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#Lovethedogs Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Velvet Blackd 3yREP 27 | J J Fenwick — 18% R498 W92 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 51 | 44 (5) | 47 (5) | 66 (3) | 73 (3) | 62 (4) | 47 (5) | 66 (4) | 85 (1) | 61 (4) | 70 (3) | 21 | 23 | - | 9 | 59 | 45 | 3 | 9/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Wanted Bockod 2yREP 34 | S Roberts — 16% R178 W29 P98 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 47 | 47 (5) | 52 (4) | 52 (4) | 28 (5) | 71 (2) | 46 (6) | 40 (6) | 83 (1) | 70 (2) | 67 (3) | 11 | 30 | 17 | 27 | 56 | 36 | 6 | 6/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Slingshot Fyned 1yREP 7 | P Rutherford — 18% R331 W59 P166 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 45 | 71 (1) | 61 (2) | 55 (4) | 52 (4) | 59 (3) | 30 (6) | 38 (6) | 41 (5) | - | - | 22 | 7 | - | 25 | 55 | 48 | 1 | 15/8F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Romeo Brod 2yREP 5 | J T Edgar — 17% R536 W89 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 40 | 40 (6) | 66 (2) | 74 (1) | 67 (2) | 48 (5) | 59 (4) | 49 (5) | 69 (2) | - | - | 38 | 30 | 17 | 31 | 58 | 46 | 2 | 11/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Solway Aussied 2y 25 | D Little — 21% R121 W25 P71 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 56 | 58 (2) | 70 (2) | 47 (6) | 77 (1) | 65 (2) | 42 (4) | 28 (4) | 24 (3) | 49 (2) | 69 (2) | 28 | 35 | 49 | 45 | 60 | 44 | 5 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Solway Ginnyb 2yREP 6 | D Little — 21% R121 W25 P71 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 45 | 54 (4) | 55 (4) | 54 (4) | 56 (5) | 66 (3) | 76 (1) | 59 (2) | 72 (1) | 56 (2) | 44 (5) | 23 | 31 | 23 | 21 | 59 | 47 | 4 | 8/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velvet Black | 28.71 | 29.30 | 29.73 | 62 | +1.02 | Fastest + best trap | |
| 2 | Wanted Bocko | 28.99 | 29.60 | 30.23 | 44 | +1.24 | ||
| 3 | Slingshot Fyne | 29.01 | 29.79 | 29.01 | 59 | 0.00 | Stepping up in class | |
| 4 | Romeo Bro | 29.14 | 29.59 | 29.89 | 48 | +0.75 | Last time out | |
| 5 | Solway Aussie | 29.23 | 29.52 | 29.92 | 47 | +0.69 | Best average form | |
| 6 | Solway Ginny | 29.39 | 29.56 | 29.46 | 51 | +0.07 | Consistent |
Newcastle's 480m is a fair, galloping test with a long home straight that generally rewards genuine finishers, but at this A4 grade specifically the inside box has actually been the stand-out performer — trap 1 wins at over 21%, well clear of trap 5 down at under 17%, a reversal of the track's usual wide-box lean. Solway Aussie and Wanganui Wanda both go fast from the boxes and could set it up for the come-from-behind types, but with Velvet Black drawn on the rail and also the fastest recorded dog in this field, the two biggest positives in the race point at the same runner. Slingshot Fyne arrives on the back of a big performance but at a much easier grade, so there's a genuine question over whether that form holds up a level higher.
The fastest dog in this field on recent times, and drawn in trap 1 — statistically the best box at this exact grade and distance. That's a rare case of the two biggest structural factors both landing on the same runner. She's a strong finisher who does her best work from off the pace, and recent form of 44, 47, 66, 73, 62, 47 shows a peak of 73 within the last few runs, proving the ability is there even if she doesn't always hit those heights.
Won impressively last time out, but that was at an easier grade and she now steps up in class — a jump that catches plenty of dogs out. Her trainer is enjoying a fine spell at close to a 30% strike rate, which keeps her interesting despite the concern, and she's shown she can finish off a race strongly when in the mood. If she takes the step up in her stride, she's the one most capable of upsetting the pick.
A fairly balanced sort who doesn't lean heavily one way or the other in running style, but her recent times are the slowest of this six and her trainer's overall record is modest. Form has been up and down without a standout peak to point to, and there isn't a strong case to make for her tonight beyond making up the numbers.
Finished last time out well beaten and hasn't shown the sort of form recently that demands respect at this level. A balanced runner without a clear strength, and with a modest trainer record to go with it, there isn't much to recommend her over the more obvious contenders in this race.
Carries the best average performance figure of anyone in this field and was runner-up last time out already at this grade, so she's clearly competitive at the level. She goes fast early but tends to lose ground in the closing stages, and trap 5 has actually been the weakest box at this exact grade and trip — a double concern for a dog who needs things to fall her way up front.
A tidy, consistent sort who finishes races off well without ever standing out as the fastest or the strongest on paper. Form of 54, 55, 54, 56, 66, 76 shows a dog who rarely runs badly but also rarely produces a stand-out performance. Makes the frame more often than she wins.
Key insight: Trap 1 has been clearly the best box at this exact grade and trip (21.3% from 357 runs), a reversal of Newcastle's more typical wide-box lean — worth noting rather than assuming trap 5 is favoured as it usually is.
T1:21.3% T2:18.2% T3:21.0% T4:19.1% T5:16.6% T6:17.6%
2,158 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Velvet Black | 51 | 56 | Closer |
2Wanted Bocko | 49 | 44 | All-Rounder |
3Slingshot Fyne | 37 | 61 | Closer |
4Romeo Bro | 53 | 27 | All-Rounder |
5Solway Aussie | 61 | 15 | Fader |
6Solway Ginny | 43 | 63 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velvet Black | — | 0.610 |
| 2 | Wanted Bocko | 0.608 | 0.617 |
| 3 | Slingshot Fyne | — | 0.622 |
| 4 | Romeo Bro | — | 0.616 |
| 5 | Solway Aussie | 0.608 | 0.618 |
| 6 | Solway Ginny | — | 0.616 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.