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SR Transport Standard Trophy - Heat Two
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Greenwell Crazyd 2y 7 | J Flaherty — 23% R60 W14 P39 Trainer form — last 3 months | 42 | 35 | 61 (4) | 77 (1) | 74 (2) | 62 (5) | 71 (4) | 94 (1) | 52 (5) | 81 (2) | 74 (2) | 83 (2) | 38 | 41 | 20 | 49 | 74 | 63 | 5 | 5/1 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Optic Pharaohd 3y 14 | T C Heilbron — 15% R190 W28 P86 Trainer form — last 3 months | 45 | 56 | 56 (5) | 61 (4) | 58 0 | 70 (4) | 71 (3) | 56 (3) | 93 (5) | 65 (1) | 63 (4) | - | 62 | 48 | 15 | 48 | 69 | 63 | 2 | 25/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Ballymac Serviced 2y 8 | J J Fenwick — 19% R491 W95 P280 Trainer form — last 3 months | 57 | 59 | 67 (5) | 94 (1) | 94 (1) | 96 (1) | 50 (5) | 63 (4) | 76 (2) | 78 (2) | 95 (1) | 70 (3) | 71 | 60 | 51 | 59 | 77 | 72 | 3 | 7/4 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Howay Tonalid 2y 16 | J J Fenwick — 19% R491 W95 P280 Trainer form — last 3 months | 62 | 59 | 59 (4) | 42 (5) | 51 (2) | 77 (2) | 96 (1) | 59 (2) | 63 (3) | 95 (1) | 96 (1) | 78 (2) | 82 | 53 | 37 | 58 | 81 | 75 | 1 | 6/5F | ||
| 5 | ▶ Mossend Timd 2y 13 | G S Power — 21% R34 W7 P22 Trainer form — last 3 months | 57 | 47 | 43 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | 50 | - | 50 | - | 12 | 6 | 7/1 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Greenwell Boltd 2y 6 | J Flaherty — 23% R60 W14 P39 Trainer form — last 3 months | 42 | 12 | 55 (4) | 72 (2) | 58 (5) | 68 (4) | 74 (5) | 94 (2) | 86 (2) | 100 (1) | 73 (3) | 74 (4) | 48 | 35 | 28 | 41 | 79 | 66 | 4 | 9/1 | ||
The highest-rated runner in the field at P81 with the best speed (62) and a strong suitability profile: track 53, distance 58, trap 82, class 37. The trap suit 82 is outstanding — he has personally dominated from T4 despite T4 being the dead trap structurally (8.70% from 46 runs). This is a case where individual history defies the aggregate. His EP 75 and bend 59 mean he will lead or co-lead through the first two bends with Service, and his 5-point speed advantage (62 vs 57) should see him establish a clear lead by bend 2. The problem is CS 0 and Fader profile — on Newcastle's fair track he will weaken through the home straight. Recent form at Newcastle is strong: 1st A1, 2nd from an IV, 3rd at OR3. The A1 win is a class signal that matters — he has won at a level above tonight. Fenwick at 14% is below awareness. The case for Tonali as pick despite the Fader profile and dead trap is the CLASS OVERRIDE: P81 is the best in the field, speed 62 is clearly best, trap suit 82 shows he defies the aggregate trap data, and A1 winning form means he has genuine quality. On a fair track the Fader will weaken, but a P81 dog who leads by daylight through the first three bends may fade from 1st to 1st rather than 1st to 6th — the class gap may be enough to hold off the closers.
DANGER: Best trap (21.31%) + CS 100 + two Faders collapsing ahead = excellent race shape for a Closer. But P69 and speed 45 may limit how far he can close. The structural case is strong enough to mark as danger.
A1 win confirms quality and Flaherty at 44% is a genuine positive. But Fader CS 14, below-average speed, and inconsistent form make him vulnerable. Will track the leaders but likely caught in the straight.
P77, class suit 51 (best), trap suit 71, and OR1 win show genuine quality. But CS 0 Fader on Newcastle's fair track will weaken in the home straight. May hold for a place but unlikely to win.
Speed 57 is interesting but P 0, trap suit 2, PC 11, and Power at 0% all point away. Too many unknowns. Could run well on raw speed but impossible to pick with confidence.
P79 and A1 win show quality, Flaherty at 44% is strong. But dead trap (11.11%), worst speed (42), and EP 0 mean he starts in the worst possible position. Pharaoh in T2 offers the same closing profile from a structurally superior position.
LOW SEPARATION (3.4pp R1-R3 gap). T4 is structurally dead at 8.70% — Tonali is drawn in the worst trap. T2 is structurally best. Two CS 0 Faders (T3, T4) will set strong pace. Closers in T2 and T6 have the race shape advantage but T6 is also a dead trap.
T1:17.31% T2:21.31% T3:18.18% T4:8.70% T5:25.71% T6:11.11%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Greenwell Crazy | 56 | 14 | Fader |
2Optic Pharaoh | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Ballymac Service | 72 | 0 | Fader |
4Howay Tonali | 75 | 0 | Fader |
5Mossend Tim | 44 | 86 | Closer |
6Greenwell Bolt | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.