Speed rating of 55 — the highest in this D4 field — is the model's primary argument for Tommys Handful despite her occupying trap 2, which generates only 17.0% of D4 238m winners. The xgb probability of 31% is the highest in the race by a considerable margin, indicating the model is very confident the speed advantage translates. She last raced eight days ago at D4, finishing sixth — which seems contradictory, but her speed data suggests this was a poor individual run rather than a fundamental ability ceiling. Speed rank 1 at D4 238m wins 20.5% across the historical sample, and if she breaks cleanly from trap 2 her pace figures suggest she can put a meaningful gap back to the field at the first bend.