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CORAL 500 MAIDENS TROPHY FINAL
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Rapido Bennyd 2y 13 | R J Holloway — 21% R287 W61 P154 Trainer form — last 3 months | 46 | 35 | 64 (3) | 66 (3) | 96 (1) | 91 (1) | 79 (2) | 69 (3) | 61 (4) | 77 (3) | 60 (3) | 76 (2) | 66 | 71 | 21 | 46 | 69 | 66 | 1 | 9/2 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Reign Of Powerd 2y 111 | S A Cahill — 19% R375 W72 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | 48 | 52 | 81 (1) | 72 (3) | 54 (4) | 83 (1) | 77 (2) | 58 (4) | 56 (4) | 62 (2) | 79 (1) | 69 (2) | 63 | 80 | 30 | 68 | 69 | 69 | 3 | 14/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Hang Tight Honeyb 1y 7 | B S Green — 20% R412 W84 P239 Trainer form — last 3 months | 44 | 59 | 76 (1) | 52 (4) | 61 (3) | 63 (2) | 72 (2) | 75 (1) | 57 (4) | 69 (3) | 33 (3) | 61 (4) | 56 | 54 | - | - | 47 | 50 | 6 | 20/1 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Harlequin Pauld 2y 16 | S A Cahill — 19% R375 W72 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | 54 | 49 | 70 (2) | 75 (5) | 82 (2) | 80 (1) | 75 (1) | 56 (2) | 70 (3) | 48 (2) | - | - | 69 | 61 | 18 | 55 | 72 | 68 | 4 | 12/1 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Bombshell Bulletb 2y 10 | B S Green — 20% R412 W84 P239 Trainer form — last 3 months | 74 | 62 | 91 (1) | 53 (4) | 89 (1) | 82 (2) | 64 (4) | 87 (1) | 87 (1) | 92 (1) | 90 (1) | 55 (5) | 18 | 65 | 23 | 55 | 77 | 66 | 2 | 8/13F | ||
| 6 | ▶ Droopys Sometimed 1y 23 | P W Young — 19% R1319 W245 P774 Trainer form — last 3 months | 53 | 42 | 76 (2) | 68 (4) | 89 (1) | 84 (1) | 60 (4) | 80 (3) | 73 (2) | 75 (2) | 76 (2) | 42 (6) | 38 | 30 | 39 | 30 | 72 | 58 | 5 | 3/1 | ||
T1 advantage is real (18.69% win rate, second-best in race) backed by large 581-run sample. Suit mean (51.0) is solid—above-average on track (71, a significant edge), distance (46, respectable), trap (66, good). Performance (69) is mid-range but consistency matters more at this class depth. R J Holloway (26% TWR) is the race's strongest trainer—a meaningful advantage in a competitive field lacking standouts. Form P69→P61→P77→P23→P60→P24 is volatile, but the pattern (P77 spike then P23 anomaly with recovery to P60-24) suggests recent fitness dip or tactical adjustment rather than systemic failure; not ideal but not disqualifying. All-Rounder profile (EP=51, CS=25) means bidding early and fading slightly—on Hove 500m's bumpy surface, holding a good position through first-bend collisions is a valuable structural trait. T1 trap + solid suit + strongest trainer in field + reasonable form (dip likely temporary) + balanced profile suited to 500m bumps = standout candidate in a weak field. Confidence is limited by genuine model uncertainty (low composite rank separation) and form volatility, but the convergence of trap advantage + trainer quality + condition-specific suit profile is the clearest narrative in an uncertain race.
Class credentials (P=77, Spd=74) are elite, but T5 trap weakness + Fader profile on bumpy 500m + confusing recent form = too much friction. Only viable danger if form stability re-emerges; current trajectory too uncertain.
Balanced profile is under-priced in this weak, competitive field. No standout, but solid form + suit + strong trainer (S A Cahill 22% TWR) = credible second choice.
Suit elite and Closer profile ideal, but recent form deterioration (P21-53) + ongoing instability = cannot lead despite structural credentials. Viable danger only if form reversal is imminent; current trajectory too negative.
Trap advantage + ideal profile, but catastrophic recent collapse (P16) + weak trainer record (Young 12% TWR) = cannot trust. Form deterioration is acute; wait for reversal evidence.
Clear outsider; lowest performance + below-average suit + erratic form collapse = no case to argue. Skip.
Large sample (581 runs) provides confidence in trap bias, but composite rank failure (1.99pp gap) indicates no clear class standout. T6 and T1 are traps to target. T5 is a persistent dead zone. Trainer quality differential (R J Holloway 26% TWR vs P W Young 12% vs S A Cahill 22%) may be decisive in balanced field. Recent form deterioration across multiple dogs (Droopys P16, Reign of Power P21-53, Bombshell Bullet volatility) suggests unstable form environment.
T5 DEAD; T6 DOMINANT; T1 strong
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Rapido Benny | 51 | 25 | All-Rounder |
2Reign Of Power | 49 | 75 | Closer |
3Hang Tight Honey | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Harlequin Paul | 52 | 25 | All-Rounder |
5Bombshell Bullet | 62 | 13 | Fader |
6Droopys Sometime | 0 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.