Loading...
SR Transport Bitches Standard Trophy - Heat One
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ballymac Neemsb 4y 25 | J J Fenwick — 19% R498 W96 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 33 | 45 | 73 (3) | 73 (2) | 58 (3) | 83 (1) | 77 (2) | 44 (6) | 72 (2) | 50 (6) | 59 (5) | 84 (1) | 42 | 27 | 36 | 29 | 64 | 53 | 4 | 18/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Drombeg Angelb 2y 17 | P Rutherford — 19% R333 W63 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 62 | 49 (5) | 67 (2) | 75 (3) | 50 (6) | 79 (2) | 92 (1) | 92 (1) | 47 (3) | 76 (3) | 67 (3) | 66 | 54 | - | 64 | 79 | 73 | 2 | 15/8 | |
| 3 | ▶ Coppice Saphireb 3y 16 | J J Fenwick — 19% R498 W96 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 63 | 63 | 60 (5) | 81 (2) | 94 (1) | 67 (4) | 83 (2) | 78 (2) | 94 (1) | 95 (1) | 56 (2) | 48 (3) | 70 | 56 | 47 | 62 | 80 | 74 | 1 | 11/8F | |
| 4 | ▶ Ballycian Babyb 4y 25 | J Flaherty — 23% R64 W15 P41 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 42 | 56 (5) | 52 (5) | 42 (6) | 64 (3) | 63 (4) | 93 (1) | 67 (2) | 54 (5) | 69 (2) | 66 (2) | 40 | 36 | 17 | 39 | 68 | 58 | 3 | 9/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Affane Foxb 2y 34 | C Watson — 26% R27 W7 P16 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 100 | 0 | 61 (4) | 75 (2) | 69 (2) | 97 (1) | 70 (5) | 85 (3) | 65 (3) | 69 (2) | 82 (2) | 87 (1) | 2 | - | 39 | - | 73 | 48 | 5 | 14/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Toddys Stormb 2y 25 | T C Heilbron — 15% R188 W29 P87 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 56 | 70 (2) | 83 (2) | 49 (5) | 56 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 | 30 | - | 30 | - | 7 | 6 | 3/1 | |
The best performer in the field at P80 and the only Front Runner in the race (EP 63, CS 53, PC 72). This is the ideal pace profile for Newcastle 480m — enough early pace to be prominent, and a closing speed ratio of 53 that means she can sustain through the long home straight rather than fading. Speed 63 is the best in the field by a clear margin (next best is 52), and at conditions where speed rank 1 wins 22.45%, holding the fastest speed is a significant edge. Suitability is excellent: track 56 is second-best, distance 62 is strong, and trap suit 70 is the best in the field — she has thrived from T3 historically. Recent form at the top level: 1st A1, 4th OR3, 2nd OR3 — a win at A1 confirms genuine class. T3 at 18.18% from 55 runs is neutral. Fenwick at 14% is a negative but the data convergence is powerful. In a LOW SEPARATION race, the combination of best P + best speed + best trap suit + Front Runner profile on a fair track makes the case very clear. She goes to the front, she sustains, she wins. Angel is the only threat and the CS advantage (53 vs 41) should prove decisive in the home straight.
DANGER: A1 form (1st, 1st, 2nd) in OR company means she's dropping in class. P79, good suitability (54/64/66), and T2 structural advantage. The Fader profile (CS 41) on Newcastle's fair track is the only concern — she may weaken enough for Saphire to pass.
Outclassed at OR level. P64 is 16 points behind the top runner, speed 33 is worst in field. Honest A3 runner in the wrong company.
Flaherty at 44% demands attention but P68 vs the top two at P79-80, worst trap, and class suit 17 all point away. A strong A3 runner outclassed at OR. The trainer is noted but the structural negatives are too many.
Speed 100 and CS 100 look exciting but track suit 0 and distance suit 0 mean no Newcastle form whatsoever. Starting dead last against two A1 winners on an unfamiliar track. Watson at 36% noted but insufficient.
Two wins from two is intriguing but class suit 0, trap suit 4, dead trap (11.11%), and no meaningful pace data in OR company makes him impossible to support. Insufficient data to assess properly.
LOW SEPARATION — R1 at 22.92% vs R3 at 19.57%, just 3.4pp gap. Sample size for OR is modest at 294 runs so trap percentages less reliable than A-grade conditions. T4 and T6 appear disadvantaged. T2 has moderate structural advantage. Speed rank 1 wins 22.45% — fastest dog matters.
T1:17.31% T2:21.31% T3:18.18% T4:8.70% T5:25.71% T6:11.11%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ballymac Neems | 51 | 47 | All-Rounder |
2Drombeg Angel | 63 | 41 | Fader |
3Coppice Saphire | 63 | 53 | Front Runner |
4Ballycian Baby | 49 | 40 | All-Rounder |
5Affane Fox | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Toddys Storm | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.