Safe Journey Home A1 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Doctor Dolittled 1y 13 | Karol Ramsbottom — 24% R38 W9 P26 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | - | 69 (2) | 79 (1) | 50 (4) | 54 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 38 | 25 | - | 40 | 64 | 48 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Kristoffersond 3y 24 | Ray Melia — 0% R5 W0 P2 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 71 (4) | 79 (3) | 73 (3) | 68 (4) | 73 (2) | 92 (1) | 69 (4) | 72 (3) | 54 (4) | 71 (4) | 21 | 23 | 9 | 16 | 73 | 35 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Zanooshd 1y 13 | Declan McDonagh — 29% R17 W5 P10 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 60 (6) | 78 (3) | 88 (1) | 48 (5) | 65 (1) | 50 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | 15 | - | 20 | 66 | 48 | 6 | 2/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Lucky Duked 1y 24 | Pat Buckley — 24% R46 W11 P27 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | - | 63 (6) | 53 (5) | 68 (5) | 99 (1) | 68 (1) | 56 (2) | - | - | - | - | 22 | 15 | - | 14 | 67 | 41 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Letembeluckyd 2y 12 | - | - | 47 | - | 78 (2) | 64 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 17 | 30 | - | 16 | 72 | 49 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Bounceback Alfied 2y 34 | - | - | - | - | 69 (4) | 78 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 16 | 15 | - | 18 | 73 | 40 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kristofferson | 28.90 | 29.25 | 28.98 | 50 | +0.08 | Off since 6 Jun | |
| 4 | Lucky Duke | 28.91 | 29.21 | 29.51 | 42 | +0.60 | Worst-ish box | |
| 1 | Doctor Dolittle | 28.92 | 28.92 | 28.92 | 57 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 5 | Letembelucky | 29.12 | 29.12 | 29.12 | 47 | 0.00 | A0 dropper | |
| 3 | Zanoosh | No form at this distance — times not comparable. | — | No recent times | ||||
| 6 | Bounceback Alfie | No form at this distance — times not comparable. | — | First 525m clock | ||||
The nightcap is another A1 over the 525 metres, and the same draw arithmetic applies: trap 1 wins 23.4% at this grade while traps 4 and 6 manage barely one in ten. It is also a race full of dogs whose form lines do not compare easily — a grade-jumper, an A0 dropper, two beaten in top company last week and one back from six weeks off. Doctor Dolittle is the fascinating one: he has been winning and placing in A5 company, which reads modestly, but his 28.92 clocking is the sharpest speed figure in the field and he lands the golden box. Letembelucky drops from A0 with the ratings narrowly on his side, and Kristofferson owns the fastest raw time but has not raced since early June. Early positions off the first bend should decide it — and the inside dog has the pace to take full advantage.
A big grade jump from A5, but everything measurable says he belongs: the best speed rating in the field, a 28.92 clocking that stands up in any A1, a win and two placings from two course-and-distance starts, and Karol Ramsbottom's 25% kennel behind him. Add trap 1 — the box that wins nearly one in four at this grade — and the case is compelling. The risk is obvious: he has never faced dogs this good, and lower-grade form can flatter. But speed is the most honest currency in racing, the clock says he is the fastest dog here, and he is drawn to use it.
Drops from A0, where he ran a solid second last time out rating 78, and the ratings actually have him as the narrow top pick in this field. Two career runs is a light book but both have been high-class efforts against better dogs than these. His times are a step behind the very fastest here and trap 5 is only middling at this grade, yet class droppers with form this fresh win plenty of these. The clear and present danger.
Owns the fastest raw best time in the race at 28.90 and has the deepest course experience — ten runs, a win and two placings — with form in A0 company on the book. The catch is a six-week absence since early June; fresh dogs can fire or flop, and at A1 level there is no margin for a slow start. If the layoff has him cherry-ripe he is dangerous, and he is drawn well enough to show it.
Ran an 88 three starts back, which would put him right in this, and Declan McDonagh's 33% kennel figure is the best in the race. But he was well beaten in top company last time out, has no reliable recent clockings to measure him by, and no wins in two tries at the course and distance. Talented but hard to trust on what is visible.
The 99-rated performance four runs back shows exactly what he can do, and his 28.91 best time is a whisker off the fastest in the race. Since then, though, the ratings have sagged and he was well held in a hot contest last week. Trap 4 wins barely one in nine at this grade, which makes his task harder still. Needs to recapture the spring form, and quickly.
Just two runs on the record, most recently a fair fourth in A1 company over 550 metres, and his debut rating of 78 suggests genuine ability. But there are no reliable times on his card at this trip, trap 6 is the worst box at this grade at barely one in ten, and unexposed dogs from the widest draw need luck at the first bend. More to find on the evidence available.
Key insight: Trap 1 wins 23.4% at A1 (137 runs) and the fastest dog in the field wins 22.1% versus 19.8% for the top-rated — the speed-and-draw double is the combination to hunt at this grade.
T1:23.4% T2:22.1% T3:16.5% T4:11.0% T5:18.7% T6:10.3%
812 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 350m | 525m | 550m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doctor Dolittle | — | 0.557 | — |
| 2 | Kristofferson | — | 0.554 | — |
| 3 | Zanoosh | — | 0.558 | — |
| 4 | Lucky Duke | — | 0.553 | — |
| 5 | Letembelucky | — | 0.551 | — |
| 6 | Bounceback Alfie | — | 0.547 | 0.551 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.