| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Hollyoak Cleob 3y 5 | R W Butler — 18% R217 W39 P109 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | - | 24 (2) | 22 (5) | 28 (3) | 32 (2) | 18 (6) | 26 (4) | 23 (4) | 32 (1) | 29 (2) | 28 (2) | 30 | 27 | 37 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Barnfield Tiarab 1y | N F Carter — 17% R262 W44 P137 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 26 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 26 | 25 | 4 | 7/4F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Stophers Doritob 4y 25 | G L Davidson — 14% R234 W32 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 23 (4) | 20 (4) | 22 (4) | 25 (4) | 31 (2) | 31 (2) | 31 (2) | 26 (5) | 30 (2) | 29 (3) | 18 | 22 | 8 | 23 | 25 | 22 | 2 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Stophers Pumpkinb 1y 14 | G L Davidson — 14% R234 W32 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 23 (4) | 18 (5) | 19 (4) | 31 (1) | 23 (3) | 22 (4) | 29 (1) | 16 (5) | 19 (4) | - | 2 | 19 | 14 | 17 | 22 | 17 | 6 | 9/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Havana Shirlieb 2y 53 | B G Backhurst — 17% R217 W36 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 31 | 56 (1) | 59 (6) | 50 (2) | 55 (3) | 41 (3) | 52 (2) | 51 (2) | 38 (5) | 55 (4) | 49 (3) | 15 | - | 32 | - | 52 | 4 | 5 | 20/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Lively Gezzab 1y 4 | B G Backhurst — 17% R217 W36 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 70 | 24 (3) | 29 (3) | 43 (2) | 41 (2) | 42 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | 22 | - | - | - | 34 | 28 | 1 | 15/8 | - | |
The model pick is built on a specific combination of pace characteristics that matter at Central Park: maximum early pace rating of 100 and the highest first-bend rating in the field at 70. At a track where the tight first bend is the decisive point of every sprint race, a dog who naturally attacks that corner with explosive early movement has a structural running-style advantage that the data confirms. Her Fader profile means she uses her early pace to establish position and hold it, which is the ideal template for this trip. A placed third last week at this grade and distance shows she is currently competitive in D4 sprints here. Trap 6 at 19.5% is a reasonable structural position. The chief caveat is that only one course and distance run is on record and her recent form from a few months back suggests she was running better earlier in the season. The model has weighted the pace and bend characteristics over the limited form sample.
Speed rank 1 with fresh form, but in one of the worst structural draws. The chief analytical threat to the model pick.
Best structural draw but only one career run. Impossible to assess with confidence.
Experienced, decent speed, good structural draw. Consistent and worth considering as a place option.
Experienced but declining form trend. Hard to recommend at current level.
Long absence, wrong distance profile, worst trap. Cannot be assessed reliably. Needs to be followed before selection.
Speed rank 1 wins 23.2% at D4 277m here. Traps 2 and 3 are the structural sweet spots at over 21%. Trap 1 (14.1%) and trap 5 (13.2%) are the dead draws at this grade and distance.
T1:14.1% T2:21.8% T3:21.3% T4:18.1% T5:13.2% T6:19.5%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 277m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 277m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (277m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 253m | 277m | 450m | 650m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hollyoak Cleo | — | 0.616 | — | — |
| 2 | Barnfield Tiara | — | 0.618 | — | — |
| 3 | Stophers Dorito | — | 0.615 | — | — |
| 4 | Stophers Pumpkin | — | 0.625 | — | — |
| 5 | Havana Shirlie | — | — | 0.621 | 0.644 |
| 6 | Lively Gezza | 0.619 | 0.620 | 0.623 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.