| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Easy Mixb 1y 23 | G A Rees — 14% R74 W10 P42 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 13 | - | 53 (4) | 52 (4) | 34 (6) | 22 (5) | 24 (4) | 32 (1) | 26 (4) | 26 (3) | 26 (2) | 24 (5) | 5 | 20 | - | 12 | 36 | 15 | 1 | 1/2F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Fire Lucyb 4y 23 | P D Sanderson — 11% R158 W17 P66 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 47 | 55 (3) | 41 (4) | 29 (1) | 21 (4) | 22 (3) | 42 (5) | 59 (5) | 62 (1) | 32 (1) | - | 22 | 30 | - | 25 | 37 | 30 | 3 | 3/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Listen Jessieb 2yN/R 4 | K Hodson — 16% R282 W46 P145 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 72 | 53 | 57 (2) | 57 (3) | 43 (4) | 36 (6) | 40 (6) | 52 (4) | 43 (5) | 74 (1) | 68 (1) | 52 (3) | 31 | 17 | - | 13 | 50 | 51 | - | - | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Mistley Memoryb 2y 5 | P Webster — 17% R94 W16 P36 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 37 | 61 | 56 (2) | 33 (6) | 61 (1) | 51 (3) | 34 (5) | 45 (5) | 36 (5) | 47 (3) | 36 (5) | 41 (3) | 2 | 23 | - | 18 | 44 | 33 | 4 | 12/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Droopys Paradigmb 4y 14 | J Andrews — 19% R237 W45 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 43 | 38 (6) | 39 (6) | 91 (1) | 90 (1) | 65 (2) | 70 (1) | 45 (5) | 66 (1) | 49 (3) | 58 (2) | - | 25 | - | 31 | 60 | 51 | 5 | 6/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Caremone Ladyb 5y 17 | P D Sanderson — 11% R158 W17 P66 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 64 | 49 | 66 (1) | 54 (4) | 68 (1) | 44 (4) | 57 (3) | 50 (4) | 53 (4) | 57 (2) | 61 (2) | 49 (5) | 22 | 22 | - | 21 | 55 | 52 | 2 | 9/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Listen Jessie | 29.49 | 30.13 | 29.97 | 72 | +0.48 | Model pick | |
| 6 | Caremone Lady | 29.76 | 30.12 | 30.27 | 64 | +0.51 | ||
| 5 | Droopys Paradigm | 30.01 | 30.28 | 30.21 | 58 | +0.20 | ||
| 4 | Mistley Memory | 30.10 | 30.68 | 31.02 | 37 | +0.92 | ||
| 2 | Fire Lucy | 30.35 | 30.60 | 30.71 | 39 | +0.36 | ||
| 1 | Easy Mix | 31.01 | 31.16 | 31.08 | 13 | +0.07 |
Sheffield 500-metre handicap where the model has to work harder because weight or distance adjustments level the field. Listen Jessie has the best speed rating by a wide margin at 72 — the same exceptional pace that made Swift Mel the clear pick in race 9. Caremone Lady is the second-fastest at 64 with a strong speed rating. Droopys Paradigm has shown enormous peaks of 91 and 90 in the past but his last two runs have been disastrous at 38 and 39 — a dog in freefall. This is a race where the speed numbers point clearly to Listen Jessie but the handicap format and recent placed form rather than winning form cap the confidence.
Has the best speed rating in the field by a clear margin at 72 — eight points ahead of the next fastest. Her best time of 29.49 is the quickest recorded by nearly three-tenths of a second, which at 500 metres is a meaningful advantage. Placed 3rd last time which shows she is competitive without quite getting her head in front recently. Her average performance of 50 is middling but the speed numbers suggest she has more to offer — the gap between her pace and her average rating hints at bad luck or racing incidents rather than a lack of ability. Trap 3 is the best-performing draw at HP 500m at 20.1%, which stacks with the speed advantage. Her distance suitability of 13 is low, suggesting she is more proven at other trips, but the raw speed should overcome that.
Has the second-best speed rating in the field at 64 and her best time of 29.76 is the second-quickest — she is the only dog in the field who can compete with Listen Jessie on pace. Her average performance of 55 is solid and she has been consistent with placed form at this level. Finished 4th last time but her overall profile is strong. Trap 6 wins 16.8% — below average which is her main weakness. Her suitability scores of track 22 and distance 21 are modest. The main danger because she has the pace to challenge the selection, but the outside trap works against her at a track where inside draws dominate HP races.
Has the lowest speed rating in the field at just 13, which is an extraordinary gap to the rest of the field. His best time of 31.01 is over a second and a half slower than the quickest dog — at 500 metres that is a deficit of many lengths. Average performance of 36 is the weakest in the field. Finished 4th last time. Trap 1 wins 16.5% at HP level which is the worst draw. His suitability scores of track 5 and distance 12 are negligible. Everything points against him — slowest, weakest form, worst draw, and worst suitability. Very hard to see him competing here.
Finished 4th last time with an average performance of 37. Speed rating of 39 is well below the field leaders and her best time of 30.35 is nearly a second slower than the quickest. Trap 2 wins 17.8% — below average. Her suitability scores of track 22 and distance 25 are modest. An honest runner at HP level but she lacks the pace to compete with the faster dogs in this field. Her form has been consistent but consistently below the standard needed to win here.
Finished 6th last time and has an average performance of 44 which is below the field leaders. Speed rating of 37 is well behind the top two and her best time of 30.10 is over half a second off the pace. Trap 4 wins 18.3% — middling. Her suitability scores of track 2 and distance 18 are very low, suggesting limited experience at this course and distance combination. Recent form has been poor and there is nothing in the data to suggest a bounce back is imminent. One to avoid.
A fascinating enigma — his peaks of 91 and 90 from earlier in his career are exceptional, suggesting a dog with genuine top-class ability. But his last two runs have been disastrous at 38 and 39, a collapse that suggests something has gone badly wrong — whether it is fitness, injury, or confidence. His speed rating of 58 and best time of 30.01 are still competitive, and his average performance of 60 is the highest in the field. Trap 5 wins 17.0% — below average. The temptation is to back the peaks, but a dog producing 38 and 39 in his last two runs is not one to trust with money. The freefall may have bottomed out or it may continue — impossible to know.
Key insight: HP races are harder to model. T3 best at 20.1%. Speed is king at 500m HP.
T1:16.5% T2:17.8% T3:20.1% T4:18.3% T5:17.0% T6:16.8%
1,200 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Easy Mix | — | — | No data |
2Fire Lucy | 44 | 19 | Fader |
3Listen Jessie | 51 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Mistley Memory | 58 | 0 | Fader |
5Droopys Paradigm | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Caremone Lady | 50 | 51 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 280m | 500m | 660m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Easy Mix | 0.597 | 0.623 | — |
| 2 | Fire Lucy | 0.607 | 0.613 | — |
| 4 | Mistley Memory | — | 0.614 | — |
| 5 | Droopys Paradigm | — | 0.606 | 0.615 |
| 6 | Caremone Lady | — | 0.602 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.