 dog wins only 20.7% here — below average — meaning the model is weaker at handicap level. Vale Speedy should blaze to the front from trap 6 with electric early pace and a speed rating of 78 that dwarfs the field. The concern is her tendency to weaken in the closing stages, but the gap in class is enormous. Wholovesye placed in this exact race last time and could pick up the pieces late. Diamond Santa will be prominent but is drawn in the worst box.
Head and shoulders above this field on raw speed — her speed rating of 78 is 25 points clear of the next best, and her best time of 29.25 is over half a second faster than any other runner here. Has been consistently performing at a high level with ratings of 65, 63, 63, 55 in her last four runs. Shows blistering early pace and tends to make all the running. The concern is that she weakens in the closing stages and at 500 metres that fade can cost, but the speed advantage is so large that even if she ties up late, the field may not have enough ground to catch her.
Placed second in this exact race last time with a rating of 59 — proven course and distance form at handicap level. A closer by nature who stays on well through the closing stages, and her best recent rating of 61 shows she has the ability to be competitive. Trap 2 wins 18.6% from 215 runs, a workable draw. The main threat if Vale Speedy weakens late, as she is the type to keep finding through the final strides and was only beaten by a better dog last time.
Drawn in the best-performing trap at Sheffield handicap races — trap 1 wins 25.0% from 208 runs. A pure closer who relies entirely on a strong late run. Recent form is volatile with a peak of 69 two runs back but just 37 last time out at A7 grade, finishing 5th. The trap draw is her biggest asset, and if the pace collapses late she could be the one to benefit, but she needs everything to fall right and the recent form is worrying.
Drops in from A6 grade where he finished last with a rating of just 33. Recent form of 33, 40, 56 shows a clear decline from a peak of 72 six runs ago — that peak feels like a distant memory now. Trap 4 wins 17.4% from 219 runs. The handicap mark should ease the burden but his recent performances do not inspire any confidence and he would need a dramatic turnaround to be involved here.
A front runner with the second-best first bend rating in the field at 64, so she should be prominent early. Recent form of 53, 58, 51, 54 is honest at this level without being spectacular. The big problem is trap 5, which is the worst-performing draw at Sheffield HP races with just 13.9% winners from 209 runs. She has the pace to be involved but the numbers say this box rarely produces winners in handicap company here.
Key insight: T1 dominates at 25.0%. Composite R1 weak at 20.7%. Speed R1 unusually poor at 16.1%.
T1:25.0% T2:18.6% T3:16.2% T4:17.4% T5:13.9% T6:16.8%
1,244 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Carpe Diem | 21 | 100 | Closer |
2Wholovesye | 42 | 100 | Closer |
4Slippy Shane | 50 | 38 | All-Rounder |
5Diamond Santa | 61 | 50 | Front Runner |
6Vale Speedy | 100 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 280m | 450m | 480m | 483m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carpe Diem | — | — | — | — | 0.615 |
| 2 | Wholovesye | — | — | — | — | 0.603 |
| 4 | Slippy Shane | 0.596 | — | — | — | 0.610 |
| 5 | Diamond Santa | — | — | — | — | 0.601 |
| 6 | Vale Speedy | — | 0.629 | 0.594 | 0.631 | 0.590 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.