| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Glenbowen Honeyb 2y 15 | G L Davidson — 14% R234 W32 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 47 | 45 (4) | 34 (5) | 23 (6) | 38 (6) | 42 (6) | 36 (6) | 66 (1) | 36 (5) | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | 42 | 34 | 3 | 13/8F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Turbulent Teddyd 3y 23 | B G Backhurst — 17% R217 W36 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 30 | 30 (6) | 44 (4) | 31 (5) | 46 (3) | 48 (4) | 54 (4) | 46 (5) | 56 (4) | 19 (2) | 68 (3) | 13 | 5 | 7 | - | 42 | 29 | 6 | 7/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Hollyoak Ethelb 2y 7 | R W Butler — 18% R217 W39 P109 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 68 | 54 | 62 (2) | 47 (4) | 58 (2) | 50 (4) | 49 (3) | 59 (3) | 69 (1) | 67 (1) | 59 (2) | 72 (1) | 40 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 57 | 60 | 1 | 7/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Hollyhill Patsyd 2y 15 | M Mavrias — 15% R313 W48 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 66 | 44 (5) | 35 (5) | 36 (6) | 39 (4) | 51 (3) | 57 (2) | 60 (1) | 52 (2) | 44 (3) | 50 (2) | 40 | 42 | 9 | 20 | 45 | 48 | 2 | 14/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Swift Quaild 1y 4 | D P Brabon — 21% R374 W79 P221 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 33 | 7 | 27 (6) | 23 (6) | 33 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5 | - | - | 27 | 27 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Springwood Juneb 3y 15 | D O Pearce — 22% R124 W27 P72 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 53 | 57 (3) | 48 (4) | 45 (5) | 47 (2) | 47 (3) | 63 (4) | 41 (5) | 46 (3) | 56 (1) | 56 (1) | 29 | - | 1 | - | 50 | 40 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
Speed rank 1 in the field by a significant margin — a rating of 68 against the next best of 59 — and ten course and distance runs at A5 491m at Central Park make her the most experienced and fastest runner in this race. Her Fader profile with high early pace (81 rating) means she is not waiting for the race to come to her — she attacks from the early stages and uses her superior pace to establish position through the critical first bend. Her form sequence of 62, 47, 58, 50, 49, 59 shows consistent competitiveness at this level with a peak of 62 just two weeks ago, placing second and then winning earlier in her recent sequence at this trip. The structural problem is clear: trap 3 wins only 10.6% at A5 491m — the worst draw at any grade at this venue. The model has selected her because the speed advantage is exceptional and her Fader profile with strong early pace mitigates the trap risk more than it would for a slower-starting dog. Speed rank 1 wins 25.6% at this trip — a very high benchmark that her profile is calibrated to meet.
Best structural trap, best bend rating, highest early pace. The main analytical threat to the model pick on structural grounds.
Decent draw and early pace but declining form. Outside chance only.
Limited form, low speed, wrong pace profile for this track. Hard to support.
Limited ability at this level. Wrong profile for this track. Very hard to support.
Recent placed form and good structural draw. Closer profile limits her first-bend impact but worth considering each-way.
Speed rank 1 wins 25.6% at A5 491m. Trap 3 is structurally the weakest draw at just 10.6% — nearly half the rate of traps 4 and 6. Hollyoak Ethel is Speed R1 in the worst structural trap.
T1:20.3% T2:20.0% T3:10.6% T4:22.7% T5:15.0% T6:22.1%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 491m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Glenbowen Honey | 67 | 0 | Fader |
2Turbulent Teddy | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Hollyoak Ethel | 81 | 0 | Fader |
4Hollyhill Patsy | 88 | 0 | Fader |
5Swift Quail | 33 | 100 | Closer |
6Springwood June | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 491m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (491m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 277m | 450m | 491m | 525m | 650m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glenbowen Honey | 0.625 | — | 0.626 | 0.572 | — |
| 2 | Turbulent Teddy | — | 0.619 | 0.630 | — | — |
| 3 | Hollyoak Ethel | — | — | 0.621 | — | — |
| 4 | Hollyhill Patsy | — | — | 0.626 | — | — |
| 5 | Swift Quail | — | — | 0.633 | — | — |
| 6 | Springwood June | — | 0.620 | 0.621 | — | 0.637 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.