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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Coppice Survivord 2y 6 | J J Fenwick — 18% R498 W92 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 61 | 46 (4) | 50 (3) | 52 (2) | 53 (2) | 40 (4) | 22 (5) | 35 (1) | 28 (2) | 61 (1) | 52 (2) | 31 | 32 | 38 | 28 | 50 | 49 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Rhoden Nelsond 3yN/R 3 | S Roberts — 16% R178 W29 P98 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 41 | 43 (5) | 48 (2) | 39 (6) | 61 (3) | 61 (2) | 73 (1) | 72 (1) | 59 (3) | 53 (4) | 33 (5) | 38 | 38 | 10 | 26 | 53 | 47 | - | - | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Alnwick Martynd 3y 17 | A Harrison — 22% R543 W118 P320 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 33 | 40 (6) | 61 (1) | 48 (3) | 48 (3) | 56 (2) | 41 (6) | 55 (3) | 53 (2) | 53 (2) | 55 (2) | 35 | 30 | 32 | 26 | 50 | 50 | 4 | 13/8F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ A Bit Of Hunterd 2y 3 | S Ray — 14% R365 W50 P204 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 43 | 51 (2) | 58 (2) | 42 (5) | 55 (2) | 56 (1) | 44 (2) | 64 (2) | 43 (3) | 51 (5) | 39 (6) | 27 | 19 | 19 | 41 | 51 | 51 | 3 | 9/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Romeo Lightningd 3y 9 | J T Edgar — 17% R536 W89 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 65 | 49 (3) | 52 (2) | 41 (4) | 43 (4) | 55 (1) | 42 (3) | 49 (3) | 37 (5) | 44 (3) | 38 (4) | 29 | 28 | 6 | 23 | 46 | 43 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Darraghs Elzb 1y 11 | B J Mcphillips — 18% R55 W10 P30 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 9 | 64 | 30 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | 30 | 9 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coppice Survivor | 29.73 | 29.95 | 29.94 | 53 | +0.21 | ||
| 2 | Rhoden Nelson | 29.80 | 30.03 | 30.18 | 46 | +0.38 | Worst trap here | |
| 3 | Alnwick Martyn | 29.52 | 29.73 | 29.79 | 62 | +0.27 | Fastest + best closer | |
| 4 | A Bit Of Hunter | 29.69 | 29.88 | 29.75 | 58 | +0.06 | Best trap here | |
| 5 | Romeo Lightning | 29.90 | 30.10 | 30.09 | 45 | +0.19 | ||
| 6 | Darraghs Elz | 30.75 | 30.75 | 30.75 | 9 | 0.00 | Slowest in field |
A middle grade over the fair 480m at Newcastle, a trip where the long home straight generally gives finishers time to arrive. At this exact grade, trap 4 has been the best-performing box while trap 2 has lagged behind, so the draw carries a little weight without being decisive. Coppice Survivor and Romeo Lightning both go quick from the boxes and could easily set the race up for whoever is finishing best in the closing stages. Alnwick Martyn is the fastest of the six on the clock and has the best closing gear in the field to go with it — the sort of combination that should see her arriving late even from a moderate draw.
The fastest dog in this field on recent times and has an excellent record of finishing off strongly from off the pace — exactly the profile that suits Newcastle's long run to the line. Her trainer has a solid overall record too. Last time out she ran in a tougher handicap contest and didn't figure, but that's a different puzzle to solve to an ordinary graded race like this one.
Drawn in trap 4, the best-performing box at this exact grade and trip, and backs that up with the second-fastest time in the field and a strong closing gear. Was runner-up last time out and looks in good heart. The clearest threat to the selection given the favourable draw stacks alongside solid recent form.
Quick away and likely to be up with the pace early, but has a tendency to lose ground as the race develops, which could leave her exposed to the finishers behind. Recent form has been steady in the high 40s to low 50s without a clear standout. Could well be doing the early running for others to pick up.
Carries a decent average form figure and finishes races off well from off the pace, but is drawn in trap 2, statistically the weakest box at this grade and trip. Her trainer's overall record is modest. The running style suits the track but the draw is a genuine obstacle.
Goes fast early but tends to lose ground late, and her trainer's overall record is modest. Form has settled in the low-to-mid 40s to low 50s, competitive without standing out. More likely to be involved in setting the pace than finishing it off.
Only one recent run to assess and it was well beaten in last place, with the slowest recorded time in this entire field. There's simply nothing in the limited evidence to suggest she can trouble this field tonight.
Key insight: Trap 4 has been the strongest box at this exact grade and trip (21.9%) with trap 2 the weakest (15.4%). The blended top pick and fastest dog are similarly modest here (19.6% vs 20.0%) — a genuinely competitive grade.
T1:16.1% T2:15.4% T3:21.1% T4:21.9% T5:16.2% T6:20.2%
2,220 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Coppice Survivor | 63 | 21 | Fader |
2Rhoden Nelson | 44 | 66 | Closer |
3Alnwick Martyn | 39 | 100 | Closer |
4A Bit Of Hunter | 44 | 81 | Closer |
5Romeo Lightning | 56 | 34 | Fader |
6Darraghs Elz | 67 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coppice Survivor | 0.609 | 0.624 |
| 3 | Alnwick Martyn | — | 0.623 |
| 4 | A Bit Of Hunter | — | 0.625 |
| 5 | Romeo Lightning | — | 0.627 |
| 6 | Darraghs Elz | — | 0.641 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.