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CORAL BRIGHTON BELLE TRIAL STAKES - DIVISION C
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Montalto Giftb 2y 26 | B S Green — 20% R422 W83 P248 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 13 | 0 | 53 (5) | 54 (5) | 89 (1) | 70 (3) | 89 (1) | 75 (2) | 36 (6) | - | - | - | 61 | 28 | 61 | - | 70 | 61 | 3 | 10/3 | |
| 2 | ▶ Undergroundnickyb 3y 34 | P W Young — 18% R1322 W243 P772 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 86 | 77 | 59 (5) | 69 (4) | 71 (3) | 79 (2) | 57 (5) | 90 (1) | 90 (1) | 46 (5) | 49 (5) | 64 (4) | 47 | - | 51 | - | 70 | 62 | 2 | 4/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Beloved Brendab 5y 39 | J J Heath — 21% R377 W81 P238 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 74 | 87 (1) | 78 (1) | 54 (2) | 76 (5) | 88 (3) | 73 (1) | 50 (2) | 71 (5) | 74 (2) | - | 33 | 36 | 17 | 20 | 76 | 60 | 4 | 12/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Break Pointb 3y 35 | D D Knight — 18% R236 W42 P135 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 30 | 31 | 65 (4) | 82 (2) | 62 (4) | 91 (1) | 65 (4) | 52 (6) | 57 (3) | 82 (2) | 83 (1) | 82 (1) | 1 | 34 | 47 | - | 78 | 57 | 1 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Ari Upb 2y 24 | C Weatherall — 16% R95 W15 P51 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 95 | 25 | 58 (6) | 49 (5) | 56 (5) | 64 (4) | 69 (3) | 92 (1) | 87 (1) | 88 (1) | 31 (4) | 42 (2) | - | - | 30 | - | 65 | 42 | 5 | 5/6F | |
The T4 bias demands serious analytical attention: 31.25% win rate from 16 runs is a commanding edge despite the small sample size. Break Point's performance rating (78) is the race's highest. Form trajectory P82→P83→P82→P72→P79→P77 is rock-solid with recent runs (P79-77) indicating sustained fitness. Low speed (30) and bend (31) are superficially concerning, but Hove's galloping 515m nature rewards early position, racecraft, and ability to manage pace over raw athleticism. D D Knight (20% TWR) is above-average; more importantly, this dog's profile (steady performance, reliable form, T4 entry) aligns perfectly with the condition bias. The trap advantage is non-negotiable at this sample size—32% versus 6-15% for competitors. Form consistency (all high-70s to low-80s) combined with T4 structural edge creates a rare convergence of factors. This is not about raw class but about condition-specific probability stacking.
Trustworthy in isolation but form deterioration + T1 trap history + structural speed weakness = holding horse rather than winning prospect.
Will likely lead at halfway but lacks guile to hold favourite status; exposed to more complete competitors in a field biased toward closers.
Solid midfield prospect but structural limitations + form scatter + below-average suit profile prevent breakthrough. Mental inconsistency evident in form volatility.
On raw speed alone, a contender; in full context of T5 trap weakness, recent form collapse, structural suit mismatches, and low bend rating, this is a trap bet. Wait for evidence of reversal before backing.
T4 bias is commanding despite small sample. Ari Up's elite speed cannot overcome T5 structural disadvantage combined with recent form collapse. Break Point aligns with trap advantage, highest performance, and cleanest form trajectory.
T4 DOMINANT; T5 DEAD
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 515m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Montalto Gift | 50 | 0 | All-Rounder |
2Undergroundnicky | 55 | 100 | All-Rounder |
3Beloved Brenda | 71 | 0 | Fader |
4Break Point | 0 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Ari Up | 2 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.