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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Kenderd 2y 15 | D R E Ellerker — 21% R722 W150 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 45 | 43 (5) | 31 (3) | 79 (1) | 74 (1) | 59 (2) | 70 (1) | 63 (1) | 31 (5) | 22 (1) | - | 38 | 56 | 9 | 24 | 53 | 40 | 1 | 9/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Savana Ohmy Job 2y 18 | T J Nevin — 18% R463 W83 P226 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 84 | 25 (4) | 74 (1) | 31 (2) | 26 (1) | 20 (3) | 17 (3) | 65 (3) | 29 (5) | 44 (5) | 39 (5) | 39 | 37 | 6 | 28 | 37 | 36 | 3 | 5/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Canya Tickb 2y 6 | P S Rea — 15% R523 W78 P257 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 33 (2) | 34 (1) | 24 (3) | 34 (1) | 25 (4) | 21 (2) | 17 (4) | 25 (1) | 14 (5) | 41 (1) | 44 | 40 | 30 | 43 | 28 | 33 | 2 | 11/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Tullycanna Sadieb 2y 7 | D R E Ellerker — 21% R722 W150 P384 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 48 | 34 (1) | 41 (4) | 21 (5) | 19 (6) | 40 (4) | 21 (4) | 47 (4) | 25 (1) | 24 (4) | 25 (1) | 38 | 30 | 16 | 42 | 31 | 33 | 5 | 10/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Baran Bradyd 5y 16 | P B Witchell — 16% R105 W17 P56 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 34 (1) | 24 (3) | 27 (3) | 34 (1) | 16 (6) | 25 (4) | 25 (1) | 30 (5) | 33 (3) | - | 24 | 20 | 1 | 34 | 28 | 28 | 6 | 10/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Tommys Cland 2y 7 | C Wilson — 17% R29 W5 P15 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 38 (1) | 20 (3) | 30 (3) | 30 (3) | 27 (4) | 34 (2) | 30 (4) | 25 (5) | 38 (1) | 31 (2) | 40 | 31 | 35 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 4 | 7/4F | - | |
Track suitability of 56 — the highest in this field — combined with a speed rating of 53 and average performance of 53 makes Kender the most comprehensively established D3 Harlow performer in the race. The xgb model is notably confident at 37% despite trap 1 producing only 16.9% at D3 238m — a structural deficit the model expects the ability profile to overcome. Last raced five days ago at A5 finishing fifth, which is a higher grade and the result was likely just a competitive A5 run rather than a form collapse. Composite 40 is the highest in the field and a Closer profile with early pace of 49 and bend of 45 means she will be in the mix without necessarily leading. The case is ability-first: she is the most established runner at this track and grade.
Fastest recent run time and winning momentum from D4 — the form danger stepping up in grade.
Placed D3 form recently but the worst structural draw in the race is a major negative at 238 metres.
Won recently from the best possible draw at this grade — the structural draw and recent win combine to make this a very serious threat to the pick.
Aggressive early profile is interesting but speed is below average and the last run was disappointing.
Recent D4 winner with a decent structural draw — the grade step up is the key uncertainty.
Trap 6 wins 27.8% at D3 238m — dominant structural advantage. Kender picked from T1 (16.9%) based on speed, track suitability, and xgb confidence of 37%.
T1:16.9% T2:17.1% T3:14.0% T4:18.4% T5:17.1% T6:27.8%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 238m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 238m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (238m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 220m | 238m | 245m | 253m | 277m | 415m | 450m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kender | — | 0.653 | 0.620 | — | — | 0.653 | — |
| 2 | Savana Ohmy Jo | — | 0.666 | — | 0.619 | 0.614 | 0.657 | 0.623 |
| 3 | Canya Tick | 0.635 | 0.664 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | Tullycanna Sadie | — | 0.665 | — | — | — | 0.669 | — |
| 5 | Baran Brady | — | 0.659 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | Tommys Clan | — | 0.655 | — | — | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.