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The Betting Without The Favourite 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Let Fly Missyb 2y 14 | John A. Linehan — 31% R16 W5 P12 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 78 (2) | 67 (5) | 51 (6) | 95 (1) | 52 (5) | 63 (4) | 34 (6) | 55 (3) | 66 (5) | 99 (1) | 57 | 51 | 40 | 42 | 67 | 53 | 1 | 4/5 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Knockacrump Bellb 3y 13 | - | - | 48 | - | 55 (6) | 76 (3) | 68 (3) | 48 (4) | 50 (2) | 67 (1) | 71 (4) | 63 (4) | 87 (1) | 66 (3) | 43 | 31 | 16 | 21 | 64 | 48 | 2 | 5/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ A Restd 3y 14 | - | - | 53 | - | 76 (2) | 66 (5) | 65 (2) | 80 (2) | 60 (5) | 79 (3) | 85 (1) | 62 (3) | 62 (4) | 71 (3) | - | 23 | 26 | 28 | 71 | 49 | 3 | 2/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Super Sydneyd 2yN/R 24 | - | - | 49 | - | 67 (4) | 73 (4) | 62 (5) | 94 (1) | 69 (5) | 57 (2) | 46 (3) | 53 (2) | - | - | 22 | 27 | 30 | 14 | 67 | 45 | - | - | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Badminton Mahlerd 2yN/R 24 | - | - | 47 | - | 54 (6) | 81 (2) | 57 (5) | 80 (3) | 54 (5) | 71 (2) | 67 (3) | 65 (5) | 63 (4) | 48 (6) | - | 20 | 8 | 18 | 65 | 40 | - | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Rosebank Maxd 4y 33 | - | - | 43 | - | 63 (4) | 60 (4) | 58 (6) | 48 (5) | 77 (2) | 86 (1) | 53 (5) | 70 (4) | 66 (3) | 62 (5) | 20 | 24 | 15 | 20 | 63 | 37 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Let Fly Missy | 28.94 | 29.26 | 28.94 | 56 | 0.00 | Top rated + best trap + top speed | |
| 2 | Knockacrump Bell | 29.08 | 29.30 | 29.27 | 48 | +0.19 | No C&D wins | |
| 3 | A Rest | 28.94 | 29.22 | 29.20 | 53 | +0.26 | Top average performance | |
| 4 | Super Sydney | 28.93 | 29.18 | 29.52 | 49 | +0.59 | Slower than best | |
| 5 | Badminton Mahler | 28.97 | 29.33 | 29.47 | 47 | +0.50 | Worst trap here | |
| 6 | Rosebank Max | 29.25 | 29.40 | 29.35 | 43 | +0.10 | Slowest in field |
The inside draw remains king over 525m at Curraheen Park, and at this A2 grade the model has actually worked well — the top-rated dog has won 26.6% of races here, a solid signal to trust. Trap 1 is the best-performing box (23.2%), trap 5 the weakest (11.7%). Tonight those factors line up on the same dog: Let Fly Missy rates top of the model, is the fastest in the field on the clock, and has the rail draw that this track rewards. Her course and distance record adds further backing with two wins and three places from nine runs. A Rest carries the strongest average performance rating in the field and looms as the biggest danger if the favourite for the draw doesn't have things her own way.
Tops the model tonight, is the fastest in the field on the clock, and gets the rail draw that has been the standout box at this grade. Form of 78, 67, 51, 95, 52, 63 shows a huge peak performance and enough consistency to trust. Her course and distance record backs it up further — two wins and three places from nine runs. With the model, the speed, and the draw all pointing the same way, this is as clear a stack as the card offers.
Carries the highest average performance rating in the field on form of 76, 66, 65, 80, 60, 79, with a couple of big peaks in there. Eight course and distance runs have produced one win and three places, a solid record. Trap 3 is a fair if unspectacular draw here (16.5%), but the strength of her recent figures makes her the clearest threat to the selection.
Modest recent form of 55, 76, 68, 48, 50, 67 without a clear standout run, and no wins from five course and distance starts. Trap 2 has been a below-average box at this grade (15.2%). Nothing in the figures points to a strong case against the leading pair tonight.
Form of 67, 73, 62, 94, 69, 57 shows a big peak a few runs back but the last-time effort was the slowest recent time in this field. Eight course and distance runs have produced one win and three places, a reasonable record. Trap 4 has been a below-average box at this grade (13.6%), adding to the case against him tonight.
Volatile form of 54, 81, 57, 80, 54, 71 shows real ability at his best but no wins from nine course and distance runs is a concern. Trap 5 is the weakest box at this grade (11.7%), the worst structural draw in the race. The peaks are there but the trap and the lack of a course and distance win work against him.
The slowest recent time in the field and modest form of 63, 60, 58, 48, 77, 86 — an old peak but nothing recent to suggest he's near that level now. One win from six course and distance runs is a fair if unremarkable record. Trap 6 has actually been a reasonable box at this grade (16.7%), but the pace figures are working against him.
Key insight: The model's top pick has a genuinely strong record at this grade (26.6% from 124 runs) — one of the more reliable composite signals on the card. Trap 1 remains the standout box (23.2%).
T1:23.2% T2:15.2% T3:16.5% T4:13.6% T5:11.7% T6:16.7%
655 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 330m | 525m | 550m | 575m | 750m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Let Fly Missy | 0.564 | 0.555 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Knockacrump Bell | — | 0.558 | — | 0.554 | 0.564 |
| 3 | A Rest | — | 0.556 | 0.549 | 0.554 | — |
| 4 | Super Sydney | — | 0.555 | — | — | — |
| 5 | Badminton Mahler | — | 0.556 | 0.562 | — | — |
| 6 | Rosebank Max | — | 0.560 | 0.556 | 0.557 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.