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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Harlequin Eugened 3y 5 | K L Windebank — 17% R548 W92 P308 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 44 | 32 (5) | 42 (4) | 37 (4) | 39 (5) | 48 (2) | 18 (3) | 11 (6) | 45 (3) | 50 (2) | 40 (5) | 28 | 39 | 30 | 35 | 46 | 42 | 3 | 7/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Swift Youb 1y 6 | K J Cobbold — 24% R152 W36 P97 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 45 | 61 (2) | 57 (4) | 61 (4) | 72 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 24 | 51 | - | 51 | - | 15 | 5 | 3/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Rathorpe Ogieb 2y 7 | E G Samuels — 16% R633 W101 P354 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 54 | 49 (5) | 36 (3) | 41 (4) | 39 (4) | 44 (5) | 58 (4) | 42 (1) | 51 (4) | - | - | 69 | 58 | - | 54 | 51 | 54 | 1 | 2/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Ebbs Delightb 2y 6 | E G Samuels — 16% R633 W101 P354 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 46 | 51 (2) | 49 (3) | 33 (2) | 43 (5) | 22 (5) | 57 (3) | 39 (3) | - | - | - | 23 | 37 | 9 | 28 | 45 | 40 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Sweet Solerab 2y 35 | K L Windebank — 17% R548 W92 P308 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 62 | 33 (5) | 39 (4) | 26 (4) | 26 (2) | 41 (5) | 53 (4) | 31 (6) | 49 (5) | 61 (2) | 46 (5) | 32 | 38 | - | 32 | 38 | 37 | 2 | 7/4F | |
The predicted winner with composite 54, sitting in the DOMINANT T3 (27.6% from 123 runs at A7 462m Yarmouth) — the strongest structural signal in this race. In a LOW SEPARATION grade where R1 wins 23.4% vs R3 at 19.7%, the trap position is a more reliable signal than the performance ratings, and T3 is comfortably the best position. The suitability confirms the structural alignment: trap suit 69, track suit 58, distance suit 54 for a mean of 45.2 — the best in the field. He's a Fader (EP 60, CS 28) who steps up from A8, and the form reads 1st(58), 4th(42), 2nd(51), 2nd(12), 2nd(12). The win at A8 was solid and the two 2nd-places before that show he can compete. The two low-perf 2nds (12, 12) likely reflect non-competitive trials or low-grade races rather than poor form. Trainer E G Samuels at 15.4% from 39 runs at A7 is below average, which is a mild negative. The Fader profile at Yarmouth is a concern but the dominant trap position and suitability alignment provide structural confidence. In a low-separation race, this is the right kind of pick — structural advantage over marginal performance edge.
DANGER: Five consecutive placed efforts show remarkable consistency. Drops from A6 to A7 which should bring him into closer contention. T4 structural advantage (22.3%) and Closer profile suit this track. The concern is that he always runs 3rd-4th — can the grade drop push him to 1st?
Grade drop from A6 should help but form is too inconsistent to trust — two 5th-place finishes in last five runs. The All-Rounder profile suits the track but the dog doesn't inspire confidence.
Lightly raced unknown with the best speed rating (55) but the lowest composite (15) by a wide margin. Three career starts with minimal perf data make her impossible to assess confidently. Could surprise but no basis for selection.
Best bend (62) and highest EP will see her lead early, but lowest perf (38) and Fader profile (CS 32) at a track that punishes front runners mean she's a pacemaker rather than a winner. Setting the race up for the Closers behind.
977 runs. LOW SEPARATION: R1 wins 23.4% vs R3 at 19.7% — just 3.7pp gap, ratings offer minimal predictive value at A7. T3 is DOMINANT at 27.6% from 123 runs — the strongest trap signal in this race. Trap bias should lead the analysis, not performance ratings. K L Windebank at 25% from 32 runs is above average.
T1:18.7% T2:21.2% T3:27.6% T4:22.3% T5:17.8% T6:21.6%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Harlequin Eugene | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Swift You | 43 | 75 | Closer |
3Rathorpe Ogie | 60 | 28 | Fader |
4Ebbs Delight | 49 | 57 | Closer |
6Sweet Solera | 64 | 32 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.