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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Heaven Reversedb 2y 36 | J B Thompson — 18% R535 W97 P307 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 57 (3) | 37 (1) | 49 (3) | 35 (2) | 69 (1) | 69 (1) | 48 (4) | 56 (3) | 35 (5) | 63 (1) | 49 | 43 | 18 | 46 | 36 | 45 | 2 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Casino Brodyd 3y 4 | J M Walton — 16% R222 W36 P104 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 22 (6) | 34 (4) | 33 (3) | 32 (4) | 29 (5) | 30 (5) | 41 (1) | 26 (6) | 32 (3) | 24 (5) | 8 | 30 | 20 | 11 | 30 | 38 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Newinn Magicob 1y 24 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R570 W110 P316 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 23 (5) | 41 (5) | 53 (4) | 42 (6) | 52 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | 47 | 5 | 4 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Tromora Forced 2y 18 | C S Fereday — 16% R473 W77 P241 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 78 (1) | 72 (2) | 60 (3) | 70 (2) | 54 (6) | 72 (2) | 34 (4) | 63 (4) | 53 (5) | 71 (3) | 42 | 34 | - | - | 34 | 42 | 3 | 9/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Lukey Beeb 3y 24 | D J Page — 22% R117 W26 P64 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 41 (5) | 55 (3) | 57 (4) | 44 (5) | 42 (6) | 36 (6) | 69 (1) | 36 (6) | 33 (6) | 38 (6) | 15 | 33 | - | - | 48 | 11 | 6 | 20/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Tullymurry Nedd 1y 23 | J B Thompson — 18% R535 W97 P307 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 31 (6) | 28 (5) | 26 (6) | 31 (5) | 34 (4) | 38 (4) | 43 (1) | 24 (6) | 65 (6) | - | 19 | 16 | 18 | 9 | 32 | 39 | 1 | 15/8F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heaven Reversed | 15.72 | 15.73 | 15.73 | 53 | +0.01 | Won LTO here | |
| 2 | Casino Brody | 15.64 | 15.89 | 16.07 | 46 | +0.43 | 1 win from 10 here | |
| 3 | Newinn Magico | No form at 264m — all recent runs over 480m. Times not comparable. | — | Drops from 480m | ||||
| 4 | Tromora Force | 15.73 | 15.73 | 15.73 | 53 | 0.00 | Peak form at A3 480m | |
| 5 | Lukey Bee | No form at 264m — all recent runs over 480m. Times not comparable. | — | Drops from 480m | ||||
| 6 | Tullymurry Ned | 15.41 | 15.82 | 16.17 | 49 | +0.76 | Sprint regular | |
Monmore's 264m sprint plays much tighter than the track's fair reputation over the longer trip suggests — trap 1 is the standout box in this D2 grade at just over 21%, with the inside traps doing most of the damage and trap 4 the one to avoid at just 12% from this sample. Early pace off the traps decides this one before the home straight is even reached. Heaven Reversed jumps from the rail and was a winner last time out over this exact trip, so she should get every chance to lead and use that inside draw. Tromora Force arrives from much stronger grade at 480m and has been touching career-best figures there, but she's never raced this short and has to prove the speed translates. Newinn Magico and Lukey Bee both step down sharply in trip from 480m company too, and neither looks the type to relish a flat-out dash from the boxes. Tullymurry Ned and Casino Brody are the sprint regulars in the field but neither has been threatening to win of late.
Won last time out over this exact course and distance and drawn back in the box that's produced the most winners at this grade — trap 1 has been converting at 21% here. Her recent form has bounced around but she's shown a recent peak and the win last week over this trip carries real weight. An all-rounder in running style, which suits a sprint where early pace and a clean run from the traps matter most. Trainer J B Thompson's win rate sits modestly at 10%, but the draw and recent course-and-distance form (a win and two places from three runs here) do the talking.
Drops in dramatically from A3 grade at 480m, where she's been running some of her best figures of the season including back-to-back runs rated in the low seventies. That's a big step down in class and a big step down in trip in the same race, so there's genuine uncertainty about how the speed translates — but she's tied for the fastest recorded time in this field and the raw ability is clearly there. If the drop in trip suits, she has more than enough class in hand to trouble the front two.
A regular at this trip and grade but the form has been consistently modest, finishing sixth last time out and rarely troubling the front end in recent runs. Ten runs over this course and distance have brought just a single win. There's nothing in the recent figures to suggest a step forward is imminent, though the draw in trap 2 is workable at this track.
Drops in sharply from 480m company at A6-A7 grade and has never raced this trip before, so there's no time data to compare. Tends to finish strongly from off the pace, which is the wrong running style entirely for a flat-out 264m dash where the race is usually shaped and settled well before the closing stages. Hard to fancy given the total lack of course-and-distance evidence and a pace profile that works against her here.
Carries the highest average performance figure in the field but, like two others here, arrives from 480m company and has no recorded form at this trip. An all-rounder in running style rather than a pure held-up closer, which at least gives her a workable profile for a sprint, but the total absence of course-and-distance evidence is a real unknown. Consistent going about her running without ever standing out.
A genuine sprint specialist with all of his recent starts over this trip, and he actually holds the fastest single time recorded in the field. But the finishing positions have been modest — fifth last time out and rarely threatening the frame — and eight runs over this course and distance have brought just one win. Steady rather than progressive.
Key insight: Trap 1 is clearly the best box at this grade and distance from 879 runs, and trap 4 has been a near-dead draw at just 12.3%. The top-rated dog in the model wins 22% here, only marginally ahead of the field baseline.
T1:21.0% T2:20.4% T3:18.3% T4:12.3% T5:16.4% T6:18.2%
879 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 264m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 264m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (264m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 400m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heaven Reversed | 0.596 | — | 0.612 |
| 2 | Casino Brody | 0.602 | — | — |
| 3 | Newinn Magico | 0.611 | — | 0.612 |
| 4 | Tromora Force | 0.596 | — | 0.602 |
| 5 | Lukey Bee | — | — | 0.615 |
| 6 | Tullymurry Ned | 0.599 | 0.544 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.